Here is the worst case scenario for Bitcoin this month, according to crypto analyst PlanB

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Popular crypto and bull analyst BTC PlanB describes Bitcoin’s worst-case scenario for July.

The well-followed analyst, who gained a large following for being the first to apply the stock-to-flow (S2F) model to Bitcoin, says S2F is in a ‘make or break’ phase, where it will be confirmed further. or invalidated within the next six months.

S2F has traditionally been applied to commodities like gold and silver. It predicts the performance of an asset based on the idea that the price increases as the asset becomes scarcer. PlanB used the S2F to predict Bitcoin will hit $ 288,000 this bull run, but the analyst concedes to his 609,000 followers that BTC’s bearish price action challenges the pattern.

“Closing price of $ 35,037 in June… As far as the S2F model in January 2019. The next six months will be decisive for S2F (again).”

Source: PlanB / Twitter

According to PlanB, the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin this month is a monthly close at $ 28,000. However, the Bitcoin bull says better days are ahead for the global crypto leader and notes that the worst possible monthly close for BTC in August is $ 47,000. He also claims that $ 64,000 was not the peak of the bull run.

My chain data (color overlay in the graph below) tells me that this bull is not finished and 64K was not the top. This conforms to the s2f (x) model. Also, my bottom indicator (not based on s2f) says we won’t go below 47k at the August close. pic.twitter.com/K6Hfjdp26x

– PlanB (@ 100trillionUSD) July 2, 2021

PlanB adds that it may have taken the plunge by rejecting the idea of ​​diminishing returns, or the concept that each Bitcoin bull cycle becomes less volatile and therefore priced lower than the last. Although he says the next six months will determine if this is true, he is betting that BTC will land somewhere well in the six digits by the end of the bull run.

“Looks like I ruled out the diminishing returns scenario too soon. In fact, that will be the key question for the next 6 months: 1) Was $ 64,000 the top and will we be hovering between $ 25,000 and $ 50,000? 2) Or was $ 64,000 not the top and will the bull market pick up towards S2F $ 100,000- $ 288,000?

My money is on two.

Source: PlanB / Twitter

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $ 34,727 according to CoinGecko.

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