Donald Trump: Why an indictment would have major political and national implications

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CNN —

America’s political and legal institutions are gearing up for their next major test posed by former President Donald Trump.

Trump’s prediction Saturday that he could be arrested this week — and his attempt to ignite a preemptive backlash — made more real what had been the theoretical hope of a former president and 2024 candidate charged with criminal And it signaled that America is headed for a more divisive political test that will test his influence in the GOP.

The property developer, ex-reality TV star and former commander in chief has faced multiple investigations after seeking to recall the 2020 election and his handling of classified documents after leaving office. But his most immediate exposure may be in a lawsuit over an alleged hush payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels.

Over the weekend, Trump had not received any official notification that he would be charged by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, a Democrat. But the grand jury process appears to be in its final stages and Trump’s legal team is preparing for the possibility of an indictment, sources told CNN.

The case revolves around whether Trump illegally covered up a $130,000 payment his former lawyer, Michael Cohen, made to Daniels to keep quiet about an alleged past relationship before the 2016 election. The episode may represent a campaign finance law violation. Trump has said he did nothing wrong and has denied having an affair with Daniels.

But the former president has launched a characteristic effort to discredit attempts to call him to account, trying to intimidate prosecutors, mobilize his grassroots supporters and force senior GOP officials to rally to his side. Every American has a constitutional right to political expression, but the former president’s call this weekend for his loyalists — “Protest, take our country back” — has taken on a sinister tone since he showed on January 6, 2021, that he is willing to incite violence to advance his interests.

Trump’s lawyer, Alina Habba, told CNN’s Paula Reid Sunday that there would be serious consequences if Trump were to be indicted for just one misdemeanor — a possible outcome of the Manhattan investigation. “It’s going to cause trouble, Paula. I mean, it’s a very scary time in our country,” Habba said. But he also said that “nobody wants to get hurt” and that Trump supporters should be “peaceful.”

An indictment would once again test the reality of the Republican Party in the age of Trump — whose grip on the GOP’s staunchest supporters is so strong that most of its lawmakers and officials feel obligated to silence him in order to preserve their political careers.

Trump’s efforts to politicize the case and distract from the allegations against him have already worked as his top allies in the Republican House leadership attacked Bragg.

Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Sunday called it “the weakest case out there.” The California Republican, who has ordered GOP-led committees to investigate whether the Manhattan DA used federal funds to investigate hush money, said at a news conference that he had spoken to Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan – who investigates the government’s “weaponizing” against political opponents – about looking into that question.

But the spokesperson also said people shouldn’t protest what may or may not happen and insisted Trump doesn’t want that either. “If this happens we want calm out there … no violence or harm to anyone,” McCarthy said.

Further underscoring Trump’s firm hold on the GOP base, his social media post prompted some of his Republican critics to rally to his side. Former Vice President Mike Pence, who is mulling a campaign to challenge Trump for the 2024 nomination, told ABC News, “It feels like a political persecution here. And I, for my part, feel it’s just not what Americans want to see.”

New Hampshire Republican Gov. Chris Sununu, who says it’s time for Republicans to move on from Trump, told Jake Tapper on CNN’s “State of the Union” that the Bragg investigation “generates a lot of sympathy for the former president.” He added: “I had coffee this morning with some people, and none of them were big Trump supporters, but they all said they felt he was under attack.”

The possibility that the former president will soon be indicted has huge implications.

— An indictment of a former president would be unprecedented in US history and mark another dubious distinction for the twice-impeached Trump, who has sought to disrupt the historic tradition of peaceful transitions of power and lied about his defeat in the 2020 elections. There is no tradition of former US leaders being pursued by successive administrations. So, even if the charges against Trump are legally sound, prosecutors in New York, as well as in Georgia and the Justice Department, face a dangerous and uncertain moment.

— The situation is more serious because Trump is already an active candidate for the 2024 White House race and his campaign is rooted in a narrative of perversion, especially regarding investigations into his conduct after the last election. He also promises a presidency of “revenge” against his opponents if he wins the Oval Office again.

— If he is indicted, Trump will still enjoy constitutional protections and the presumption of innocence before any trial. At a fragile national moment, other political figures and the media will also face pressure not to respond to his efforts to calm the situation. Trump is already seeking to portray possible prosecutions against him by the Justice Department as politically motivated weapons of justice, in a way that poses a new challenge to President Joe Biden, his past and likely general election opponent in future.

— An indictment has the potential to upend the 2024 Republican presidential primary, with Trump hiring opponents to support his claims of innocence and portraying any failure to do so as siding with what he sees as as a partisan investigation for political gain. Neither the Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a potential Republican candidate, or former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who is in the race, has not yet commented on a situation that presents them with a difficult problem. But both will have a vested interest in preventing the 2024 primary campaign from revolving exclusively around Trump portraying himself as a political martyr.

— The first Republican nominating contests are nearly a year away, so it’s impossible to judge how GOP primary voters and a national electorate might react to any accusations of the former president. Sununu, who is also considering a presidential run, accused Democrats of building sympathy for Trump with investigations like Bragg in a way that could “significantly change the paradigm as we go into the ’24 election. ” But there’s already a palpable sense among some voters that it’s time to move on from the drama, chaos and legal thickets that Trump’s behavior continues to throw up. The former president’s attempt to lift his election-rejecting supporters into power cost Republicans big in swing states in last year’s midterms. An indictment will add to the debate over whether Trump’s persona and political appeal have been so damaged that he cannot win a general election.

— A charge in the Daniels case isn’t Trump’s only legal problem — or maybe his most serious. The Justice Department is investigating his role in the January 6 attack on the US Capitol and Trump’s efforts to subvert the 2020 election are still expanding. A separate special grand jury investigated Trump’s insistence on local officials to overturn Biden’s 2020 victory in Georgia. Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis said at the end of January that decisions on the inquiry were “imminent.” While an indictment in New York could be seen as politically energizing for Trump’s campaign, it’s hard to see how a crush of cases or trials in multiple cases would allow him to fully focus on a credible presidential bid.

— Any indictment against Trump will be rooted in the principle that no one, not even a former president, is above the law. But given the unusual nature and complexity of the case and the opinion of some legal experts that a conviction could be challenged, there will also be questions about whether the former president’s notoriety will factor into any decision to indict him. His lawyers may argue that someone less popular or politically active would have been treated differently.

— There’s also the issue of whether the political division and trauma of putting Trump on trial would be in the broader national interest — at least in a relatively limited case that seems to have fewer long-term constitutional implications than those connected to the investigations in January 6. History may not look well on any failed prosecution.

The fact that the Daniels case comes from an election that is now more than six years old, even as the country faces another White House campaign, may also raise questions for the public, especially if there is no certainty about the case for anyone outside of the small. investigation bubble. Arizona Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly told CNN’s Jake Tapper on Sunday’s “State of the Union” that “no one in our country is or should be above the law.” But he also said: “I hope that, if they file charges, that they have a strong case, because this is … unprecedented. And there are certainly risks involved in this.

Kelly’s comments underscored how Trump, nearly eight years after bursting onto the scene with an upstart presidential campaign, is once again upending convention about the role of presidents and former presidents in national life. He was once again able to jump to the center, in the most controversial ways, of national thought and political debate.

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