The Iowa caucuses are six months away. Some Republicans worry that Trump may be unstoppable

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NEW YORK (AP) He has been charged twice. Found liable for sexual abuse. And nearly a third of his party doesn’t think well of him. But six months before Republicans begin choosing their next presidential nominee, former President Donald Trump remains the race’s dominant front-runner.

Past leaders have not always gone on to win their party’s nomination, but a growing sense of Trump’s inevitability has raised alarms among some Republicans desperate for the party to move on. Some described a sense of panic or DEFCON 1,” as one said as they scrambled to try to derail Trump and change the course of the race. But there was no clear plan or strategy for how to do it and detractors Trump’s is not rallying around a single alternative candidate yet.

They’re very worried,” former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan said of fellow Republican leaders who were of the view that renaming Trump would be a disaster for the party next November. Hogan, who opted out of his own campaign out of fear that Trump would only benefit the tough Republican field, describing a moment of realization that, Oh my gosh, we might actually have Trump as the nominee.

People expect us to make more progress than we have at this point,” he said as polls found Trump regularly beating his closest rivals by 20 to 30 points or more.

Of course, the six months remaining until the Iowa caucuses can be an eternity in politics, where races can turn in weeks or days. And Trump faces glaring vulnerabilities, including state and federal investigations into his efforts to subvert the 2020 election and the possibility that he will find himself in the unprecedented position of standing trial while simultaneously mounting a campaign. .

But even critics acknowledge outside events that many expected to tarnish Trump’s status like his criminal indictments in New York and Florida have not hurt him. In fact, the charges led some voters who entertained an alternative to return to Trump’s camp.

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The indictments really helped Donald Trump with Republican primary voters,” said Art Pope, a North Carolina GOP donor who supports former Vice President Mike Pence, but still believes the charges, especially in New York , is baseless.

Meanwhile, anti-Trump Republicans have yet to agree on an alternative, as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has struggled to build momentum, leaving many still waiting to see if another viable alternative can emerge from the pack. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott has gained growing attention.

Some groups opposed to Trump’s candidacy have begun spending big on efforts to undermine his support, even though they haven’t yet rallied around another candidate. Win It Back PAC, a new independent super PAC affiliated with the conservative Club For Growth Action, spent $3.6 million this month on a new ad featuring a purported Trump supporter tired of the former president’s antics.

I love Donald Trump, I love what he’s done,” he began. But he’s got so many distractions … and I’m not sure he can focus on moving the country forward.”

The conservative Americans for Prosperity Action, part of the network founded by the billionaire Koch brothers, also sought to undermine Trump with door-knocking and phone calls. The group said it found in conversations with voters that Trump’s support is softer than most had thought and that even some who identify as Trump supporters are concerned about his electability in a general election and open to an alternative.

Their mailers to voters in early states focused on that message, including one that featured pictures of Trump and President Joe Biden and asked recipients, Is the risk worth it?

While the group’s officials acknowledge they face pressure to rally around a non-Trump candidate, they say they are now focused on laying the groundwork for an alternative Trump to emerge.

Most of the people who are talking are there, too,” said Drew Klein, the groups’ state director. “They’re not locked into one candidate, but they know we have to move on.

Not everyone, however, agrees with the anti-Trump approach. Former GOP pollster Frank Luntz, who runs focus groups in Iowa, warned such messaging makes Trump more likely to win because it makes him a victim.”

He said he found Republican voters open to an alternative and that the first GOP debate, scheduled for Aug. 23, will be critical.

The moon and the stars will need to be aligned for Trump to be defeated,” he said. And this will be done by a candidate who supports the Trump agenda but opposes the lack of success.

Political trajectories can change in an instant, particularly after voting begins. During the 2008 campaign, the eventual GOP nominee, Arizona Sen. John McCain, did not emerge as the race’s frontrunner until January 2008. And then Sen. Hillary Clinton appeared to have a decisive lead for the Democratic nomination until Barack Obama overtook her.

But no former president has run after losing re-election in modern times. And Trump maintains a fervent grip on one part of the party. In fact, it was eight years ago this month that the former-reality star and political newcomer began leading in the polls, edging out rival Jeb Bush to move into first place in a position he held until he won the nomination .

Ralph Reed, a longtime Republican strategist and chairman of the evangelical Faith and Freedom Coalition, said Trump remains in the “strongest position” of any candidate, but still believes the race will be “competitive and hard-fought.” .

No one should take any state for granted, no one should take this primary for granted because anything can happen and often does,” he said. Almost all front-runners have near-death experiences.

Critics and rival campaigns point to what they see as a growing list of missteps in Trump’s campaign, particularly in Iowa, where he has criticized the state’s popular governor, Kim Reynolds, for his apparent cozy relationship with DeSantis while claiming to be neutral. He also skipped a pair of GOP gatherings that drew most of his top rivals.

After his rivals spent Friday in Iowa at the Family Leadership Summit, Trump was on stage largely to himself Saturday at the annual Turning Point Action conference, a gathering of thousands of young conservatives in Florida.

While DeSantis has a long-standing relationship with organizer Charlie Kirk and was featured at last year’s event with Trump and received a warm welcome from the crowd, DeSantis declined the groups’ invitation, citing a scheduling conflict.

You only have a few opportunities in the grand scheme of an election cycle to get in front of the major groups and all the media and to miss this opportunity to lay out your vision for America, I just think one of the biggest mistake,” said Tyler Bowyer, chief operating officer of Turning Point Action.

Trump, in his remarks to the group, called DeSantis’ campaign hopeless and said the millions he raised and spent should be used to support the party that wins against Crooked Joe Biden in November of 2024.

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