Rams Aaron Donald 2023 Defensive Player of the Year? It can happen

[ad_1]

No player has ever won four Defensive Player of the Year awards in NFL history. Lawrence Taylor won his third in 1986. JJ Watt won his third Defensive Player of the Year award in 2015. In 2020, Aaron Donald won his third Defensive Player of the Year award with the Los Angeles Rams.

The same can be said about the NFLs Offensive Player of the Year where Earl Campbell and Marshall Faulk are the only players to win the award three times. The MVP is the only player to have won the award more than three times with Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning winning four and five times respectively.

Call it voter fatigue or players naturally decline in their prime years, no player has won the Defensive Player of the Year award more than three times. However, if Donald and the Rams’ defense exceeds expectations in 2023, the best defensive player of all time could be considered to break that barrier.

Outside of Donald, the Rams arguably have one of the least talented defenses in recent memory. The average NFL fan probably couldn’t name a player on the Rams defense outside of Donald. Second-year player Cobie Durant leads the secondary and Ernest Jones is the teams best linebacker. You can be high on players while also recognizing that they are not household names nor are they top-15 players at their position.

The Rams are currently projected to start five Day 3 picks in the secondary which includes Durant, Russ Yeast, Quentin Lake, Robert Rochell, and Derion Kendrick. That remains the same on the side where the most productive pass rusher is Michael Hoecht who is an undrafted free agent. Third-round pick Byron Young and a rotation of Day 3 picks fill that position group.

To say the least, Aaron Donald and a bunch of castaways aren’t expected to be among the top defenses in the NFL, let alone top-15 or even top-20. For reference, Bleacher Reports Krisopher Knox ranked the Rams defense 31st in his post draft rankings. said Knox,

Donald is 31 and coming off a campaign cut short by an ankle injury; there is no guarantee that hell is playing at an elite level this season. Simply put, the Rams defense is poised to take a big step back this season, and it wasn’t particularly good a year ago.

Arif Hasan of the Pro Football Network ranked the Rams defense 32nd.

The Los Angeles Rams are expected to have the worst defense in the NFL. It’s a shame, because the Rams have the single best defensive player on their team, but neither player can produce results, especially when surrounded by talent that could match their massive undrafted free agent class to begin with.

CBS Sports also ranked the Rams with the worst defense in the NFL. In other words, Raheem Morris’ defense is not ranked outside of the bottom-five by the NFL media.

To be clear, this is not necessarily an unfair review. It won’t surprise many if the Rams’ defense actually turns out to be one of the worst units in the NFL when 2023 is all said and done for all the reasons mentioned above.

Still, it shows the kind of uphill battle Donald faces and how good he is from an individual standpoint to elevate the defense in even a mid-tier group.

I wrote about this topic earlier this offseason. Is it possible that an Aaron Donald defense is the worst in the NFL? A few things to keep in mind here:

An Aaron Donald defense has never ranked lower than 18th in DVOA and that was the last season when he spent half the year hurt. Last season, the Rams ranked 21st in defense EPA which was the lowest ranking of Donalds career. However, from Week 1 through Week 11, the Rams’ defense was 13th. The Rams had six top-10 seasons in both defense EPA and DVOA with Donald. In Donalds’ nine seasons, LA’s defense was ranked in the top-10 in advanced analytics six times.

After injury in recent seasons, it’s fair to have some concerns about Donald and wonder if he’s still capable of super-human abilities. Pro Football Focus recently ranked Donald as their top interior defensive lineman in the NFL heading into the 2023 season. Here is what Gordon McGuinness had to say,

Despite posting his lowest PFF grade since his rookie year, Donald remains a dominant force on the defensive interior. During his nine-year career, he produced 90.0-plus PFF grades in every season. Last year, he recorded 40 pressures in 396 pass-rushing snaps, so the production is still there even in an injury-marred season.

Among defensive linemen and edge rushers, Donald still has the third-highest grade on defense according to Pro Football Focus. He ranked 13th in pressures and eighth in quarterback hurries from Week 1 through Week 11. It may not be super-human, but it’s still pretty good.

In 2017, Donald won his first of three Defensive Player of the Year awards with 11 sacks. The next best player on that defense is Trumaine Johnson who is out of the NFL three years later after leaving free agency. Donald has more help on the defensive line with Michael Brockers and also on the sidelines with Robert Quinn. However, this is not a select group of stars.

At the age of 31, does Donald still have the ability to reach the highest level of the elite? Hell need to if he brings this defense. Only four players in NFL history have won the Defensive Player of the Year Award after the age of 30 and the last time was in 2009. Those players were Reggie White (37), Charles Woodson (33), Bruce Smith ( 33), and Jason Taylor (32). White had 16 sacks in 1998 while Smith and Taylor had 13.5 in 1996 and 2006.

If the current version of Los Angeles’ defense finishes in the 10-15 range and they make the postseason, Donald should be in serious conversation to win his fourth Defensive Player of the Year award. It will be an incredible task to elevate this group of players to that level.

Today, giving Donald his fourth Defensive Player of the Year award is the NFL media’s acknowledgment that he is the greatest defensive player of all time. In fact, no player has won the award four times. He had to be special to her for this to happen and there was no doubt about it.

Although Donald is the greatest, breaking that barrier will end any argument. It’s hard to see the media doing that with how Lawrence Taylor is seen in NFL history. Whether that’s fair to Donald or not, that’s just the reality of the situation.

Because of this Donald received only three votes in 2021. While TJ Watt was eligible and had a historic season, Donald tied with Micah Parsons with three votes, showing voter fatigue for the Rams star defensive lineman .

Donald currently has the ninth best odds to win the award at +2500. For a three-time Defensive Player of the Year winner, he flies under the radar in the betting markets. Coming into the season healthy and refreshed, we will see Donald return to his elite level. If he does and the Rams’ defense exceeds expectations, he should win his fourth Defensive Player of the Year award.

[ad_2]