The return of Donald Trump haunts the Western alliance

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Poland’s government, which comes from the populist right, has fond memories of Trump. As president, he made his most important speech in Europe in Warsaw. The nativist conservative nationalism of Poland’s ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party maps closely to the ideology of key Trump advisers, such as Stephen Miller.

But PiSs’ ideological affinity with Trump may be blinding them to the danger of a sudden withdrawal of US support for Ukraine. This will leave the countries closest to Russia, including Poland, high, dry and on the front line. If Trump combines a Ukraine cut-off with strengthening his oft-stated skepticism about NATO, there will be an absolute security scare in Europe.

That, in turn, would give new impetus to a weakened Russia.

In the long run, a second Trump presidency could push Europeans to seek the strategic autonomy from the US that French President Emmanuel Macron has long demanded. But this kind of migration takes time and money. Europe lacks both.

Europe’s chances of being plunged into a security crisis by a Trump presidency are boosted by the fact that there is a strong mindset in Republican circles that argues that the US should focus all its resources on the challenge. from China, and leave Europe to deal with the supposedly lesser threat posed by Russia.

Both the Trump and Biden administrations have adopted more confrontational policies toward China, increasing trade restrictions and strengthening America’s network of alliances in Asia. Observing that trend, a Chinese policymaker recently argued with me that Beijing could remain highly indifferent to the results of the US presidential election. Whoever wins, he said, it will likely be more of the same.

But Trump is highly unpredictable. Others in Beijing worry that he could empower some of the most hawkish voices in Washington such as Mike Pompeo, Trump’s former secretary of state, who has called on America to recognize Taiwan as an independent country. China has always insisted that Taiwan’s independence would mean war.

Trumps own instinct, however, is isolationist. A well-received book on his policies toward China, during his first term, says Trump made it clear, in private, that he had no intention of defending Taiwan. If the disregard for Taiwan’s fate becomes more blatant during Trump’s second term, it will embolden Beijing and alarm America’s allies in the region.

If Trump seriously weakens America’s security presence in Asia, Japan, South Korea and Australia will all face a serious security problem. One possible response is the development of nuclear weapons. Another is to go in the opposite direction and move towards appeasing China.

There are, of course, some countries and leaders who are unlikely to welcome Trump back to the White House. Benjamin Netanyahus Israel, Viktor Orbns Hungary and Mohammed bin Salmans Saudi Arabia will be prominent among them.

All of these governments have been criticized, however mildly, by Democratic Party leaders for human rights abuses or democratic apostasy. Trump’s indifference to these kinds of concerns and his weakness for strongmen will make him a popular choice in Riyadh, Jerusalem and Budapest.

Trump’s own rhetoric, however, suggests he is more preoccupied with avenging his enemies at home than in the outside world. A second Trump presidency could see the US government descend into chaos as the White House seeks to clean up the deep state, putting diehard Trump loyalists in charge of key institutions like the FBI and Department of Justice.

America’s allies cannot imagine that what happens in Washington stays in Washington.

Creeping authoritarianism and the erosion of judicial independence in Hungary, Poland and Turkey are real concerns for those countries that are NATO allies and EU partners. But it will be a bigger deal if an American president pursues Orbn-style policies.

The US remains the cornerstone of the Western alliance. If that rock starts to crumble, America’s allies are in deep trouble.

Financial Times

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