Can any Republican beat Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis in 2024?

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CNN —

Polls show the 2024 Republican primary is a contest between former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and others. All other groups include candidates like former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, who appear to be itching to get into the race despite polls only in the single digits.

But if Trump and DeSantis are the front-runners, what are the chances that one of the single-digit candidates (eg, Haley or former Vice President Mike Pence) could actually win the nomination?

It’s not without it, but the odds clearly favor either Trump or DeSantis to be the 2024 GOP nominee.

Trump (polling in the low 40s) and DeSantis (in the low 30s) are over 30% nationally on average, while no other candidate reaches double digits.

Historically, only a few candidates have polled above 35%, on average, in early voting (ie, January through June of the year before the primary) in the modern primary era (ie, since 1972). Most of them won the nomination.

Two unfamiliar to most political enthusiasts: Democrats Ted Kennedy in 1980 and Hillary Clinton in 2008. The other six (not counting most unopposed incumbents) each went on to be the nominee in their party, meaning that 75% of candidates who were at 35% or higher in early polling went on to win their primary.

Importantly for this year, Kennedy and Clinton did not lose to candidates who polled poorly in the primary. The last nominees (President Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Barack Obama in 2008) both polled above 20% during the January to June period of the year before the primary.

In fact, 40% of the last nominees in competitive primaries since 1972 have voted in the 20% to 35% range, a recent example being now-President Joe Biden in 2019.

Now, does this mean that anyone in this group of all others (ie, the polls in one number) is doomed from the start? Not exact.

For one thing, history does not necessarily tell us what will happen in the future.

Additionally, there were single-digit candidates in early polls who ended up winning the nomination. Trump is one of them. Remember, he struggled to reach 5% in early 2015 before gaining a national poll lead that he rarely relinquished the rest of the primary season.

Trump isn’t the only candidate who polled in the single digits early to win his parties. George McGovern in 1972, Carter in 1976, Michael Dukakis in 1988 and Bill Clinton in 1992 barely registered in the national polls during the January through June period before the primaries began.

All told, five of the 17 candidates who won nominations without an incumbent running in the primary (that is, 30% of them) polled under 10% in the first polls.

However, single-digit candidates face a two-fold problem this cycle.

The first is that most candidates polled below 10% in early polls. So while it wouldn’t really be surprising for a candidate from this group to ultimately win the nomination, the odds of any candidate doing so are low. Historically, less than 5% of candidates who vote for a number at this point actually win the nomination.

The second is that it is worth examining the years in which the first single-digit candidates emerged as winners.

Carter, Dukakis, Bill Clinton and Trump all ran in years where no one had a lead (or leads) in the polls. The leading candidates in the national primary polls in each of those cycles were at 20% or less. The previous poll leader in 1992 was New York Gov. Mario Cuomo (at 20%), and he didn’t run.

There was an exception, of course.

McGovern won the Democratic nomination in 1972 with two candidates voting in the 20s and one in the low 30s in the first polls of that primary. I’m not sure how applicable the 1972 cycle is to 2024 since that’s the first year of the modern primary era, when it’s unclear how early state momentum might dictate the nomination process. Still, the McGoverns’ win was remarkable.

Another notable surge in the polls occurred in the 1984 Democratic primary. Gary Hart did not get more than 5% in the national polls in the first or second half of 1983. The Colorado senator was far behind the eventual nominee (former Vice President Walter Mondale) who polled in the 30s in the first half of 1983 and in the 40s in the second half of the year.

While Mondale was the eventual winner, Hart finished close behind. The 1984 race (like potentially 2024, with DeSantis) featured another highly hyped candidate (Ohio Sen. John Glenn) polling more than 20% in early voting. Glenn, of course, flashed out.

Again, I’m not saying DeSantis is like Glenn. My belief is that the 2024 GOP nominee will likely be either DeSantis or Trump.

But what I am saying is that while Trump or DeSantis are the likely favorites for the nomination, there is enough history of low-polling candidates eventually gaining traction to be at least open to the idea that a Haley, Pence or someone else can, if nothing else, make things interesting when it comes time to vote.

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