Trump cruises, DeSantis flatlines in polls even after bombshell accusations

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The post-launch bounce for DeSantis and former Vice President Mike Pence? Not according to public polls. A bump for Sen. Tim Scott (SC) after his official kickoff? Yes, but only enough to vault him into the mid-single-digits, roughly tied for third place with Pence and Scotts fellow South Carolinian, Nikki Haley.

And, more importantly, Trump’s grip on key GOP voters remains intact despite his federal indictment last week on charges he evaded using classified documents from the White House. Nationally, Trump is above 50 percent in the RealClearPolitics average since early April following his second criminal indictment, in New York City and the three polls conducted mostly or entirely after his second indictment showed him between 51 percent and 53 percent.

The lack of movement between candidates in a busy season suggests the race is, on the whole, stable. Trump leads DeSantis whose support has faded somewhat since earlier this year with other candidates still vying for a toehold. And it’s likely to stay that way for the next two months, until the first televised debate on August 23.

Trump: Stick with the Republicans, but there’s a problem

The first indictment against Trump handed down last spring by a Manhattan grand jury in the hush-money case involving porn star Stormy Daniels actually boosted Trump in the Republican primary.

That’s not happening this time around, though for now there’s also no indication that the federal charges Trump faces in Florida make Republican primary voters any more likely to say they want him to be the party’s nominee in 2024. .

Trump leads DeSantis, his closest competitor, by at least 30 points in three national polls conducted mostly or entirely after news of the federal indictment. And he’s well over 50 percent in each of the surveys, from The Messenger/HarrisX (53 percent), Quinnipiac University (53 percent) and The Economist/YouGov (51 percent).

On the day of Trump’s first impeachment, he stood at 46 percent in the national RealClearPolitics average, with DeSantis at 30 percent. Within a week, Trump was over 50 percent. He now leads DeSantis, 52 percent to 21 percent.

But Trump’s continued strength in the GOP primary belies his weak position among the general electorate. A new NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist College poll conducted after the indictment and released Friday found that a majority of registered voters want Trump to drop out of the race, and about half (49 percent) believe he broke the law, which is consistent with other surveys showing widespread concern among Americans about Trump’s behavior.

DeSantis: Where’s the bounce?

DeSantis’ 9-point drop over the past two and a half months is also evidence that the Florida governor hasn’t seen much improvement since the late May launch of his campaign. He was at 23 percent in this week’s Quinnipiac poll, statistically unchanged from the 25 percent he registered in Quinnipiacs previous survey, conducted in the days before his announcement.

In fact, DeSantis’ share of the vote in RealClearPolitics’ national average today is the same as where it stood on May 24, the day he launched his campaign: 21 percent.

Of course, the nomination will not be decided by a simultaneous national primary, and the allies of DeSantis are clear that they are banking on a strong performance in Iowa, which will hold the first caucuses, probably next January.

There hasn’t been much independent polling in Iowa lately—the only recent poll in the RealClearPolitics database was from the Trump-friendly online outlet American Greatness more than a week ago—but other data streams suggest the DeSantis push in Iowa is continuing. enthusiastic

Never Back Down, the pro-DeSantis super PAC, was the top spender on the Iowa airwaves this week, even as the campaign of North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgums is a close second (and campaigns generally pay lower rates for advertising than outside groups like super PACs, meaning Burgums’ money is likely more than Never Back Downs).

The field: Signs of life for Scott, Christie

While Trump and DeSantis remain stagnant, there are smaller moves happening among candidates fighting to emerge from the lower ranks.

Scott, who began his campaign the same week as DeSantis, has seen his polls rise. He has averaged about 4 percent in national polls since his launch, and he reached 7 percent in an American Greatness poll in New Hampshire this week.

Aside from the self-funding Burgum, Scott and his allied super PAC, Trust in the Mission PAC, have been the top advertisers this week in New Hampshire.

Meanwhile, another candidate is also rising in the polls in New Hampshire: former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

Christie, who launched his campaign last week at a town hall just outside Manchester, is hoping for a strong showing in the first-in-the-nation primary state. And two polls this week have him third or tied for third: He’s even with Scott at 7 percent in the American Greatness poll, and he also reached 9 percent in a New Hampshire poll from the conservative website New Hampshire Journal on Friday .

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