The second coming of Donald Trump

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Nov 8, 2021

by James Astill: Washington bureau chief and Lexington columnist, The Economist, Washington DC

The usual task for former presidents is to sink into the background, kindly refuse to criticize their successor and plan a library. But Donald Trump doesn’t do background or courtesy or books. In rallies, interviews, and impromptu speeches at weddings in Mar-a-Lago, his Florida estate, Mr. Trump lashed out at President Joe Biden, the media and some Republicans who dared to admit he was defeated. in the electoral 2020. repeatedly tempting the possibility of return. In 2022, that will be increasingly inevitable.

It seems only a health crisis can deny Mr Trump the second presidential bias he clearly seeks. Most Republican voters want him to run again. He raised more than $ 100m just by hinting that he would. And if the Republican establishment doesn’t roll for him, that could be because it’s too prone to distortion. Trump cheerleaders like Lindsey Graham began urging him to retain leadership of their party the day he left office. Only Mr Trump’s serious rivals for the nomination, such as Florida Governor Ron deSantis and Mike Pompeo, his former secretary of state, are his imitators. Every indication is that Republicans prefer the real thing.

It also appears that Mr Trump had earlier manipulated the politics of his return by his claim that he was robbed of electoral victory against Mr Biden by a corrupt establishment. About 80% of Republican voters say they believe that lie. It explains why Republican lawmakers postponed efforts to conduct a serious investigation into the Jan. 6 insurrection on Capitol Hill that inspired it; and also why the small number of Republicans who protested there, like Representative Liz Cheney, have been pilloried. Meanwhile, Republican lawmakers and candidates at every level are alarming the integrity of the election. The implication in many Republican -controlled states, where the misconception is more obvious, is that Democrats cannot win legitimately and special measures are therefore necessary to prevent them from winning.

Some of the 75m voters who voted for Mr Trump in 2020 seem to have been driven away by the January 6th insurgency.

At least 18 Republican-controlled state legislatures have passed election laws that would make voting difficult, many of which appear to target African-Americans and other traditional Democratic groups. Probably worse, many of those Trumpified legislatures also gained control over their states in handling elections.

This is especially troubling given how united Mr Trump’s efforts to steal the 2020 election have become. If a handful of state officials are buckled, he could create more chaos; or conceivably succeeded in his attempted theft. And that span has been reduced. Brad Raffensperger, the Republican secretary of state for Georgia who was persuaded by Mr Trump to get 11,780 votes, for example, could no longer restore his duty to defend democracy. The state Republican legislature removed its duty of power to do so.

Republican congressional primaries, most of which are set for the first half of 2022, will state how far the party has given up on this extremism. Of the 212 members of the Republican House, ten voted to impeach Mr Trump for insurgency, of which one, citing death threats, has already expressed his intention to leave politics. The other nine, including Ms Cheney, will face major Trump -backed challengers. If the majority is defeated, as is likely, Mr Trump’s grip on his party will be tighter and its adoption of election skepticism as a strategy will be more advanced. (And if they win, Trumpists will cry badly, which could have the same effect.)

The mid-term election in November 2022 will be an even more important weather-vane. They will represent the first time for Trump Republicans to expose their election conspiracies to voters in general. The leading role Mr Trump will play in their campaign will encourage them to do so. The big question, then, is whether enough middle-right voters will find that it’s not putting enough to make it a losing strategy.

It would be a severe blow to Mr Trump’s prospects to regain the presidency if they do. But there seems to be little reason to hope for that. Notably some of the nearly 75m voters who voted for Mr Trump in 2020 seem to have been driven away by his rejection of the election or by the violence on Capitol Hill. If they don’t share his authoritarian instincts, it appears they don’t take it seriously. America can come to that rue.

James Astill: Washington bureau chief and Lexington columnist, The Economist, Washington DC

This article appeared in the United States section of the print edition of The World Ahead 2022 under the headline The second coming of Donald Trump

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