Feeling ‘overwhelmed’ and ‘fatigued,’ some GOP voters are looking beyond Trump

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Almost all of the focus group participants supported Donald Trump in 2020 and said they would vote for him again against President Biden in 2024. But things got complicated when the moderator asked an emotion they felt today when they saw Trump in television or computer screens.

“That’s a tough one. That’s a tough one,” said Angela, 53, from South Carolina. “Just because of the way they treated him.” She spoke about Trump’s opponents trying to hurt him both in office and since he left the White House. “It’s more of an embarrassment to him for what they went through. I’m ashamed of him.”

Nancy, 69, from Iowa, said: “The current Trump is not the Trump I voted for. I feel like he’s shown things, qualities and non-characteristics, whatever, that I don’t care about right now.”

Tracking the presidential candidates for the 2024 election

Deborah, 67, also from South Carolina, described herself as “stunned” by the question. “I was proud when he was our president, but you know, there were so many things … the way they treated him and everything,” he said, referring to Trump’s critics.

Unengaged Republican voters in early primary states are weighing former president Donald Trump’s 2024 election bid. (Video: Engagious/Schlesinger)

Such skepticism and ambiguity dominated two recent focus groups of convinced Republican primary voters from the key early nominating states of New Hampshire, Nevada, Iowa and South Carolina. In the polls of 14 voters, conducted for The Washington Post by research firms Engagious and Schlesinger, most stood by their past support for the once undisputed Republican leader. The future is a different issue, with most saying they would have voted for someone else in the GOP primary. Half of the group said they would vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Two people chose “pride” and “hopeful” as their emotions when seeing Trump, but others pulled from the opposite end of their emotional range, with words like “anxious,” “neutral,” “frustrated,” “nervous,” “overwhelmed,” “tired,” “embarrassed,” “annoyed,” and “crazy.” Most were careful not to criticize Trump directly — they praised his presidency and had critical views of Biden — but something has changed. They talk about him as a flawed victim, not as the unspeakable political harp-leader who took the party by storm in 2016.

“To borrow a phrase from the late Ross Perot, what we’ve heard is the tremendous sucking sound of persuasive GOP voters moving away from Donald Trump,” said Rich Thau, moderator of the focus groups and president of Engagious, a company that specializes in policy messaging. test. “People tend to vote more on what they feel than what they think. And Trump is evoking more negative than positive emotions among these voters.

Uncommitted Republican voters in early primary states weigh in on a potential Biden re-election in 2024. (Video: Engagious/Schlesinger)

Unlike public opinion surveys, focus group panels, which are a type of qualitative research, do not offer a meaningful statistical representation of an entire universe of voters. But they allow for a deeper understanding of the trends that have become apparent in public polling. Focus group participants agreed to be video recorded but are identified only by their first name to protect their privacy.

Trump found himself at the start of the presidential campaign with significant, loyal support. But at the moment there is a larger universe of Republican voters with concerns and a wandering eye.

An early February Washington Post-ABC News poll found that 44 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents want the party to nominate Trump in 2024 while 49 percent want “other.” One-third of Republicans said they would feel “enthusiastic” if Trump won another term as president, while 46 percent said they would feel “pleased but not enthusiastic” and 20 percent felt neither. happy or angry.

A Quinnipiac University poll released last week found Trump with a six-point edge over DeSantis, but a Monmouth University poll using an open-ended question found the two tied at 33 percent each.

The fourteen people who gathered on Feb. 13 for the two focus group panels included a mix of voters by education and age. The Schlesinger Group recruited them as Republican and Republican-leaning independent registered voters in early primary or caucus states who said they were undecided or likely to support someone other than their current preference. This filter likely excludes many Trump supporters who are more committed to their candidate in the public poll.

Uncommitted Republican voters in early primary states weigh in on their ideal 2024 presidential candidate. (Video: Engagious/Schlesinger)

All but two voted for Trump in 2016 and all but one said they would support Trump over Biden. When asked who they would vote for today for the nomination, three said Trump, seven said DeSantis and two said former UN ambassador Nikki Haley. Both said they didn’t know.

One issue they united was concern about the age of the candidates running for president, including Trump, 76, and Biden, 80. Asked to name the age at which no candidate for president should be allowed to run, the highest answer came in at 72, with the average response coming in at 68. Asked to name an ideal age for a president on Inauguration Day, no one said a number higher than 64, which was the average response is entering 51.

Barbara, 63, from Iowa, said she would likely vote for Trump again if he ran. “But if someone else came in there to run who was younger, and more of, you know, all the views, I’d probably vote for them,” he said.

Alternatives to Trump, among groups, remain unsettled, with only a few respondents able to identify images of potential presidential candidates beyond Trump, DeSantis and former vice president Mike Pence. But early polls of DeSantis suggested he was now living up to the pugilistic and domineering reputation Trump enjoyed in 2016.

One person described her as “kicking Disney’s ass,” a reference to DeSantis’ attacks on the media giant for resisting its efforts to prevent discussions of gender identity and same-sex relationships until the third grade. . “He’s brave and he can also be a firecracker,” said another.

“When I see him speak, I really believe what he’s saying,” said Roslyn, 66, from Nevada.

“I think Trump is just a showman, and I think DeSantis really has teeth,” Nancy said.

“He’s clearly a threat to Trump, who’s not happy with him,” said Rick, 68, from Nevada.

Focus group participants largely said that Trump’s opposition to rivals would not prevent them from voting for someone else. They expressed confidence that he would do so. But they are also curious as to who will prevail in the upcoming clash.

“Trump attacks anyone who disagrees with him, and it doesn’t matter who the party is,” explained Larry, 61, from South Carolina. “It’s hard to take seriously.”

“I think DeSantis is the most desirable competitor to Trump, if anyone is going to unseat him, it’s him,” said Clark, 23, of New Hampshire. “I also like the fact that DeSantis is younger, but I think I’m still going to lean on Trump.”

Haley also received many positive reviews, with many citing her Indian ancestry and the fact that she is a woman as assets that would help her reach more independent voters. Some voters from South Carolina remembered him as a strong governor. “He checks a lot of boxes,” Larry said. “So people who like to check boxes will like him.”

Any concern with Trump is easily overridden by concern about his successor. Fox News, social media, ABC News and the Drudge Report are the most popular sources of news and information for voters. They had an unwaveringly negative view of the current president.

“He’s a bit of a marionette. I don’t know who’s pulling his strings, but it sure ain’t him,” Larry said.

Chris, 37, from New Hampshire, said: “I don’t understand why people are voting for him. It just boggles my mind. What do you see in this person that I don’t? Explain it to me like I’m 5. Why do you think he is a good candidate?”

Jillian Rothschild contributed to this report.

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