Donald Trump may not have a cakewalk in the 2024 Republican nomination

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Washington: Former US President Donald Trump may have been the de-facto leader of the Republican Party since 2016, but he is now in shock because his endorsement in the primaries of the 2024 Presidential elections is not a foregone conclusion, nor an absolute certainty as there may be other dark horses entering the fray besides front-runner and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the GOP’s most popular candidate.

The November Midterms did not go the way Trump wanted to demonstrate his absolute control of the GOP as his handpicked candidates, from Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania to TV anchor Kari Lake in Arizona, lost to Democratic candidates John Fetterman and Katie Hobbs. If any of Trump’s candidates win, it will be by a narrow margin.

Trump may not need the media because he has Twitter and Truth Social media platforms with thousands of followers supporting him, he also has his own war chest through the Make America Great Again (MAGA) and Save America campaigns that show enormous fund raising capacity even as regular donors and supporters shun him due to Midterm losses, media reports said.

But most important is the GOP nomination and a victory in the primaries. Trump still wields enormous influence within a strong conservative section of the party, but a victory in the primaries is far from certain. Most potential candidates are holding their horses now.

Closer to the nomination, it seems certain that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis will throw his hat into the primaries backed by donors and media barons such as Rupert Murdoch, a former Trump ally, who has clashed with Santis. Most GOP men feel Santis is the future of the party because he is Trump’s shadow, in the Trumpian mol without his legal baggage, political observers and pollsters feel.

Poll strategists believe that while Trump’s former VP Mike Pence will surely oppose his former boss in the primary as he retaliates for calling him a “wimp” and his supporters who raised slogans that he should be hanged for not running in the 2020 election.

Most legal authorities have made it clear that a VP has no powers except under the 25th amendment which are used only in exceptional circumstances to replace the President, in this case the election is returned to 2020. The Vice President generally a ceremonial position and important to the Senate in its tie-breaking vote powers.

Who are the dark horses holding back their stones? One is certainly Ted Cruz, the highly educated Ivy Leaguer from Texas, who fits the bill and is a strong rival to Santis because he is a better strategist with his experience in Congress.

The other is Lindsay Graham, a very prominent GOP Senator with experience and maturity who wields considerable power in the Republican Party. He is the possible spoiler for the election of Kevin McCarthy as the next Speaker of the House in 2023, if he does not play court with him. As speaker of nearly three decades Nancy Pelosi has dropped out of the race.

Coast to coast, Trump fared badly and the promised ‘Redwave’ failed to materialize. Instead, Blue States are fiercely contested by Red in the midterms. Republicans openly say Trump’s influence has benefited Democratic candidates. Accordingly, Trump’s stock is at an all-time low, his vulnerability to a challenger has never been clearer, as many media outlets have commented.

Many Republicans are looking to Trump for a new presidential candidate. The possible Presidential hopeful is Ron DeSantis. Will he challenge Trump?

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is the clear frontrunner in the race to oust Trump. DeSantis defeated Charlie Crist (by a 20-point margin) in Florida. And DeSantis quickly became a household, national level brand name by picking national level matches. While he may use gimmicks, DeSantis has challenged conventional Covid policies, criticized Disney, pushed the “Don’t Say Gay” Bill, and notably, chartered a flight of immigrants on Martha’s Vineyard in Michigan, a Democratic stronghold, to put Democrats in a tight spot. The immigrants were eventually transferred to New York and housed on cruise ships.

Despite DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence is at the top of the list. Vice Presidents are naturally well positioned to run for President. Several modern Presidents have served as Vice President before attaining the Oval Office: Biden, Bush, Ford, Nixon, LBJ, Truman. Gore and Mondale were former VPs who led their party’s ticket but failed to win the general election (Mondale lost to Reagan and Gore lost to Bush).

As VP, Pence has White House experience, national-level name recognition, in addition to emerging as a Trump alternative. After playing Trump as his henchman and sycophant, he broke away after the riots on January 6 2021, when Pence denounced Trump’s behavior.

Pence is also well positioned as a Heart lander, since he is from Indiana, a hardcore Christian belt, he represents the Evangelical Right, which is a large part of the right-wing constituency; evangelical votes matter.

Ted Cruz?

Texas Senator Ted Cruz’s stock fell a bit. But, in 2016, he was one of the favorites to win the GOP ticket. Cruz is the most prominent figure in the Republican Party. But Cruz’s surrender to Trump in 2016 – after Trump’s relentless disregard for Cruz’s wife – left him with a different kind of vibe, media reports point out.

Voters still have strong memories of Cruz’s little trip to Cancun, while Texas is freezing and millions of Cruz’s constituents are without heat or power. It didn’t go down well. Cruz has always suffered from a similar problem: But a grown-up salt-and-pepper beard seems well-designed to counter. Cruz will have a hard time wresting the nomination from Trump or DeSantis, Republican strategists believe.

What about Lindsay Graham?

Graham, a prominent GOP figure for years, is still a beta, Republican poll strategists feel. He clung to the alpha, bent his knees, and rode the coattails. He did it with John McCain when McCain was at the top of the GOP ticket. Graham did the same with Trump. On Trump, Graham’s reversal from criticizing Trump to acting as Trump’s chief defender was whiplash-inducing, media reports recall.

And Graham’s latest plays about banning abortion after 15 weeks haven’t gone over well even with right wingers. Graham won’t outlast Trump or DeSantis, strategists think.

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