Opinion | The Future of the Republican Party is on the Line

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This way of thinking in a Republican primary is a new thing. Once upon a time, almost every Republican wanted to be a Reagan Republican. If the Trump camp has its way, Reaganism will fade in 2016 to a positive weakness in 2024.

There are layers to this intra-Republican debate. It is certainly true that conservatives have become so obsessed with identifying themselves with Ronald Reagan. By the time something becomes an -ism, it tends to be simplified and ossified, and so it is.

Then, theres the sheer passing of time. Reagan left office 34 years ago. In 2020, more than half of Americans are under the age of 40, meaning they have no real memories of Reagan. Trying to run again on a version of the Reagan platform would be like doing the same thing with the program of Abraham Lincoln in 1899, or a loyal acolyte of Joe Biden in the 2050s.

Neither the pro- or anti-Reagan side did justice to the real, historical political figure, instead creating an uncomplicated archetype to embrace or reject. Reagan was right about a lot, wrong about a few things (immigration), and flexible and practical in the way a successful practical politician needs to be.

Reagan was a free marketeer, but not a doctrinaire. He accepted the reality of the New Deal.

He was a free trader, but acted to protect American car makers and Harley Davidson from Japanese imports.

If he is hawkish on foreign policy, he is always cautious. The defense budget grew, and he insisted on the deployment of intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe. He continued the missile defense in the face of fierce opposition. He was relentless in his anti-Soviet rhetoric and armed anti-Soviet guerrillas. He vigorously promoted human rights.

On the other hand, he was cautious about deploying US troops abroad, and withdrew from Lebanon after the devastating attack on the Marine barracks in Beirut. Despite calling the Soviet Union an evil empire, he was willing to talk to Mikhail Gorbachev and even considered getting rid of nuclear weapons at a summit with Gorbachev in Reykjavik.

Some populist nationalists tend to think of pre-Trump conservatism as complacency on social issues. But Reagan allied himself with the religious right and wrote an anti-abortion book while in office. He banned the use of federal funds for abortions abroad. He wants a constitutional amendment to allow prayer in schools and says, the truth is, politics and morality are inseparable.

If Reagan later came to define conventional Republicanism, he took on the liberal establishment of his party and brought a populist voice to issues like the Panama Canal and crime.

So he is more complicated than advertised, but the so-called Zombie Reaganism that populists inveigh against is a real phenomenon.

This thoughtless version of Reaganism does not take into account how the circumstances of the country have changed in the last 30 years. Get tax. The burden of federal income taxes is not nearly as heavy on middle-class families as it was in the 1970s and 1980s, when inflation pushed them into higher tax brackets. And Republicans have cut taxes so many times, any positive economic impact of further cuts will be limited.

However, for the longest time, the standard Republican approach to local policy, with some differences in emphasis, has been to cut taxes and reduce the debt, with everything else fading into the background. As it happens, Trump also ran on these two priorities in 2016, although he was only serious about tax cuts. Unschooled in Republican orthodoxies, Trump has mixed new policies and attitudes, on the border, rights, trade and foreign policy. He expanded the Overton window further than most thought possible.

Other Republicans should similarly develop an agenda to address the challenges of today, not the challenges of the 1970s (although the problems of inflation and crime were common during the same period).

All that said, the Reagans’ achievements were very important and should be recognized as such by all Republican factions. He set the predicate for winning the Cold War without firing a shot. He killed inflation, both by keeping Federal Reserve Chair Paul Volcker, despite considerable political pressure to buckle, and by pursuing pro-growth policies that created more supply in the economy. He ended the energy crisis. His administration gave aid to the emerging conservative legal movement. He brought a new constituency to the Republican Party, the so-called Reagan Democrats (an analogue of the Democrats who would vote for Trump), and forced a turn to the center of the Democratic Party under Bill Clinton. He changed the mood of the country.

As a political matter, it makes no sense for Trump to attack Reagan by name, given his standing in the party.

A December 2020 Pew Research survey found that 42 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents chose Reagan when asked which president did the best job over the past four decades, and 37 percent chose Trump .

Even Trump partisans feel warm to Reagan: 73 percent make him their second choice.

At the end of the day, Reagan cannot be separated from the Cold War context that defined him and the conservative movement of his time. There is no substitute for the coherence brought by that long-standing rivalry, a truly existential struggle that has activated all elements of the Republican coalition: Defense hawks, obviously, but also social conservatives, who opposed to godless communism, and the free-marketeers were determined to see. capitalism triumphs over unchecked statism.

There has been a fracture in Republican politics ever since. The famous Reaganite three-legged stool is rickety but still standing. Freedom is a central theme for both DeSantis and Nikki Haley, and the House Freedom Caucus will put spending cuts front and center this year; the crusade against all things awakened can be seen as another front in the parties long-standing fight for traditional values; and the GOP’s withering reaction to Bidens Afghan withdrawal and its support for aid to Ukraine so far shows its reflex is still toward strength in foreign affairs.

Meanwhile, Reagan’s example, like that of all great and good statesmen, offers far-reaching lessons to be drawn on how to balance prudence and principle, how to influence a broad vision. in politics, how sad what is the country’s problem. without giving in to despair, and how to build coalitions.

The latter could be most useful for Ron DeSantis once he enters the nomination battle. Trump wants to tempt DeSantis to try to follow him on his Maga More Than Ever messaging, but the governor can only go this route. He will not remove enough Trump voters to defeat Trump. To win the nomination, DeSantis will need to win over a segment of Trump’s populists while locking in Republican voters who prefer Reagan to Trump. (Perhaps he reached this type of voter in his speech to a packed auditorium at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library while Trump was at CPAC.)

Trump forces will try to make DeSantis roots in the party of Reagan who disqualified. Instead, played right, it can be a strength.

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