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Donald Trump was the frontrunner to become the Republican Party’s nominee for the 2024 presidential race before news of his pending arrest became public — and that fact doesn’t change even though he’s now officially a criminal defendant.
The earliest date for any trial in this case is January 2024, which coincides with the start of the Republican primary campaign season, before people in Iowa and New Hampshire go to the polls.
There is a serious and stunning possibility that Trump could be sitting in the court dock while voters choose which candidate they want to run for the White House.
But polling suggests it’s unlikely to be a factor in which they swing.
2:07 What charges does Trump face?
Since last week, when it was announced he would face charges, his 8% lead over his closest Republican rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, has ballooned to 26%, according to a YouGov survey.
Even allowing for the fact that this may be a temporary boost because he is so prominent in the news, the possibility of DeSantis overtaking Trump, while not impossible, is unlikely.
“DeSantis remains the primary contender but he’s in a very difficult position,” Ryan Williams, a Republican Party strategist, told me.
“He really can’t talk about himself right now or his agenda in Florida or how he’s going to be a candidate because he has to talk about Donald Trump at this moment — everybody does.
“He also has to side with him, which is strange. Usually, when you’re fighting someone, you criticize them when they find themselves in the middle of a scandal like Donald Trump.”
That is not the case here.
DeSantis and all other potential Republican candidates must rally behind Trump or risk the wrath of the party’s base that dominates the primaries and caucuses during the nomination process.
Read more: This is Trump as we’ve never seen him before A glossary of Trump case terms The ‘small town girl’ involved in the Trump hush money case
Photo: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis
‘It’s just a ploy’
A trip to the Rafiki Tiki Bar in Riviera Beach, Florida, shows that Trump loyalists are unlikely to be swayed by his legal troubles.
Photo: Bryan Berfio
“It just seems like a ploy by the Democratic Party trying to make sure he doesn’t run in the next upcoming election,” Bryan Berfio said.
“If he runs against Biden next time, I’ll definitely vote for him.”
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But sitting just a few tables away was a group of friends from Tennessee who had different political views than Bryan.
“I think it’s a shame that a former president is in court but at least it shows that no one is above the law,” said Amanda Edens.
Photo: Amanda Edens
He added: “I was in high school when George W Bush was elected and I remember thinking, ‘oh, this is terrible, we don’t want a conservative in office’.
“I now long for the days of a Bush Jr, Bush Sr, Reagan-esque nation.”
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