The question Republicans dare not ask: Will Trump drop out of the 2024 presidential race early?

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At every Republican gathering, there’s one question no one dares to say: Will former President Trump drop out of the 2024 presidential race?

After Trump widely panned the president’s low energy announcement on Nov. 15, the first month is the campaign from hell.

In the starting gate after the midterm elections, Trump was directly blamed for the GOP’s failure to win control of the Senate and why the much-ballyhooed red wave stayed offshore. Then the headlines exploded after he dined with celebrity Nazi lovers, racists and white supremacists followed by his relentless calls for an end to the Constitution’s election rules that benefited him.

Pile at the Justice Department named a special prosecutor to investigate the events before and during the attack on the Capitol on January 6, accompanied by the Mar-a-Lago document scandal. Then add many legal setbacks after many political and business decisions.

What’s more, the first month saw major donors jump and the stratospheric rise of a young rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) a Trump acolyte. Now, Trumps 2024 campaign reality show is stranger than fiction, but the political reality is reflected in the downward trajectory of his poll numbers.

On Tuesday, The Hill reported a USA Today-Suffolk University poll showing DeSantis trailing Trump, 56 percent to 33 percent, among Republican and leaning GOP primary voters in a hypothetical match-up . Also, only 31 percent of Republican primary voters favor a Trump run.

Then on Wednesday, a Wall Street Journal poll showed DeSantis beating Trump 52 percent to 38 percent. These and other polls make headlines and generate sustained media attention, cementing Trump’s status as the inevitable front-runner.

So, the average politician would ask, Is the universe telling me to drop my campaign? Except Trump is unusual. I’m a victim, I’ll tell you. Im a victim, he said in his presidential announcement speech. Furthermore, he is a victim of his own wounds. But do Americans want to elect a victim as their next president?

However, Trump is a unique victim who will never be defeated. In his mind, he always wins, meaning the contest must be rigged if he doesn’t win. The worst name he can be called is loser which explains why he made the Big Lie to cover his 2020 reelection loss.

And what was the overall reason behind the January 6 attack? To make Trump the winner after the Electoral College results were overturned.

Looking ahead to 2023, what if Trump is indicted by the Justice Department (more likely any day) and the 2024 GOP nomination polls continue to strongly favor DeSantis? As Trump fears defeat, what course of action is available to him before the primaries begin? Certainly not a traditional campaign exit speech.

Instead, Trump could play the poor health card and retreat, a reasonable excuse after he turns 77 in June. That way, Trump saves face by not being called a loser who is just a victim of physical ailments beyond his control.

Then imagine his predictable message on social media: I won the nomination and would have won the general election, but my doctor said I was at risk for (fill in the blank) and should end my campaign.

The groundwork for such an announcement was laid on April 4, 2022. In an interview with The Washington Post, Trump hinted that health problems could be a factor in his decision to campaign in 2024, saying, You always have to -talk about health. You seem to be in good health, but tomorrow, you received a letter from a doctor saying to come see me again. That’s not good when they use the word again.

Eyebrows were raised when Trump admitted human frailty, while skeptics saw the strategic potential for him to mix health with political face-saving.

Although the Trumps on Nov. 15 presidential announcement playing his health card, he still holds the ace to save face if the following triple pressures become too intense in 2023:

First and potentially, Trump could fight the feds in a multicount federal indictment. Second and most likely, Trump is waging a nasty nomination battle against DeSantis. At first, the primary bench may be tight, but in the end, it’s more likely that the GOP nomination will be a two-man death match.

Third, Trump must be the commanding general in the GOP’s impending civil war against powerful forces that want a new face amid polls that show Trump could sink the GOP in 2024.

These three factors reinforce my hunch that Trumps presidential campaign will be over by this time next year.

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On the contrary, since Trump is known to be ruthless, narcissistic and never seem to lose, many would say that the prospect of dropping out is ridiculous. But that’s the beauty of playing the health card in late 2023. Health problems, real or fake, can be used offensively, allowing Trump to maintain control of his invincibility if he’s careful. to the inevitable major defeats.

Most importantly, the health card protects his winning persona, allowing him to play kingmaker from the sidelines.

Myra Adams writes about politics and religion for many publications. She is a RealClearPolitics contributor and served on the creative team of two GOP presidential campaigns in 2004 and 2008. Follow her on Twitter @MyraKAdams.

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