Trump’s Allegation May Be Making Him More Popular With Republicans

[ad_1]

PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly poll compilation.

Former President Donald Trump has a chance for a quiet and impromptu arraignment after a Manhattan Grand Jury sent an indictment on 34 counts to state court. His Secret Service officers preferred that, too, for security reasons, but Trump got a hard pass, Rolling Stone reports. He wants a perp walk; he wants daylight, a law enforcement official involved in security planning told the magazine. More specifically, Trump wants a public spectacle to send a message to his supporters.

And that’s what he got. Outside the courthouse on Tuesday, groups of supporters and protesters gathered, surrounded by possibly more reporters ready to cover the history-making event. Although US Senators and representatives have been tried and even convicted of crimes, and so have leaders in other democracies, a former President of the United States has never experienced this type of situation.

Between the spectacle and monumental nature of the news, it’s a lot to take in. Most Americans agree that Trump’s alleged actions are illegal, but there are, unsurprisingly, partisan differences when it comes to what to do about it.

It’s one of the many investigations and scandals that have followed Trump since the start of his presidency, from two impeachments to an ongoing investigation in Georgia over his meddling in the 2020 election that could result in its own lawsuits. But Americans seem familiar with the underlying facts of this particular case: In a Morning Consult survey from March 31, 82 percent of registered voters said they had heard some or a lot about a Manhattan grand jury vote. to indict Trump on charges related to alleged payments made to porn star Stormy Daniels. The charges on Tuesday revealed that Trump falsified business documents to cover up payments in an attempt to influence his 2016 presidential campaign.

Most Americans agree that it is illegal. In an Economist/YouGov poll of 1,500 US adults from April 1-4, roughly covering the period between Trump’s impeachment and arraignment, a decisive 69 percent majority said that, overall, they did not will report spending campaign money on payments properly. silencing someone about an issue and affecting the outcome of an election is a crime. There was a split by party identification, however: 90 percent of those who voted for Biden in 2020 said it was a crime, while a smaller majority, 54 percent, of those who voted for Trump in 2020 said so too.

And the results became more partisan when the poll asked whether Trump, specifically, was guilty of falsifying business records to hide hush money payments to a porn star. Eighty-two percent of Biden voters told the Economist/YouGov they think Trump falsified business records to cover up hush money payments, while 54 percent of Trump voters said he didn’t made. Eighty-three percent of Biden voters thought it was a legitimate investigation, while 85 percent of Trump voters thought it was a witch hunt. Meanwhile, nearly 50 percent agreed with the accusation in the same poll, with 85 percent of Biden voters agreeing and 78 percent of Trump supporters disapproving. Americans seem to believe in the abstract that paying hush money to cover up an affair and then covering up the payment itself is probably bad, but may disagree about whether Trump actually did it and whether he should go to jail for it.

All of this makes it seem unlikely that this week’s events will cost Trump any supporters. Georgia Rep. compared Marjorie Taylor Greene Trump on Nelson Mandela and Jesus before his arraignment, framing the accusation in a narrative of political persecution. That attitude may help explain why Trumps Republican support actually grew following the indictment. In a Yahoo! News/YouGov poll of US adults conducted when news of the impeachment broke late last week, 57 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaners said they would support Trump in a hypothetical head-to-head in 2024 Republican primary against his closest future challenger, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who received only 31 percent. That represents an increase in support for the former president, who just two weeks ago led DeSantis 47 percent to 39 percent in another survey conducted by the same pollster. In a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on April 3, 48 percent of Republicans said they would support Trump for president despite the impeachment, and support for DeSantis was down 11 points from the same survey in mid March

Greenes’ statements indicate that he thinks these weeks’ events could make Trump more popular, and polling from the weeks leading up to the impeachment shows that may be true among his base. News of the impending indictment has been circulating for weeks, and during that time Trump’s lead over DeSantis has typically increased. All of this suggests that Trump’s legal troubles may endear him to his supporters, and explains why he wants so many people outside the courthouse; he was literally trying to rally support.

I can stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot someone and I won’t lose voters, Trump famously said, at a rally in January 2016. He may be right that his core base of supporters won’t let him down. But most Americans in general seem to approve of the indictment and many Republicans seem to disapprove of his actions even if they don’t want him to face charges. And that could translate into lost votes in the end: A YouGov poll released on April 5 found that a majority, 49 percent, thought Trump should not be allowed to serve if convicted.

Other poll bites After a shooting in Nashville last week left six people dead, including three children, support for stricter gun control laws emerged in a Morning Consult survey of nearly 2,000 registered voters. About two-thirds said they supported stricter gun control laws, including 47 percent of Republicans, a ten-point increase from the last time Morning Consult surveyed the issue in January. Overall support was nearly as high as the 68 percent who told Morning Consult they supported stricter gun control measures in the wake of the school shooting in Uvalde, Texas last year. A majority of Americans, 83 percent, rate the US economy as fair or only poor, according to a March 1-23 Gallup survey, and only 23 percent think conditions are improving. An IBD/TIPP poll found that optimism about the economy has increased slightly compared to surveys over the past 16 months, but a 24.8 percentage point gap between investors and non-investors, with investors having more optimism, the largest in the survey. recorded over 20 years. In other economic news, a Big Village Insights survey of 1,016 adults found that most Americans, 51 percent, have lost confidence in the US Banking System, over the past three months. But even after two banks, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, failed in March, 88 percent remained confident in their personal bank. Won’t March come out like a sheep? The first week of April brought severe weather across the U.S. An outbreak of tornadoes last weekend left at least 32 dead from Arkansas to Delaware, a second group of storms that began Tuesday night and lasted until Wednesday morning leaving at least five dead in Missouri. On April 3, Gallup released a survey showing that 45 percent of US adults in the South have been affected by bad weather in the past two years. Overall, about a third of Americans have been affected by extreme weather in the past two years. Biden’s approval

According to the FiveThirtyEights presidential approval tracker, 42.7 percent of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing as president, while 52.8 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -10.1 points). At this time last week, 42.6 percent approved and 53.3 percent disapproved (a net approval rating of -10.6 points). A month ago, Biden had an approval rating of 43.7 percent and a disapproval rating of 51.4 percent, for a net approval rating of -7.7 points.

CORRECTION (April 7, 11:35 am): A previous version of this story incorrectly stated the campaign year to which Trump’s indictment relates. The charges relate to his 2016 campaign for president, not 2017, which is not a presidential election year.

[ad_2]