Why Ron DeSantis keeps losing Florida endorsements to Trump

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Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis traveled to Washington, DC this week in a bid to rally congressional support. That trip, however, has been overshadowed by another development: former President Donald Trump is holding a parade of new endorsements, including several lawmakers from DeSantiss’ home state.

As of Wednesday, Trump has locked up seven endorsements by 20 Florida House Republicans, compared to the one DeSantis got. Announced by Rep. John Rutherford, Brian Mast, and Greg Steube announced this week that they are supporting Trump in the presidential race, while Rep. Laurel Lee that she will support DeSantis.

In another particularly poignant development, Texas Rep. Lance Gooden voiced his support for the former president immediately after a meeting with DeSantis, stating, there is no doubt in my mind that Trump is the only leader who can save America from leftist aggression.

All told, Trump boasts 45 House Republican endorsements while the Florida governor, who has yet to formally announce his campaign, has three.

Of course, it’s early in the primary process and many lawmakers have refused to pick sides until DeSantis makes his run official. In addition, the effects of endorsements on voters’ decisions tend to be marginal, according to political scientists. Still, this week’s announcements underscore the firm strength of Trumps position among Republicans as the primary heats up. DeSantis is widely viewed as Trump’s chief competitor in a GOP primary, but recent endorsements indicate how receptive some members still are to the former president’s candidacy despite the pitfalls it could bring.

Trump is just building a lead at this point. It leads in the polls, it leads in endorsements, its threats lead in donations, Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida, told Vox.

Trump’s latest endorsements were also announced as there have been questions about DeSantiss’ campaign launch over the past few weeks. DeSantis, who emerged from the 2022 midterms as a GOP hero capable of leading his party to a landslide electoral victory, has seen his status decline recently. As McDonald noted, governors have seen poll numbers drop. But he also suffered a major defeat in a disruptive battle with Disney, and faces doubt from donors about whether he’s really ready to take on Trump. Fox News, which has promoted him heavily for some time, has increasingly turned its attention to Trump.

So far, DeSantis has tried to deflect any narratives that he’s struggling under the spotlight by highlighting the legislation he’s shepherded as governor along with tough bills attacking LGBTQ rights and a six- week ban on abortion. He expects to officially announce his run in May or June.

These endorsements are sending a message but it’s still early

Trump’s loss against President Joe Biden in 2020, losses suffered by several Trump-aligned candidates in recent midterms, and ongoing scrutiny of his role in the January 6 insurrection have fueled concerns among some Republican that he can’t do the job of 2024. The White House is running.

That uncertainty has prompted some GOP members to see DeSantis as a better choice at least for a time.

I really think he should run and I really think he should be the GOP nominee, Patrick Hynes, a GOP strategist in New Hampshire, told my colleague Nicole Narea about DeSantis in November. By every measure, he is the best Republican candidate this season.

But DeSantiss rough few weeks have dealt a blow to his expected candidacy. Trump’s problems with his recent impeachment have not stopped some Republican lawmakers from continuing to endorse him. That sends a signal about how they see Trump’s potential viability, at least in the GOP nominating process.

Endorsements tend to follow who people believe will win, McDonald said. These are the people who have a big stake in the outcome and they are betting that Trump will be the nominee.

Political scientists note that the electoral impact of endorsements may be small, but they offer important cues to voters. In this case, they provide a key indicator of who these lawmakers see as a chief contender in the GOP primary. According to analysis from FiveThirtyEight, the candidates with the most endorsements in presidential primaries without an incumbent usually end up getting the nomination. That may be partly thanks to those clues.

Lawmakers’ loyalty to Trump may have as much to do with their own primaries as it does with defeating Biden. Many Republican voters remain committed to Trump, and turning away from him could have its own electoral consequences for members of the House. Trump’s hands-on approach and personal calls to various House members also reportedly played a role in winning over lawmakers, according to CNN. DeSantis, meanwhile, appears to be taking a less direct approach and has staff reaching out to lawmakers.

It’s still early in the presidential campaign and there’s plenty of time for DeSantis to pick up more endorsements and support, just as Trump himself did in 2016 after failing to garner significant support early on. However, unlike in 2016, when Trump framed himself as an outsider taking on the GOP establishment on behalf of everyday Americans, DeSantis is facing a candidate who doesn’t just represent the establishment. , but has a firm grip on a wide swath of the Republican electorate.

McDonald said this dynamic is one of the main challenges DeSantis has: He’s trying to recruit voters to Trump’s base, but they’re already committed to the former president. He argues that the governor should more clearly signal that he is a change candidate who will bring something different to the table and less baggage than Trump.

If you’re a Republican voter looking at the message from DeSantis, you say, why should I have DeSantis instead of Trump, if I love Trump, he said. His strategy is to try to out MAGA the king of MAGA and that’s not going to happen.

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