Trump or DeSantis? Democrats aren’t sure who they want Biden to face

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WASHINGTON Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis? Democrats are torn over which of the two Republican front-runners they would rather face in the 2024 presidential election, according to conversations with a dozen Democratic strategists.

The conventional wisdom among many in the party is that President Joe Biden would have a better chance in a rematch against Trump. The former president lost in 2020, he mobilized the Democratic base and has a brand that is toxic to many swing voters. Plus, the thinking goes, DeSantis’ relative youth presents a starker contrast for Biden, and the Florida governor’s relative obscurity on the national stage means Democrats aren’t just -as long as you can pull off a winning playbook against him.

I’d rather see Biden face Trump because we know how to beat him,” said Celinda Lake, a veteran pollster who advised Bill Clinton in 1992 and has since counted a long list of prominent Democrats as clients.” We beat him once, we can beat him again. And I think he’s definitely further alienating the irrelevant female vote.”

But another group of Democrats see DeSantis as the easier candidate to beat. Trump has strengths that DeSantis doesn’t have, they say: Trump is more charismatic, better at retail politics and has a unique ability to galvanize GOP voters and get them to the polls that the Florida governor has yet to prove. which he can do on the big stage.

I think DeSantis comes off as very unlikable. Trump, at least, is good at retail politics; Not DeSantis. Much of his work comes as performative theater, said Michael Starr Hopkins, a Democratic strategist who advised Charlie Crist to lose the 2022 campaign for Florida governor to DeSantis.

Hopkins predicted that DeSantis will not be as effective nationally as he was in the Republican-friendly Sunshine State.

Trump has 30% of the base no matter what. And DeSantis doesn’t have a built-in base like Trump does, Hopkins said. He doesn’t have the strength of Trumps base. And so there’s a lot of the MAGA coalition that I don’t think will go with DeSantis simply because they see him as an anti-Trump rather than being a Trump acolyte.

The debate came as Democrats rallied around Biden, who has made it clear he intends to run for re-election. Not facing a serious primary challenger to his renomination, party elites have little to do in the presidential arena but plan how to run against their opponent next fall and ponder which of the two Republican front-runners is more likely to lose in a general election.

‘I believe that Gov. is weaker. DeSantis’

DeSantis has left some Democrats scratching their heads over the past month as he has taken one punch after another from Trump without responding. He also appears to be slipping further behind Trump in GOP primary polls ahead of an expected announcement.

Based on what I’ve seen in recent weeks, as he gets closer to running, I believe Gov. is weaker. DeSantis, said Jim Manley, a former Senate Democratic leadership aide turned lobbyist. Better for Democrats to run against him than against Trump.

Manley said DeSantis was sticking to scripted sound bites, adding: I view him as a very weak candidate who has managed to bully his way through the state of Florida, but I don’t believe he’s ready for the big leagues .

Some Democrats say it’s too early to tell who is stronger.

No one should pretend to know the answer to that question at this point, said Dan Pfeiffer, a former White House adviser and campaign aide to President Barack Obama.

Trump is a hugely flawed nominee who could run under multiple accusations and perhaps even be convicted. Ron DeSantis hasn’t exactly demonstrated the dexterity or charisma necessary to navigate a national campaign, he said. I think we should all be humbled when the last two presidential elections were decided by a turnout almost larger than attending a Big Ten college football game.

‘Road map to defeat Trump’

In a country so divided, Biden’s re-election is no sure thing against either of his two likely Republican opponents.

In 2016, Trump won by about 75,000 votes; in 2020, he over-performed polls predicting a blowout and lost the Electoral College by a similar margin. His coalition includes many disaffected voters who reliably turn out when Trump is on the ballot but stay home when he’s not. That fueled the blue wave of 2018, the GOP’s historic underperformance in the 2022 midterms and other special elections where Trump’s flawed protections and support for abortion rights after the fall of Roe v. Wade has sunk the Republicans.

Few doubt that Trump will mobilize his voters again, as he did in 2016 and 2020, if he is the nominee. But will those same MAGA voters turn to DeSantis, especially after an ugly primary with Trump? Will Trump support DeSantis in the general election if he loses the primary, or seek to set the party on fire? And will DeSantis stand a better chance among independents who might sour on Trump over the Jan. 6 attack and the criminal charges he now faces?

Some Democrats say Trump is weaker now than in 2020.

The road map to defeat Trump has been deployed and successfully deployed, said Scott Mulhauser, a former Biden aide who said he believes Trump is more beatable than DeSantis. The body blows keep coming to Trump alienating independents at every turn, and these are the swing voters needed to overcome his margins one last time.

Mulhauser said Democrats have clear ways to run against any abortion rights candidate. But on Social Security and Medicare, he said, Democrats certainly have a stronger case against DeSantis, who has called for privatizing those programs and raising the retirement age in the past.

‘started a revolution’

Election politics aside, Democrats also disagree on who would be a worse president.

Hopkins said he believes DeSantis is a more dangerous candidate to be honest, citing a certain intellectual revenge on DeSantis that I don’t think Trump has.

Check out his battle with Disney now. Whereas Trump is really undisciplined and emotional, DeSantis comes off as vindictive and mean, he said. And I think that’s a dangerous combination.

Mulhauser disagreed, citing Trump’s attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 election based on fabricated claims of voter fraud.

Although Mulhauser has made it clear that he is not a fan of any Republican, he believes it would be worse for the country if Trump returns to power than if DeSantis becomes president.

Donald Trump, while president, instigated a revolution that attempted to overturn the will of the people, the rule of law and our democracy. That cannot be overlooked or undone, he said. I’m not sure DeSantis is better off with a host of policy or culture-war dog whistles, but you hope he recognizes the country needs to stand up.

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