CNN Poll: Trump leads 2024 GOP primary field, but many voters open to supporting other candidates

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CNN —

Donald Trump has consolidated the support of slightly more than half of his party in the early stages of the race for the Republican nomination, a newly released CNN poll conducted by SSRS has found, highlighting the potential path of former presidents in the third nomination and the challenges to his rivals. will be faced in the coming months with establishing their own support bases.

The Republican field remains far from settled. In the days since the poll was conducted, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott is his candidacy, along with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is also set to announce his bid for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination Wednesday night in a conversation with Twitter owner Elon Musk.

Trump was the first choice of 53% of Republican and Republican-leaning primary voters, nearly doubling DeSantis’ 26%. But the survey also found that a broad swath of Republican-aligned voters were willing to consider either, as well as several other candidates. More than 8 in 10 either support or say they are open to considering Trump (84%) and DeSantis (85%), and smaller majorities say they support or would consider former UN ambassador Nikki Haley (61% ), Scott (60%) and former Vice President Mike Pence (54%). Haley and Pence are currently the first choices of 6%, according to the poll, with Scott at 2% with former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and five other candidates hold 1% support or less.

The survey also found that most of the possible electorates have already removed some names from the primary. Sixty percent say they would not support Christie for the nomination under any circumstances, and 55% say they would never support former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson or New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, respectively.

Trumps large advantage in first-choice support over DeSantis marked a change from CNNs March poll, which found the two men nearly neck-and-neck. That movement in Trumps favor mirrors the findings of other recent national polls on the race.

Trump now leads DeSantis by similar margins among both older and younger voters, a stark change from March, when his support was much weaker among those over 45 than among younger voters. aligned with the Republicans. The former presidents’ primary support now falls short of a majority among a relatively small bloc of Republican and Republican-leaning voters, those who say President Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory is legitimate (27% of them support him), White college graduates (38%), moderates or self-described liberals (45%), and GOP-leaning independents (43%). But voters in those groups have never united more strongly on any alternative, with DeSantis below the 30% mark in each group and other candidates still trailing.

DeSantis’ best showing was among self-identified very conservative voters, 34% of whom support him, compared to 23% of those who describe themselves as somewhat conservative.

Nearly half of Republican and Republican-leaning voters, 52%, think it’s very likely that Trump will win the party’s presidential nomination for a third cycle, with another 35% saying it’s somewhat likely , and only 13% say it is not very likely or not at all. probably at all. His supporters are more likely to express confidence in his chances: 71% of those who call Trump their first choice in the primary say he is at least likely to win, compared to just 30% of those who do not currently support to him.

Nearly three-quarters (73%) of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters say they are at least somewhat satisfied with the current field of Republican candidates running for president, although only 18% describe their himself as very satisfied. Only 7% say they are dissatisfied. That assessment is similar to how GOP-aligned voters viewed their options in July 2015, shortly after Trump entered the race, though slightly less favorable than how Democrats rated their own large main field in June 2019.

In the most recent poll, Trumps supporters were the most likely to be satisfied with 82% naming him as their first choice expressing satisfaction with the field overall. DeSantiss supporters are almost as likely to be satisfied, 79% say so. Other Republicans are less content: Only 47% of those who support other candidates or are undecided about who to support feel very or somewhat satisfied with their choices.

Many voters are at least theoretically open to considering multiple candidates, leaving room for the dynamics of the race to shift in the coming months. On average, GOP-aligned voters say they are willing to think about the probability of voting for about 6 out of 11 tested names.

Trump supporters aren’t necessarily locked into supporting him: Among those who call Trump their first choice in the primary, 87% also say they would consider supporting DeSantis, 55% who consider Scott, 51 % that they consider Haley and 50% that they consider radio host Larry Elder. And also, among those who did not call Trump their first choice, two-thirds (66%) still say they would consider supporting him. Only 16% of all GOP-aligned voters say they would not support the former president under any circumstances.

GOP-aligned voters who describe themselves as moderates or liberals are 15 percentage points less likely than conservatives to say they are satisfied with the GOP field. They also likely did not rule out the two current top contenders, with 31% of this group saying they would not consider supporting DeSantis and 26% saying they would not support Trump. By contrast, only 7% of conservatives say they would not support DeSantis, and only 11% say they would not support Trump.

There are other pockets of relatively strong opposition to the candidates among potential Republican electorates. About half, 51%, of those who deny Biden legitimately won the 2020 presidency say they would never support Pence, compared to 33% of those who say Biden won. And 3 in 10 White college graduates said they would never support Trump for the nomination, compared to 10% of White voters without a degree.

In a separate question, GOP-aligned voters were asked to pick up to three candidates they don’t support but would like to hear more about. Topping that list were Scott (29%), DeSantis (28%), Haley (24%) and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy (24%). Only 7% expressed an interest in learning more about Trump, ranking him near the bottom of the list.

Overall, Trump maintains a 77% overall favorability rating among GOP-aligned voters, with just 18% viewing him unfavorably. In contrast, former Republican President George W. Bushs rating is only 57%, with 29% viewing him unfavorably, and the rest expressing no opinion. Bush’s favorability rating is about 15 percent lower among core Trump supporters than among rest of the party voters. Neither of the two living former Republican presidents is very popular with the American public as a whole. Only 43% of adults have a favorable view of Bush and 37% feel positively about Trump.

The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS from May 17-20 among a random national sample of 1,227 adults drawn from a probability-based panel, including 476 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who are registered to vote. Surveys were conducted online or by telephone with a live interviewer. Results across the sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.7 points; among Republican and Republican-leaning voters, the margin of sampling error was 5.8 points.

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