Biden vs. Trump 2024 will be the rematch no one wants

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WASHINGTON President Joe Biden’s campaign launch Tuesday in 2024 pushed America one step closer to Biden-Trump II, with voters not wanting a rematch.

Biden has no serious challengers for the Democratic nomination, and former President Donald Trump is the clear front-runner for a third straight Republican nod.

Ironically, re-engagement seems more likely at a time when most Americans believe the country the two men led back-to-back is on the wrong track. More clearly, in an NBC News survey released on Sunday, 70 percent of respondents said Biden should not run, and 60 percent said Trump should not run.

To add to the sense of stagnation, most polls show the longtime rivals within a few points of each other, suggesting there has been no seismic shift in the country’s politics since Biden won the 2020 electoral college in a landslide. of statistically narrow victories in several key states.

Culturally, society is used to new forms of entertainment, said Faiz Shakir, who is managing Sen’s 2020 Democratic primary campaign. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. Running again, this generation of Americans understands, is not as exciting.

Trump, who has been impeached twice and is under indictment in New York, cast the choice in apocalyptic terms by telling voters he was the only candidate who could stop World War III. He also promised to boost the economy, appoint conservative judges to the court and establish 10 “liberty cities” on federal land.

Democrats are of two minds when it comes to Trump. On a purely political level, they see a useful foil as the dominant figure in three consecutive disappointing elections for national Republicans. But they also view Trump as an existential threat to the sanctity of the republic. In a statement on Monday timed to preempt Biden’s launch, Trump repeated false claims that he would be defeated in 2020, a lie that inspired the Jan. 6 insurrection at the US Capitol.

Pete Giangreco, a veteran consultant who advised Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., in her 2020 bid for the Democratic nomination, said Biden would be helped by what she described as the extremism of Trump and his allies in Congress.

“This is a Republican Party that has unglued itself from both traditional conservatism and reality,” he said.

But like some other Democrats, he worries about voters’ perception of an economy that Biden credits himself with saving from the problems of the pandemic.

“There are a lot of people who, despite the numbers, have a pretty negative view of the economy,” Giangreco said. “Even if the inflation number is halved between now and next year, it’s still hard to convince people of any good news.”

The rate of inflation and wage stagnation are two data points that Trump uses to argue that Biden has been an economic flop. In Trump’s version of the country’s recent history, he is a victim of the economic devastation caused by the pandemic and should be given credit for starting to fix it.

“President Trump has created the greatest economy our country has ever experienced twice in reality,” said Trump campaign senior adviser Jason Miller. “And he’s ready to do it again.”

It seems inevitable that if the two men square off again Trump still needs to win the GOP nomination for that to happen the rematch will be framed around Trump. Democrats say it will help them.

“It’s going to be very difficult to move voters in terms of their opinion of Donald Trump,” Rep. Brendan Boyle, D-Pa. “A clear majority of Americans have a negative view of former President Trump.”

That’s true, but Biden’s approval ratings are also below the waterline: an NBC survey showed that 38 percent of adults see him in a positive light, while Trump’s number is at 34 percent.

Both men are leaning heavily on their records to act as validators for what they will do in a second term, which accounts for their stark differences in politics, policy and personality.

“There is no greater contrast between two successive administrations in the entire history of America,” Trump said in his speech on Monday. “Our greatness, and their failure.”

But Giangreco said Trump is backing himself into a corner.

“Presidential elections are almost always about the future, and there is no way that Donald Trump is the future,” Giangreco said. “Oddly, Joe Bidens is the future and Donald Trump is the past.”

However, voters could be forgiven if they are starting to feel deja vu from both the candidates, their campaigns and their political allies.

Brendan Buck, a longtime GOP strategist, predicted that the sequel to the last election would draw a lot of intense interest, largely because of the challenger’s ability to focus media attention on himself.

In a normal world you might expect this to drag down enthusiasm, but Trump will take care of that, Buck said. If this is going to be our fight, it won’t be a boring election, and it won’t lack turnout.

Biden’s approval numbers are deceptively soft, Shakir said, because some progressives want to see him move more in their direction. Voters will show up to support him next year, Shakir added, because of the contrast between the candidates.

“You start with an advantage,” he said, citing abortion and “good, competent governance” among topics he believes favors Biden. But he and other Democratic strategists said they see a close race shaping up that Trump could win.

“It mainly needs to be prosecuted in the economy and raising questions and concerns about the economic direction of this country,” said Shakir.

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