Trump is losing the Grassroots

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It’s still early in the campaign, and many respondents are not yet committed to a presidential candidate. But the survey results are a potentially ominous sign for Trump as he seeks to return to the White House in the face of opposition from key party actors.

County chairs are a group whose opinions are worth gauging. County chairs are more politically engaged and committed to their party than the average American voter; they will show up at the polls on the main day. They are both activists and well-known local people in the party, which will likely help influence how others view the opponents in 2024. At the same time, the county seats are somewhat removed from the highest level of leadership — they are not party elites at the national or even state level. They are still part of the grassroots. County chairs are the kind of people successful candidates want on their side during the “invisible primary,” when fundraising and endorsements and polling start to matter.

A note about method. In my capacity as director of the Center on American Politics at the University of Denver, I sent this survey to nearly 3,000 Republican Party precincts — for every county in the country — and ultimately 187 responded. It’s less than I’d like, but it’s certainly enough to perform a statistically useful analysis. There is no obvious bias embedded within the survey that I can find; respondents came from every region of the country, from Florida to North Dakota to Rhode Island; 91 percent described themselves as “conservative” or “very conservative.”

For this survey, I asked county chairs about their candidate preferences in a few different ways. For the first cut, I asked if they were committed to supporting a particular candidate in the presidential race at this point. Only about half reported that they were not currently committed to a candidate. Of those who said they had a choice, 19 percent said DeSantis, the Florida governor, and 17 percent said Trump.

This in itself is quite telling. Trump’s grip on the Republican Party was once legendary, and he is one of only two GOP candidates to officially announce for president in 2024, the other being former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. The former president could certainly end up with the Republican nominee again, and his attacks on DeSantis have only just begun. But the fact that Trump was not this group’s first choice and that fewer than one in five county seats went to him suggests some major reservations.

I have provided anonymity to respondents, but some have allowed me to provide their names and comments. One was Kylie Crosskno, chairwoman of the Republican Party of Mississippi County, Ark., who said, “Although I don’t live in Florida, I support the conservative actions Mr. DeSantis has taken. He is not afraid to stand up for the principles and values ​​of the Republican Party.”

I then sought to determine a relatively softer level of candidate interest, and the results of this question were worse for Trump. I asked these seats what candidates they are considering supporting at this point. I allowed them to name as many candidates as they wanted, and most named more than one. (The percentages in the chart below add up to more than 100 percent.)

Of all the candidates named, DeSantis is the one receiving the most widespread consideration – cited by 73 percent of the county seats. Trump was a distant second, cited by 43 percent. In fact, Trump was mentioned only slightly more than Haley, who was named by 36 percent, and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, who is at 28 percent.

Again, this question does not indicate any strong level of commitment among the candidates. But it does show who local party leaders are thinking at this early stage, and DeSantis easily captured the broadest swath of respondents.

The third approach I took to asking about candidate interest was perhaps the most revealing: I asked which candidate the county party chairs really didn’t want to see as the 2024 Republican presidential nominee.

The candidate who was outright rejected by the most county seats was former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie; 55 percent of the seats do not like him. He was followed by Donald Trump Jr. (51 percent), former Vice President Mike Pence (43 percent), and then, rather spectacularly, Trump himself, named by 39 percent of the seats. That means four out of 10 county seats don’t want Trump to be the party’s next nominee. By contrast, only nine percent of the county’s seats cleared DeSantis, the best showing of any challenger.

The level of apathy towards Trump is quite striking. In some ways, it looks similar to the GOP presidential contest of 2015-16, with plenty of opposition to Trump but still a path to his nomination. Trump has a low polling ceiling at which support is reached, but a high floor with a core group of unwavering supporters. In a tight race, the opposition split, allowing Trump to win with a majority of the vote. He may be counting on that scenario again, and the survey results don’t rule that out. However, the survey shows a difference between now and 2016, in that back then, opposition to Trump was spread across many different candidates. Now, it looks more concentrated behind DeSantis.

The numbers show DeSantis is in a strong position at the start of the race and before he formally launches his all-but-certain presidential bid. In the fight to be the Trump alternative, at least on this measure, he is unquestionably the frontrunner. (For Christie, things look bleak.)

However, the campaign has only just begun. I will be contacting these key party leaders throughout 2023 and early 2024 to see how their minds are changing and where the race is really headed.

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