Can Trump cure all of Biden’s ills? Some Dems aren’t so sure.

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But as the campaign continues, other Democrats caution that the past is no precedent. Senior officials have privately expressed dismay about the state of the president’s re-election operation. There has been internal debate among party luminaries about launching the campaign in April, with fears that the pieces are not yet in place and that the White House needs more time for the transition. Chief of staff Jeff Zients wanted Julie Chvez Rodrguez, the incoming campaign manager, to stay an extra month in her current role as director of the White Houses Office of Intergovernmental Affairs, but it was negotiated, an official confirmed of the White House.

Zients wanted to make sure Rodriguez’s portfolio was handed over before he left for the campaign, and he agreed with aides that next week would be the right time for the move, according to a White House official.

Currently, there is no headquarters and only a handful of full-time staff in place, not one of whom is the finance director. The president’s political team refuses to discuss its fundraising numbers publicly, fueling concern among donors that the numbers are poor and could continue to lag as the summer months approach.

And then there are the polls.

The ABC poll, while it’s an outlier, it’s also a warning, right? said Terrance Woodbury, CEO of HIT Strategies, a public opinion firm with a number of prominent clients in the progressive and labor ecosystem. They are a very confident White House. They are most confident in their record. He was a creature of the legislature and he believed that passing laws was good governance and he passed some very good laws. But that is not always good politics.

The worry for Woodbury and others isn’t that this White House hasn’t proven capable, it’s that they seem to have grown too self-confident. The assumption that Trump’s continued presence on the scene and his likely ascension to the Republican nomination will cure many current ills is a recipe for complacency. This is especially problematic amid an economy that Americans are still uncertain about, and because investigations into the president and his family have the potential to further complicate the election.

After 60 years in politics, he is surrounded by people who are insular by nature. And so it’s not a big surprise that the White House doesn’t feel receptive to messages other than the ones they want to believe, said Stephanie Murphy, a former moderate Democratic House member. It’s easy to blame the media but the important thing is to know how to listen to what the American people are telling you. I mean, not all polls are wrong.

Aides close to Biden have risen to the criticism and even critics themselves, arguing that their track record should give them some leeway.

If you’re the kind of coward who’d rather stone people who wrestle with the devil than the devil himself, and don’t have a similar track record of success, it’s reasonable to confuse strength with overconfidence, says one 2020 campaign alum. Reporters are not your therapists, kids.

Other Biden world officials insist they are taking nothing for granted. Although there is a growing belief that Trump is a shoo-in to be the Republican nominee for president, they do not believe he is a shoo-in to lose in a general. They say one element missing from the hand-wringing about the state of the campaign is the many jobs being done by a DNC that has been boosted during Bidens tenure.

The Biden-Harris reelection campaign builds on the work of a once-powerful DNC and state party operation, united after the best midterm performance by a sitting president since FDR, and on offense against an unpopular agenda of MAGA, said Biden campaign spokesperson Kevin Munoz. Joe Biden has always been underestimated by pundits and the Beltway media, and he’s proven the doubters wrong every time.

Those closest to Biden like their chances in a 2020 rematch with Trump. They believe that Trump is no longer viewed as an agent of change on the outside, but as a disruptive force that a large part of the country finds embarrassing. Trump spent Wednesday night mocking his legal troubles, defending the Jan. 6 riots that promised to pardon many of the rioters who voiced defense for his infamous Access Hollywood tape and mocking the a woman who found herself responsible for sexual abuse, only reinforced those beliefs. .

Fear is a good motivator and Trump should scare the majority of Americans, said Bradley Beychok, president and co-founder for the Biden-supportive Super PAC American Bridge 21st Century. When Americans are reminded of the danger Trump poses to our democracy, that fear translates into more enthusiasm for Biden and the Democrats including a deluge of donations.

Fears about complacency, strategy, and general political viability are nothing new for Democrats. It may be part of their DNA.

Democrats are history’s rags. Theres like, just full-throated fucking panic, said Jim Messina, the campaign manager for the Obama reelection campaign. This is [also] it’s fair to say that Team Biden has become the smallest political operation in the country.

Messina, who says the White House calls him periodically to check what he’s hearing and what advice he has, believes that what some Democrats might read as overconfidence is actually a very small group. only people trusted by the president who are calm and knowledgable. they will go through 100 hurricanes between now and November 2024.

But the current round of internal party agita is unique in how Democrats see the stakes. Party officials have grappled with the idea that Trump as the Republican nominee represents both political opportunities and greater threats. There is also the unshakable fear that Biden is both inherently flawed (due to his age) and irreplaceable at the top of the ticket.

Four years ago, these calculations and concerns did not exist. Biden rode an anti-Trump sentiment to the White House along with popular anxiety about the state of the economy and the fight against the pandemic.

White House aides believe that even voters who might be lukewarm about President Biden today will still vote against Trump. But some Democrats feel the dynamics are different now. David Simas, White House political director at the end of his presidency, said that the Democrats should not expect that the presence of the Trumps on the path and the airwaves makes the path of Bidens easier than in 2020.

In 2016 at this stage, 18 months before, [Trump] trailed Secretary Clinton by double digits. In the polls in 2020, with incumbent Joe Biden entering the race, Trump trailed by nine or 10 percent. In the polls today, in a Trump vs Biden matchup, what you see is either a tied race or a slight advantage. [for] Trump, Simas said at the Sedona Forum.

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