Trump by the numbers: 2024 is not simple

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2022 is a critical year for Donald TrumpDonald TrumpDisaster predictions for Democrats are not guarantees of midterm failure A review of President Biden’s first year on border policy Hannity after Jan. 6 texted to McEnany that ‘no more stolen election talks’ on the five-point plan for Trump MORE. By crossing main race after main race, he put an important asset on the line: the perception that he was a winner. A strong year for Trump will set the stage for running in 2024, an announcement he is clearly itching to make.

So, how is Trump doing in the polls? Well, it’s a mixed bag.

Good news for Trump

The good news for Trump is often about the bad news for Joe Biden.

Biden’s approval began to fall with Afghanistan’s departure, and it continues to decline. From a high of 55 percent approval, FiveThirtyEight now puts Biden’s average at 42.5 percent, with 52.1 percent disapproval. The Republican-friendly Rassmussen poll had Biden at just 38 percent.

And little is indicated that will improve in the near future. Putin and Russia will continue to be a problem. Inflation continues. Biden’s progressive grab-bag (also known as “Build Back Better”), voting rights legislation, and filibuster changes are dead-on-arrival. Worse for Biden, the progressive faction in the Democratic Party is unwilling to face the reality on these issues and is forcing him to evade ineffectively.

Democratic voters are looking for someone other than Biden to bring their standard to 2024: 41 percent want “others,” while only 32 percent want Biden and 27 percent are unsure. But for the 68 percent of Democrats who leave Biden or at least are just starting to look around, there’s not much choice. Gaffe-prone Kamala HarrisKamala HarrisTrump by the numbers: 2024 didn’t simply ‘fail hard’ Biden after failing to push voting rights in the Senate. percentage. When the University of Massachusetts at Amherst asked Democratic voters their preferences for 2024, 40 percent remained loyal to Biden-including 80-year-old Bernie SandersBernie SandersDemocrats who called on the Biden administration to ease entry into the U.S. for at -risk Afghans Briahna Joy Gray: Last -minute push for voting law felt ‘perfomative’ Biden the tough weapons developing in the Postal Service MAS the most popular choice after Biden at 18 per cent, and Harris tied to Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenDemocrats have called on the Biden administration to ease entry into the U.S. for those at risk Afghans Biden is advancing the Trump Postal Service by numbers: 2024 is not simple MORE in third to only 10 percent . In a Harvard/Harris poll, Biden maintained 36 percent loyalty and Harris came in second with 16 percent. If Biden doesn’t run in 2024, Harris led Sanders in that poll by 31 percent to 15 percent as the Democrats ’first choice-with no other double-digits.

Trump was generally ahead of Biden on the ballot test in 2024. The RealClearPolitics average Trump leads Biden by nearly 5 points to 46 percent to 41 percent, with Insider Advantage giving Trump an 8 -point lead. . Polls from YouGov and Redfield and Wilton are skeptical, but show Trump-on average-with little lead.

And Trump seems to have no problem within his own party. Most Republicans want Trump to run (53 percent, according to YouGov). Trump leads significantly in all the suspected GOP primary polls with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantisRon DeSantisFlorida first lady Casey DeSantis completes chemotherapy treatment for breast cancer Trump by numbers: 2024 is not a simple Bill to ban lessons that make white students feel ‘uncomfortable’ progressing in the Florida Senate MORE second on the entire board. The YouGov poll on Dec. 13 was the closest where Trump led DeSantis by 44 percent to 23 percent, but other YouGov polls had Trump in his mid -50s, leading DeSantis by more than 35 points. TIPP gives Trump a 60 percent to 11 percent advantage.

Bad news for Trump

Not all sunshine for Trump.

When you dig up the numbers, he has big problems. For one thing, his approval rating is as bad as Biden’s. The latest FiveThirtyEight average has Trump at 43 percent approval. In addition, most Americans don’t want to see Trump run again – more than opposition to a Biden candidacy. According to YouGov, 59 percent don’t want Trump to run, while 57 percent are against Biden’s run.

In that same YouGov poll, 30 percent of Republicans want someone other than Trump to seek a GOP nomination – pointing to a disturbing trend among Republican voters. In other words, Trump’s support is not as strong as it seems. Trump regularly voted approval in the 80s among Republicans. The most recent January YouGov poll had Trump at 81 percent in favor of Republicans. Morning Consult has Trump in 83 percent favor. Yet in both polls, Biden’s overall approval numbers were better than Trump’s – though both were negative.

Even more worrying for Trump is how much his primary test vote falls from his approval ratings. Trump sees a 25-point to 35-point fall-off from his approval ratings when Republicans are asked if they really want to vote for him. His disapproval numbers of Republicans are among the young, but the percentage of Republicans who don’t want him to run is from 23 to 30 percent.

What really makes these numbers problematic for Trump is that there is almost no public opposition to him among high-profile Republicans. Only a handful of elected GOP officials and the commonly discredited “Never Trumpers” publicly broke up with him. Some high-profile Republicans argued with him on major issues or simply refused to quote him, but no one made a public break.

The outcome is that Trump is actually running unopposed for the Republican presidential nomination, but a large proportion of Republicans are still looking for others.

And Trump is worried, as evidence of his aggression against DeSantis.

Trump repeats his playbook from 2020: Attack the first face he sees in the rearview mirror. Should DeSantis decide to mount a challenge-or another Republican who agrees with Trump’s issues (like South Dakota Gov. Kristi NoemKristi Lynn NoemTrump according to the numbers: 2024 is not simply GOP governors press the Biden administration for control of infrastructure enforcement.Noem released the ad banning transgender athletes in women’s sports MORE), Trump could be full of his hands.

Many issues emerged in the background for Trump. Any round of investigations could result in an accusation. His lack of discipline when it comes to messaging and refusal to stay away from his claims of “stolen elections” have prevented him from lasering in on the many failures of the Biden administration. Trump also weighs in on Republican primary, alienates parts of the GOP base, and – more importantly – puts him at risk of supporting missing candidates.

Much of Trump’s strength has to do with the perception that he is a winner and his ability to dominate media coverage.

One thing Trump knows is how to keep the spotlight on himself – and it’s got all the oxygen from the Republican Party, making it nearly impossible for anyone to establish themselves as a true challenger.

It’s a smart strategy, but Trump is walking a dangerous path.

Despite all the harassment from Biden and the Democrats, Trump could not clear 50 percent approval in any poll. Trump’s ratings have not improved, leaving his fate at the mercy of the Democrat’s incompetence. Unless Trump can raise his approval numbers, he is in danger of any modest improvement in the fortunes of Democrats.

Keith Naughton, Ph.D., is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Naughton is a former political campaign consultant in Pennsylvania. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.

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