Black voters’ lack of enthusiasm for Biden does not benefit Trump

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The Black vote is the soil every Democrat needs for a candidacy to blossom into a presidency. Joe Biden won 92% of the Black vote in 2020, and he needs a similarly large share of that vote if he wins re-election next year. But a new poll suggests that, so far, he hasn’t quite covered the ground. In a Washington Post/Ipsos poll of more than 1,200 Black, non-Hispanic adults, nearly half say Biden’s policies have made no difference in the lives of Black people.

It is highly likely that the widespread belief among Black people that Biden has made no difference in the lives of Black people will make little or no difference in how Black people vote.

Obviously, that’s not the feedback the president wants him to get less than a year and a half before Election Day 2024. But there’s a good chance that the widespread belief among Black people that Biden hasn’t made a difference in the lives of Black people will make little to no difference in how Black people vote. Because the same poll found that a larger share of Black adults would be outraged if Donald Trump was installed back in the White House.

The poll encapsulates the almost constant frustration for Black Americans: While rarely enthusiastic about Democrats and what they’re doing, they’re often driven to the brink of outrage by Republicans’ personalities, policies and plans. It is for that reason that a poll with some bad news for Biden does not necessarily translate into good news for Trump.

This is a question asked of Black adults: Do you think President Bidens policies have helped or hurt Black people/you personally, or have Bidens policies made no difference? Only 34% of Black voters said Bidens policies would help Blacks, and 14% said they would hurt Blacks. Again, 49% said his policies made no difference one way or the other. Regarding the impact of Bidens policies on individual Black respondents, 28% said they helped them, 11% said they hurt them and 58% said they made no change.

In its story about that poll, The Washington Post explained that while the president continues to receive relatively high marks from Black voters, he has yet to convince the majority that his policies have improved their lives. But is that why 92% of Black people voted for Biden in 2020, because they thought he made their lives better? Is that what Biden needs to do to hold onto Black voters in 2024, convince them that he has or will help improve their lives? Or will the anger of Black voters be motivation enough for Trump, assuming he is the Republican nominee?

This is the reason why Trump is not happy with the lukewarm assessment of Black people on Biden’s presidency. Despite believing that Biden has not done much for Black people, 66% of Black people somewhat agree or strongly agree with the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president.

When the same Black people were asked if they would consider voting for Trump in 2024, 78% said no and 9% said yes. When asked how they would feel if Trump were re-elected, 54% said they would be angry. Another 29% said they were dissatisfied.

Given the percentage of Black people who say they would be upset if Trump is reelected, there probably aren’t many Black voters willing to let their lack of enthusiasm for Biden cause them to sit out the next election.

This is the perfect recipe for being taken for granted, a feeling with which Black voters are numbingly familiar.

But Black voters would rather Biden not know that part. Because this is the perfect recipe for taking for granted, a feeling with which Black voters are numbingly familiar.

Consider what a Democratic strategist told NBC News in December 2021, nearly a year after Black voters completed the task of helping deliver the White House and the Senate to Democrats:

I think there was frustration that you asked us to go above and beyond and show up in the middle of a pandemic and in the middle of all the voter suppression, and not only did we deliver, but we delivered the Senate, said of strategists. And what do we get for it? We get a lot of evasion about the filibuster, a lot of excuses about Joe Manchin and being patient.

Those strategists’ assessment is not unlike what Shauntey Singletary, a 34-year-old Black woman in Delaware, told the Post about Biden.

I really don’t see any change in any of the things he was promoting when he was running for president, or the things he says he’s going to do for the Black community. I never saw that happen. When asked what Shed would do if Biden and Trump were on the ballot again next year, he sighed, the Post reported. Then he said, I’m definitely not going to vote for Trump.

Conventional wisdom says that voters need to have a candidate to vote for, not just a candidate to oppose. Conventional thinking also says that voters decide whether to re-elect an incumbent based on whether or not they believe their lives have improved. Biden would do well to run for re-election as if the conventional wisdom applied; that is, he would do well to run as if he had Black voters behind him.

Biden would do well to run for re-election as if he were behind Black voters.

As Terrance Woodbury, a Democratic pollster, told the Post, A red wave for Republicans doesn’t require a wave of Black voters voting Republican; it only requires a splintering of [our] coalition of 10,000 votes here or 20,000 votes there.

But since conventional wisdom rarely applies when Trump is on the ballot, the poll numbers are unlikely to be as devastating to Biden as they could be. Black voters may not be enthusiastically voting for him, but if Trump is his opponent, there is a good chance that their passionate voting will help him win.

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