‘Trump fatigue’ in New Hampshire complicates 2024 White House bid

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WEARE, New Hampshire Jan 27 (Reuters) – When Donald Trump defeated his Republican rivals in New Hampshire’s 2016 primary, the stunning win signaled in other states that the reality TV showman was a serious contender. Trump went on to win the Republican nomination and then the White House.

But as the former president kicks off his bid to regain the White House in 2024 with a speech in New Hampshire on Saturday — his first event in an early primary state — he will find the political landscape more treacherous than he has in six years. years ago, according to party activists, members and strategists in the state.

In interviews with 10 New Hampshire Republican Party officials and members, some of whom worked on Trump’s 2016 primary campaign and all of whom have been staunch Trump supporters in the past, Reuters found only three who stuck with him at the time this – including the state chair, an influential Republican figure so enthusiastic about Trump that he stepped down on Saturday to help his campaign.

Others cited exhaustion from Trump’s controversies, anger at the ongoing drama, and a desire to move on from Trump’s 2020 loss with a fresh face they thought would have a stronger chance of winning in 2024.

Trump’s campaign did not respond to requests for comment.

The former president’s public shunning is a troubling development for Trump. A loss could hurt his chances of winning the party’s nomination for president, analysts say, because New Hampshire often gives a candidate momentum as they move toward other key states.

The lack of enthusiasm for the former president and his prospects of winning in 2024 could hurt Trump as party activists do important groundwork for candidates, such as knocking on doors and making phone calls to raise funds. of money and boost turnout.

Most New Hampshire party members who have cooled on Trump have said they prefer Florida Governor Ron DeSantis as the party’s standard bearer, although DeSantis has not yet said whether he will launch a White House bid.

“Donald Trump today is a distraction for the Republican Party in trying to move forward. Donald Trump has run his course,” said Brian Sullivan, 60, a Hillsborough County Republican Committee member who supported Trump in the 2016 primary.

“I’d rather see someone else, like Ron DeSantis, in the race,” Sullivan said.

While he likes Trump’s policies and applauds his achievements in office, “he has a lot of baggage. I just don’t think he has what it takes to win the White House again,” Sullivan said.

The three Republicans who still support Trump say his New Hampshire voting base remains enthusiastic, he has terrific name recognition, and many Republican voters like his policy accomplishments while in office, giving him a strong record to run on, unlike other potential candidates.

The Trump campaign, in an email to supporters, touted a Jan. 24 poll from Emerson College Polling showing the former president leading DeSantis nationally among Republican voters, 55% to 29%.

But the willingness of members of the Republican party to criticize Trump in conversations with Reuters was remarkable. Several Republican party officials and members who have broken with Trump in the past have come under blowback and online trolling from his supporters.

Lori Davis, 67, entered grassroots Republican politics because of Trump. In 2015 when he announced his candidacy, he was inspired. He worked on his primary campaign in New Hampshire, knocking on doors for him, urging anyone he met to vote for him.

Not now.

“I like Donald Trump. But he’s too polarizing. It’s going to be a tough fight for him in this primary because of his divisiveness. People are tired of the drama,” Davis said at his home over a meal. of burgers.

I can see that people like DeSantis. He has a lot of Trump philosophy, but not as bombastic, he’s not attacking people 24/7. People are tired of that. It gives them a headache,” Davis said.

“PEOPLE WANT TO WIN”

It’s not just New Hampshire where Trump faces potential headwinds. Several billionaire donors who have helped fund his past campaigns have yet to donate. They included hedge fund billionaire Robert Mercer and his daughter, Rebekah Mercer. He has already donated to DeSantis’ political committee.

New Hampshire plays a major role in the selection of presidential candidates because it is the second nominating contest after the Iowa caucuses.

While the winner of New Hampshire’s Republican primary has not won the state in a general election since George W. Bush in 2000, it is still viewed as a critical test in the nomination process.

Chris Maidment, chairman of the Hillsborough County Republican Committee, described the mood among many members as “Trump fatigue,” adding: “I’m really open-minded this time. There are a lot of exciting potential candidates.”

Most of the candidates Trump endorsed in competitive races during November’s congressional elections lost to Democrats. During Trump’s four years as president after his 2016 victory over Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republicans lost control of both houses of Congress, before he lost the 2020 election to his Democratic opponent, Joe Biden.

“People want a winner and elections are about the future. Republicans want someone who can win and not be a pushover for the Left. Trump represented that then but I’m not sure he represents that now,” said Neil Levesque, executive director at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College.

In a poll of likely Republican primary voters in Levesque’s New Hampshire before the November election, Trump trailed DeSantis 38% to 47%. Overall, 50% of state voters have a “strongly unfavorable” impression of Trump, with only 22% “strongly favorable”.

Another complicating factor for Trump this time around is that independents can vote in New Hampshire’s Republican and Democratic primaries. If Biden runs again, the Democratic primary is unlikely to be contested, and many independents may choose to vote in the Republican primary where their vote will have a greater impact.

“Independents are going where the action is. A lot of independents are going to vote against Trump. And that’s not good news for him”, said Tom Rath, a Republican strategist in New Hampshire.

Polls in New Hampshire and elsewhere show Trump is unpopular with most independents.

Despite signs of Trump fatigue, he will be a formidable candidate in the New Hampshire primary, some party strategists said.

“He’s still going into 2023 as the frontrunner. He’s got name ID, a strong base of supporters. His influence is still quite significant,” said Jim Merrill, a veteran New Hampshire Republican strategist.

Trump is the only Republican to declare his candidacy so far, though it’s likely the field of rivals will grow this year. Others expected to enter the race are DeSantis, Trump’s former vice president, Mike Pence, and Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina.

LITERATURE THE REAL DEAL

For Steve Stepanek, a former state representative who was the first elected official in New Hampshire to endorse Trump in 2015 and chairman of the Republican Party of New Hampshire, potential opponents would be pale imitations of the real thing.

He remains a staunch supporter of the former president and will soon resign as party chair because he wants to be involved in Trump’s latest campaign, he told Reuters.

A replacement will be elected at a party meeting on Saturday, where Trump will be the keynote speaker. It is not yet clear whether Stepanek’s departure will loosen Trump’s grip on the party machinery.

Stepanek accused Republican Party naysayers of being Republican insiders, not the ordinary voters who decide primary elections.

“Are you going to believe a candidate who says I’m going to continue Trump’s policies — or the person who’s Trump’s policies?”

Reporting by Tim Reid in Weare, New Hampshire; Editing by Ross Colvin and Suzanne Goldenberg

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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