Trump returned to Iowa aiming for a more disciplined campaign

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DAVENPORT, Iowa (AP) — To outsiders, they look like simple stacks of paper. But for Donald Trump’s first presidential campaign, they represent a missed opportunity.

A month before Iowa’s 2016 presidential caucus, mountains of so-called pledge cards sit in the corner of Trump’s suburban Des Moines state headquarters. They contain the names and contact information of about 10,000 Iowans who attended Trump campaign events and responded by returning cards suggesting they were open to supporting the reality television star seeking now at the White House.

In what is considered political malpractice by Iowa standards, those who returned the cards received no follow-up contact from the campaign.

“None of that data was used. None of it was entered,” said Alex Latcham, the former political director for the Iowa Republican Party and now Trump’s early voting state director. “And those people weren’t urged or moved in caucus.”

Chuck Laudner, who was Trump’s Iowa state director in 2016, did not respond to requests for comment. But by ignoring the cards, Trump’s team essentially left a pile of uncashed checks in the open, leaving him vulnerable to better-organized rivals. GOP. He was beaten in Iowa by Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, who will fight Trump state by state for three months.

As Trump returns to Iowa on Monday, he and his team are aiming for a more disciplined approach. They’re specifically focused on building the data and digital engagement he’ll need to persuade Iowans to brave the cold and snow early next year to participate in the caucuses.

Although his swing in the eastern city of Davenport marked his first trip to Iowa since launching his third bid for the presidency, he has held about three dozen events in the state since entering political life. These include several rallies that have drawn thousands since he left office in 2021.

His team uses information from those events to compile a comprehensive list of supporters who will be participating. The list now includes data from the 2016 campaign sitting gathering dust.

“One of the advantages we have is that we have a lot of data,” said senior Trump consultant Chris LaCivita. “From every donor to the rally attendee, we have all that information, which is important in a state like Iowa. It’s ground-game stuff. It’s about finding and identifying favorable voters and making sure that the campaign is coming out of them.”

In the early part of the 2024 campaign, Trump remains in a dominant position. But he faces notable challenges, including growing interest in the Florida Gov.’s expected candidacy. Ron DeSantis, who made his Iowa debut last week.

Early polls show Trump remains widely popular among Iowa Republicans, though views of the former president have slipped somewhat since he left the White House. Today, 80% say they have a favorable rating of Trump, down slightly from 91% in September 2021, according to a Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll released Friday.

The poll found that DeSantis also gets a rosy review from Iowa Republicans, with 74% saying they have a favorable rating. Interestingly, DeSantis has high name recognition in a state more than 1,000 miles away from his own; Only 20% say they aren’t sure how to rate him.

Meanwhile, the legal investigation surrounding Trump is also intensifying with potential indictments in the coming weeks that would make him the first former president in US history to face criminal charges. He was invited to testify this week before a New York grand jury investigating hush money payments to him during the 2016 campaign, a move that often signals a decision on indictments is imminent.

Elsewhere, the district attorney in Atlanta said decisions were “imminent” in a two-year investigation into possible illegal interference in the 2020 election by Trump and his allies. A Justice Department special counsel is also investigating efforts by Trump and his allies to undo the election as well as the handling of classified documents at his Florida estate.

Given the dynamic, the stakes are particularly high for Trump in Iowa. As a former president who prides himself on his status at the top of the GOP, he cannot afford even a small defeat in the contest that begins the nomination process.

And even the most sophisticated data and digital operations may not be enough to satisfy some Iowans, who are used to intimate conversations with White House seekers. Iowa GOP activists say Trump would do well to hold smaller events, with influential local Republican leaders.

Trump will deliver on Monday what is billed as a speech on education policy, but he is expected to touch more broadly on his achievements as president and his agenda for another term, including trade and agriculture policies, according to to a person familiar with his plans who spoke on condition of anonymity to review his remarks.

Trump will also take questions from local reporters and is expected to make an unannounced stop at a local establishment, as he has done on other recent trips.

Before the event, the campaign rolled out a list of endorsements from eastern Iowa elected officials, including state representatives and state senators.

When he began his campaign in Iowa eight years ago, Trump wasn’t sure what a caucus was. The unique contests — more than 1,000 simultaneous, local political meetings sponsored by the state Republican Party and run by volunteers — are not state-sanctioned primary elections and require intense organization to gain supporters in place in each location.

In 2016, Trump hired Laudner, the former executive director of the Iowa Republican Party who helped former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum squeaked out a win in the 2012 Republican caucuses. But Trump’s national team is led by a small group of aides with less experience than the talent that has drawn prospects expected early in the campaign to be strong contenders, such as former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker.

While Trump’s celebrity draws crowds of sometimes thousands to his rallies across the state, there is almost no follow-through among interested supporters. Many of Trump’s supporters are first-time caucus prospects unfamiliar with the process. Some missed their chance to weigh in by mistakenly going to their usual voting polling place, instead of the party’s designated caucus area.

Assuming that audiences equal votes is a costly lesson. If Trump gets fewer than four votes in each precinct, he could beat Cruz.

This year, the Trump campaign named Marshall Moreau as its Iowa director. He managed last year’s successful state attorney general campaign for Brenna Bird. He defeated Democrat Tom Miller, who was first elected in 1978.

More Iowa staff announcements are expected soon, aides said.

The goal of a sharper approach in Iowa reflects broader changes in how Trump has run his latest campaign. While his 2016 bid was a largely upstart bid, with national headquarters in unfinished commercial space at Trump Tower in New York, his second campaign, as a president seeking re-election, a gigantic behemoth that ran out of a shiny office tower in Virginia.

Both have been divided by rivalries as Trump rotates top staff.

This time, Trump chose a middle-of-the-road approach and eschewed the traditional hierarchy. Instead of a campaign manager, he entrusted Florida operative Susie Wiles, a longtime adviser, to lead his Florida-based operation, joined by LaCivita and former White House political director Brian Jack.

The campaign is quickly adding staff and quickly outgrowing its office space.

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Associated Press writers Jill Colvin in New York and Hannah Fingerhut in Washington contributed to this report.

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