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An analyst who predicted bitcoin’s price decline in mid-May said the cryptocurrency’s current range play would likely be resolved to the upside.
“The consolidation phase itself is neutral, but we believe a breakout is more likely than a failure,” said Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, in a research note released Monday. “Medium-term dynamics have improved based on the MACD histogram.”
Bitcoin has been trading between $ 30,000 and $ 40,000 since the end of May. The price range has narrowed further over the past two weeks, with bulls unwilling to send prices above $ 36,000 and sellers refusing to drop below $ 32,000.
Related: The Fed’s Bullard Says Now Is The Time To Cut The Stimulus; Bitcoin not moved
A big move looks late and could be bullish as the weekly chart’s MACD histogram, an indicator used to gauge strength and trend changes, has moved higher, after hitting a low in mid-June.
Consecutive shallow bars below the zero line indicate seller burnout.
The stochastic indicator continues to show oversold conditions with an impression below 20. “The medium-term oversold conditions have stabilized above $ 30,000 which has proven to be a strong support for bitcoin, ”Stockton said.
According to Stockton, the expected breakout would be confirmed on consecutive daily UTC closes above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $ 35,500. This would open the doors to the next level of resistance, near $ 44,000.
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The SMA 50 days is one of the most followed technical lines. Stockton mentioned it as the level to defend for the bulls in April, when prices were trading well above average. SMA support was broken on April 20 and was followed by a sell off in May.
At the time of going to press, bitcoin is trading little change on this day, close to $ 33,200. A break below the long-standing support at $ 30,000 could invite chart-oriented sellers. However, Stockton sees a low probability of a range failure.
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Also Read: Market Wrap: Bitcoin Falls As Traders Await June CPI Inflation Report
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