the Republican playbook for 2022?

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Washington (AFP)-While U.S. Republicans hailed impressive victories in state elections in the fall, their leader may have been less pleased as he followed the results from his territory in southern Florida.

For the results of the gubernatorial races-victory in leftward-trending Virginia and an unexpected narrow defeat in deep Democratic New Jersey-proved one thing without a doubt: Republicans could win no Donald Trump.

Whisper it, but five years after full submission to the will of its energetic leader, and a year before crucial midterm elections, the Republican Party is temporarily depicting life after Donald.

“At this stage, he will be the frontrunner if he chooses to enter the 2024 presidential race,” Matt Lacombe, an assistant professor of political science at New York liberal arts school Barnard College, told AFP.

“But it is also very possible that coordination between potential candidates and party officials … will be enough to prevent him from chasing or succeeding in the second run.”

After Trump won the Republican presidential nomination in May 2016, the party abandoned its policy platform at its next two conventions, instead deciding to simply declare allegiance to its furious leader.

The Republican Party is fascinated by Donald Trump, pictured launching his presidential campaign at Trump Tower, New York, in June 2015 KENA BETANCUR AFP/File

The consensus remains that all paths to Congress go through Mar-a-Lago-that in order to succeed in Washington you have to kiss the ring in Palm Beach, praising Trump and his very loyal base of ten -ten million zealous devotees.

Republican politicians who did not follow the line knew they threatened public dressing and major challenges to the best and death threats to their families if his supporters were particularly inflamed.

“Despite losing his megaphone on social media, his endorsements still inspire grassroots supporters, drive donations, and in some cases remove competitors and force them to retire,” he said. by Tommy Goodwin, a Washington -based consultant and lobbyist, to the AFP.

Some prominent Republicans are seizing the careers of recent governors to call for a course correction, however, navigating around Trump and his “big lie” that the 2020 election was stolen from him by Democrats.

All-time low

In Virginia, Republican multimillionaire Glenn Youngkin won more than Trump’s 2020 showing in suburbs, especially among independents and women.

Trump immediately took the credit but in reality, Youngkin has soft-pedaled in support of the former reality TV star and has done everything he can in recent weeks to keep his high-profile endorser at arm’s length .

Donald Trump polarizes America, with protests like this gathering outside the Chicago Trump Tower in 2015 that were common during his presidency SCOTT OLSON GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP/File

Also in New Jersey, Republican Jack Ciattarelli started out very pro-Trump, even speaking at a “Stop the Steal” rally in 2020, but distanced himself from the former president during the campaign proper.

The suburbs are likely to be the main battlefield again next year, when the stakes will be controlled by the House of Representatives and Senate and 36 governors – but Trump is less popular there than in the countryside. .

The takeaway for many Republicans is that borrowing big from Trump’s playbook while diligently avoiding the man himself can be key.

The former president’s approval fell to a low of 34 percent after the insurgency on Jan. 6, when thousands of his supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol to stop lawmakers attesting to Joe Biden’s victory.

Trump has since issued several statements praising the insurgents and defending their threats to the life of his vice president Mike Pence.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell urged the 75-year-old real estate tycoon to stay in the midterms, telling reporters: “I think we need to talk about the future, and not the past.”

Thousands of Trump supporters clashed with police and security forces as they pushed barricades to attack the US Capitol on January 6, 2021 ROBERTO SCHMIDT AFP/File

However, Rick Scott, chairman of the Republicans ’Senate campaign committee for 2022, told NBC that any Republican would be“ stupid ”to deny Trump’s endorsement-emphasizing the problem in the face of Republicans.

“Donald Trump is where he wants to be-the center of attention, a crying child in the candy aisle of a packed grocery store, asking for more soda as he throws candy bar bags at other children, ”Peter Loge, an associate professor at George Washington University, told AFP.

“It’s hard to imagine him demurging for others to come into the spotlight.”

‘The past is never dead’

Trump’s bully pulpit wasn’t what it was before the social media ban effectively curbed his day-to-day influence and, in any case, his secret electoral sauce was never as strong as his claimed.

Republicans did well in 2020 – keeping their defeat in the Senate to the smallest possible margin and nearly taking over the House – but stumbled at the presidential level.

President Donald Trump, pictured at a campaign rally in Pittsburgh in September 2020, remains a hero to the millions of unaffected new voters he brought to the Republican goal in 2016 MANDEL NGAN AFP/File

And Trump is the first president since Herbert Hoover nearly a century ago lost the House, the Senate and the White House to one term.

“So far, Trump -endorsed candidates haven’t done well,” said Sam Nelson, associate professor and chair of the University of Toledo’s political science department.

“While major Republican candidates are actively seeking his endorsement, which is crucial to Republican races, the same endorsement can be quite risky in a general election because it motivates Democrats to vote against to Trump’s supported candidate. “

Loge believes challengers may emerge who think they have nothing to lose, along with others worried about the future of the Republican Party and the country.

“The 2022 midterm elections will also go a long way to determining Trump’s level of support in 2024,” Loge told AFP.

“If candidates supported by Trump win the primary and general elections, Trump’s stock will increase. If candidates supported by Trump are defeated in the primary and general elections, Trump’s stock will decrease.”

US President Donald Trump, pictured with new Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett in October 2020, is credited with re-creating the federal judiciary in the image of his right-wing backers Brendan Smialowski AFP/File

But Trump remains a hero to the millions of unaffected new voters he brought to the Republican cause in 2016, and is credited with re-creating the federal judiciary in the image of his right-wing supporters.

His deficit -slowing tax cuts remain popular with the working classes, although they are increasingly tilted towards the big rich over the longer term.

“William Faulkner famously wrote ‘The past is never dead. It’s not even past,'” Mark Bayer, a former chief of staff in the Senate and House, told AFP.

“The same can be said about Trump’s trance-inducing influence on the Republican Party. His grip … is as strong as when he was president.”

© 2021 AFP

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