Trump and the abortion issue are not going away

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CNN —

Donald Trump is now in a stronger position to win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination than he has been in months as his party rallies around him following his indictment by a New York grand jury on fraud charges in business.

But the actual results on the ground continue to suggest that the former president may not be good for the Republican brand among the general electorate.

On the day of Trumps arraignment in Manhattan on Tuesday, Democrat-backed Janet Protasiewicz celebrated a victory in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election as liberals took control of the high court in the ultimate swing state.

That result is just part of a larger story in which Democrats and Democratic-backed candidates across the country are doing better in elections this year than Joe Biden is in their states or districts in 2020. And it’s potentially bodes well for the Democrats’ 2024 fortunes.

The result in Wisconsin sums up the Republican problem. Biden won the state by less than a point in 2020, after Trump carried it by a similar margin four years ago. The Badger State is one of the few that has voted for the winner of the last four presidential elections, and it is one of the few that has a US senator from each party.

Protasiewicz’s 11-point winning margin over his Republican opponent was a relative blowout compared to Bidens 2020 performance in Wisconsin.

We can also see Democratic overperformance in Wisconsin in another election on Tuesday, this one a state Senate election in the Milwaukee area. While not talking about anywhere near a state Supreme Court race, Republicans need to hold onto the open seat to win a supermajority in the state Senate.

The Republican candidate did win, but only by 2 points. It marked a 3-point overperformance for the Democratic nominee while Biden lost the district by 5 points in 2020.

Wisconsin’s results match up well with what we’ve seen so far in 2023 special elections across the country.

In the only federal special election so far this year, Democrat Jennifer McCllean surpassed Bidens 2020 margin in Virginias 4th Congressional District by 13 points.

In an average of nearly 20 special state legislative elections, Democrats have done about 4 points better than Biden’s margin, on average.

The president, of course, won the 2020 election, so the fact that the political environment looks better for Democrats now than it did then is a good sign for his party.

It also marks a stark contrast to what we saw in 2019 when Democrats in special elections had nearly the same margins as Hillary Clintons 2016. That came after Democrats outperformed Clinton in the 2018 midterms. This is a sign that the 2020 elections may be around the corner.

What makes the Democrats stand out in this year’s shows is that they happen to have Biden’s approval rating stuck in the low 40s. Normally, you wouldn’t expect an unpopular party of presidents to do well in off-year elections.

This suggests that the factors currently at play are similar to those in the latter half of 2022. Following the US Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in the middle of the year, Democrats began to exceed Bidens 2020 margins in districts that held special elections.

And Democrats had a historic night in the November midterms. They’re holding their own, despite Biden’s approval rating being south of 50%.

Midterm exit polls revealed that many voters who did not like Biden or Trump voted Democratic. Almost every primary race in states likely to decide the presidency in 2024 has gone Democratic. Put another way, Biden is not the deciding factor you might expect him to be among swing voters. Trump also counted on their vote, even though he wasn’t president.

Neither abortion nor Trump seem likely to go away as an issue in 2023.

Abortion is at the forefront of the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, with liberals hoping a Protasiewicz win will give them the majority to legalize the procedure statewide.

And Trump remains the clear favorite for the GOP nomination for president, despite his impeachment and continued unpopularity with the general electorate.

If those things don’t change in 2024, Republicans could be in big trouble.

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