Intel reports have repeatedly failed to forecast unrest in the Capitol

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WASHINGTON-Intelligence reports compiled by U.S. Capitol Police in the days before last year’s insurgency thought only an unlikely or distant danger of violence, though other assessments warn that crowds of potentially tens of thousands of pro-Trump demonstrators could come together in Washington to create a dangerous situation.

The documents, obtained by The Associated Press, highlight the unequal and chaotic intelligence that spread among Capitol Police officers before the riots on Jan. 6, when thousands of Donald Trump loyalists flocked to the Capitol complex and violently clashed with law enforcement officials in their efforts to disrupt the certification of the results of the 2020 presidential election. The intelligence reports specifically show how the police agency over the past few days has greatly underestimated the prospect of chaotic violence and disruption.

Conflicting intelligence produced by law enforcement leading to the unrest led to a congressional investigation into the preparations and response on Jan. 6 to officials struggling to explain how they failed to hope and plan for the deadly chaos in the Capitol that day. The shortcomings led to a revolt in the top ranks of the department, including the ouster of the then chief – though the assistant chief in charge of intelligence and protective operations at the time remained in his position.

There was, according to a strictly critical Senate report released in June, “a lack of consensus about the severity of the threat posed on January 6, 2021.”

“Months following the attack on the U.S. Capitol, there is still no consensus among USCP officials about reviewing the threat of intelligence reports prior to Jan. 6, 2021,” the report said.

Daily intelligence reports are discussed in congressional testimony and summary in the Senate report. But the AP on Friday night got the full version of the documents for Jan. 4, 5 and 6 of last year.

On each of the three days, documents show, Capitol Police ranked as “highly improbable” the possibility of acts of civil disobedience and arrests stemming from “Stop the Steal” protests planned for the Capitol. The event and nearly two dozen others were ranked on a scale of “long -distance” to “almost certain” in terms of the likelihood of large delays. All were rated as either “remote,” “highly improbable,” or “improbable,” the documents show.

“No further information was found on the exact actions planned by this group,” said a Jan. 6 report about the “Stop the Steal” rally.

The Million MAGA March planned by Trump supporters was rated in the document as “impossible,” which officials say is “possible” that organizers could show up at the Capitol complex, and that there has even been talk about among the counter-demonstrators, there is “no clear plan by those groups so far.”

Those optimistic forecasts are hard to compare with the separate intelligence assessments compiled by Capitol Police in late December and early January. Those documents, also obtained by the AP, warn that the crowds could number in the tens of thousands and include members of extremist groups such as the Proud Boys.

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A memo on January 3, 2021, for example, warned about a “significantly dangerous situation for law enforcement and the general public.”

An intelligence analysis on December 21, 2020 showed how people researched and discussed tunnels under the Capitol – commonly used by members of Congress and staff – on public websites.

Adding to the intelligence mix was a Jan. 5 bulletin prepared by the FBI’s Norfolk field office warning of the potential for “war” at the Capitol. Top Capitol Police officials said they were unaware of that document.

Capitol Police officials have repeatedly insisted that they have no definite or credible intelligence that any demonstration at the Capitol would result in a massive attack on the building. Despite investigating intelligence gaps within the agenda, Yogananda Pittman, the assistant chief in charge of intelligence at the time of the turmoil, remains in that role.

The current police chief, J. Thomas Manger, defended Pittman in an interview with the AP in September, pointing to his decision when he was acting chief to implement the recommendations made by the inspector general and expand capabilities in internal intelligence of the department so that officers do not. have to rely heavily on intelligence gathered by other law enforcement agencies.

By ERIC TUCKER and MICHAEL BALSAMO

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