How Donald Trump, of all people, will determine the next governor of WA

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Democratic Party politics around here, which is to say all politics of late, is a bit like the old Soviet Politburo. You wait your turn for this or that post, and then the whole party lines up.

This is what happened the last time Washington had an open seat for governor, in 2012. The party fielded just one candidate, then-Congressman Jay Inslee, and no Democrat has seen fit to challenge him since.

That respectful party pecking order is one reason why the top three elected state officials Inslee and our two US senators have held their positions for a combined 62 years now.

So what’s happening in the race for governor now counts as a sea change, or at least a fresh breeze blowing through the elegant hallways. Suddenly, it’s shaping up to be the most wide-open, contested statewide Democratic primary in nearly 30 years.

The entry into the race last week of moderate state senator and pizzeria owner Mark Mullet, D-Issaquah, means there are now three legitimate Democratic contenders. He joins a field that includes the presumptive next-in-line candidate, state Attorney General Bob Ferguson, as well as state Lands Commissioner Hilary Franz, known for her focus on the environment and firefighting in forest

The last time a pileup like this happened on the left was the 1996 gubernatorial primary, when King County Executive Gary Locke defeated fellow Democrats Jay Inslee (yes, he ran for governor then too) and Seattle Mayor Norm Rice. What is notable about that campaign is that Locke won the primary with only 23.6% of the vote, while a Republican, Sen. Ellen Craswell of the state, squeaked by in the general election with just 15.3%. (Locke easily won the final.)

We’ve adopted a top-two primary since then, meaning both finalists now could be Democrats.

But the race may hinge on two things Democrats don’t usually think about Republican voters, and the looming shadow of Donald Trump.

There is a real chance that Republicans could decide which Democrat will move into the governor’s mansion, as the Washington Observer politics newsletter put it last week.

The reason may be that there was not a large GOP presence in the campaign. If the party fields another slate of conspiracy theorists, grifters and constitutionalist gun nuts, as it did in the 2020 campaign that nominated Police Chief Loren Culp, it could leave voters in the middle of the road, not MAGA throwing somewhere, anywhere, go.

Enter the Mullet.

He’s a bit of a wild card, said Ron Dotzauer, head of the Seattle politics and lobbying firm Strategies 360. Business people and moderates are looking to support someone, and it probably won’t be a Republican whoever that is. .

Mullet is trying to be a political unicorn: the socially liberal fiscal conservative. He voted for abortion rights and assault weapons bans, but against new taxes. His candidacy will be a test of whether such a middle line still exists in polarized politics.

In a crowded field, it is possible to get into the general election by winning as little as 20%, or less, of the primary vote. So the lane doesn’t have to be that wide.

As for Democratic voters, they’ll get something amazing that they haven’t gotten in an election for one of the big three statewide offices in decades: a choice.

Mullet himself followed his own parties stagnant hierarchical system in his announcement last week.

Every governor in the last 30 years has been a lawyer, with the same old solution and way of thinking, he said. Lawyers are good at finding ways to sue people, while small business owners are good at creating jobs and finding ways to save money.

He has a point, right? The problem here, however, is that Ferguson was good at suing someone in particular who also happened to be the most hated politician for Democrats in the history of this country, as Dotzauer said.

Ferguson will happily tell you the story: He sued the Trump administration 99 times! He still maintains a page on the attorney generals official website dedicated to all of them. The most famous came just 10 days into Trumps presidency, when Ferguson defeated Trumps bigoted Muslim travel ban, winning a nationwide restraining order.

Fergusons campaign launch video included a clip of MSNBC host Rachel Maddow laughing at how Ferguson has completely cut off the Trump administration at the knees. That memory is catnip to nervous Democrats.

If Republicans cut ties with Trump, either by impeaching him on January 6 or simply by switching to more respectable standard-bearers, the story of Bob and his 99 lawsuits may be old news by now.

If Trump makes the ballot, though, or even threatens to do so, Democrats seem likely to rally strongly behind Ferguson. If the election itself is an existential crisis for democracy, will you join the brawler Trump fighter? Or the land official or the pizza shop owner?

It will be another bitter irony of local GOP misadventures with Trump if it ends up fueling the rise of their least favorite official on the scene after Jay Inslee. And it will be well deserved.

Danny Westneat: [email protected]; Danny Westneat looks at the news, people and politics of the Puget Sound region.

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