How to Bet the Pay-Per-View Opener (Saturday, May 7)

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Donald Cerrone vs. Joe Lauzon Odds Cerrone Odds -175 Lauzon Odds +145 Over / Under 1.5 (-140 / +100) Venue Footprint Center, Phoenix Time Approx. 10 pm ET Channel ESPN PPV Odds as of Saturday and via BetMGM.

Two established veterans, Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone and Joe Lauzon, will go head-to-head Saturday to open up the Pay-Per-View portion of the UFC 274 card. Cerrone is winless in his last six fights dating back to 2019, while Lauzon hasn’t seen action at any point over that same span.

How will this matchup play out tonight? Below, I’ll provide my analysis and projections for Saturday’s opening Pay-Per-View matchup.

For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.

Tale of the Tape Cerrone Lauzon Record 36-16 (2 NC) 28-16 Avg. Fight Time 9:44 7:53 Height 6’1 ″ 5’10 ”Weight (pounds) 155.5 lbs. 155.5 lbs. Reach (inches) 73 ″ 71 ″ Stance Orthodox Orthodox Date of birth 3/29/83 5/22/84 Sig Strikes Per Min 4.43 2.84 SS Accuracy 46% 39% SS Absorbed Per Min 4.49 5.39 SS Defense 53% 54% Take Down Avg. 1.18 2.39 TD Acc 33% 45% TD Def 74% 54% Submission Avg 1.2 2.0

Lauzon is fighting for the first time since October 2019 (a 2.5-year layoff) against a potentially shot Donald Cerrone, who is 0-5-1 in his past six bouts and coming off of a bad knockout loss to a point fighter in Alex Morono.

While it’s difficult to know what to expect from Lauzon off of a long layoff in his late thirties, it’s been a while since Cowboy looked like the best version of himself, and if anything, the layoff might have provided Lauzon both with time to heal and improve his cardio.

The latter seems unlikely: Lauzon is a fast starter who only has five to seven minutes of gas in his tank, and I suspect that “Cowboy” can take over in the second half of this fight, even at this advanced stage of his career.

Still, Cerrone typically takes a minute to get going, and Lauzon should be able to back him up early and capitalize on a chance to finish.

Ultimately, I’m expecting to see a finish on either side of this scrap, and it may come down to which fighter is more shot at this point in their respective careers. (That is to be expected for a bout between combatants with 98 career MMA fights between them.)

Cerrone vs. Lauzon Pick

I projected this fight closer to a pick’em and had to place a bet on Lauzon’s moneyline relative to my projection.

Still, given Lauzon’s penchant for starting fast, I also bet his props to win in Round 1 (+720 at WynnBet) or win inside the distance (projected +230, listed +300 at BetMGM).

You could look to roll those bets into a Live bet on Cowboy after Round 1, but I’m unconvinced that he has anything left at this stage of his career.

The Pick: Joe Lauzon (+160, 0.25u) | Joe Lauzon wins in Round 1 (+720, 0.1u) | Joe Lauzon wins Inside the Distance (+300, 0.25u)

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