2024 Republicans seek passage between Trump and DeSantis

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Prospective Republican presidential contenders face a dilemma: How to break into a field that has so far been dominated by former President Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Trump is the only candidate so far to formally launch a campaign, though DeSantis is said to be closing in on a final decision. And early polls show the two Floridians easily leading the list of 2024 contenders.

The dynamic poses a challenge for a long list of other Republicans weighing a bid for the White House, including former Vice President Mike Pence, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo , which all require a political. lane that will differentiate them from the front-runners while also resonating with the GOP base.

“I think they’re all looking for something,” said Keith Naughton, a veteran Republican strategist. “There really isn’t any of them. None of these candidates seem to have a real clear opening right now.”

It’s still very early in the process. The Iowa caucuses, the first-in-the-nation nominating contest, are more than a year away, and most would-be candidates are still in the process of hiring consultants and discussing their prospects before making any official decisions. .

But the political posturing has started. In an interview with Fox News on Thursday, Haley acknowledged that she is close to deciding on a White House bid, casting herself as the face of “generational change” in the country’s politics. At 51 years old, Haley is nearly 26 years younger than Trump.

“It’s bigger than a person. And when you look at the future of America, I think it’s time for a new generational change. I don’t think you have to be 80 years old to be a leader in DC,” Haley told Fox News. “I think we need a young generation to come in, step up, and really start fixing things.”

Haley isn’t the only one angling for a White House run. Pompeo, who served as both secretary of State and CIA director under Trump, is set to embark on a tour to promote a new book, a move widely seen as laying the groundwork for a potential bid. in 2024. Pompeo has been open about his ambitions, saying previously that he would make a decision on a White House run this spring.

And there is no shortage of potential candidates. Pence has been traveling the country for months, recently visiting churches in what many Republicans see as an effort to woo evangelical voters amid signs that Trump’s relationship with the core conservative constituency may be faltering. .

Pence also made it clear that a 2024 run is out of the question, telling The Hill in an interview last week that he will make a decision in the coming months about what his political role should be.

“We will make a decision I’m sure in the next few months about what role we can play, whether it’s as a national candidate or as a voice for our conservative values,” he said.

In a sign of DeSantis’ rising status in the party, a spokesman for South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R), another prospective presidential contender, blasted the governor earlier this month, criticizing him for failing to pass stricter abortion restrictions in Florida. DeSantis signed a 15-week procedural ban last year, though he has signaled he wants to go further.

“It’s almost like the pro-lifers don’t have a candidate. I think you have some people — I’m thinking of Pence and Noem — who want to be the candidate for them,” said one Republican strategist.

Then there are Trump critics, like former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, who has been building a 2024 campaign for months. He argued that the GOP’s disappointing performance in last year’s midterm elections should prompt the party to reevaluate its ties to Trump, and positioned himself as a Reagan-esque alternative to the bombastic former president.

But as it stands now, any Republican who jumps into the race will have a lot of catching up to do if they hope to beat Trump or DeSantis. A Morning Consult poll released this week showed Trump as the overwhelming favorite for the 2024 GOP nomination, garnering 48 percent support to DeSantis’ 31 percent.

No other potential candidates were included in that poll — Pence, Haley and former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), among others – was able to get double-digit support.

Similarly, a Harvard CAPS-Harris poll released exclusively to The Hill on Friday found Trump leading DeSantis 48 percent to 28 percent in an eight-way hypothetical primary. Pence finished in a distant third place with just 7 percent support.

A swing-state GOP strategist and operative warned that the playing field could change next year, noting that few Republicans would put Trump as the primary front-runner when he launches his first bid for White House in 2015.

Still, the strategist said, there is little interest in anyone other than Trump and DeSantis among influential GOP grassroots.

“If you would have told me in Jan. 2015 that Donald Trump would win the Republican nomination, I would have thought you were f—— crazy,” the strategist said. “But you don’t hear Pompeo from the grassroots. You don’t really hear Nikki Haley from the grassroots. Trump and DeSantis are the big names that keep coming up.”

However, things are far from smooth. Trump still faces a long list of legal troubles and investigations, as well as questions about his political instincts after defeating some of his endorsed candidates in last year’s midterm elections. DeSantis, on the other hand, remains a relatively unknown quantity on the national stage, making his political standing somewhat tenuous.

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Mike Hartley, a Republican strategist based in Ohio, said it’s too early to get a good read on the 2024 primary field and which candidates will break through the noise. Ultimately, he said, Republican voters are only concerned about one thing: who can beat President Biden.

“We were very early,” Hartley said. “There will be many ebbs and flows.”

“We will go through the process. They will go to the state and talk to the voters,” he added. “But on the minds of Republican voters, the first question is whether they can beat Joe Biden in November of 2024.”

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