A Trump-light, Ukraine-heavy Aspen Security Forum

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And everyone did their best not to talk about the looming elephant in the room: Donald Trump.

Here are some of our takeaways from four days of group discussions, one-on-one interviews and the occasional ambush with officials at posh hotels in the Aspens. (It’s hard work, we promise.)

The Middle East is an afterthought

While the Middle East remains turbulent, there is remarkably little mention of the region in these years of gathering. Asia, particularly China, received greater billing, as did topics such as space policy.

During the four-day event, a panel devoted entirely to the Middle East (Shifting Tides: A New Middle East?) did not feature current government officials. There also seem to be few regional representatives in attendance.

Of course, the Middle East has arisen in other contexts, such as broader discussions on democracy. Overall, however, the lack of emphasis on the region is a sign of how the United States, especially under President Joe Biden, is prioritizing other global challenges.

Team Biden seems determined to be boring

A parade of Biden administration officials arrived in Aspen but they didn’t make many major headlines.

Blinken said he didn’t think expanding the use of land routes would make up for the volume of goods lost after Russia pulled out of the Black Sea grain deal. Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, said the US had taken a risk with its support for Ukraine.

These are incremental advances on what everyone already knows, but don’t offer any real new insights into the administration’s thinking on some big problems.

CIA Director Bill Burns made the biggest splash, noting that Russian elites are beginning to question the leadership of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

But, in general, senior Biden administration officials have passed up many opportunities to make major statements on US-Israel policy or Ukrainian operations.

The administration’s message discipline and drama-free approach to communications have been hallmarks of the Biden years, and they have remained true to the build-up in the Rockies.

Ukraine is now a waiting game

The war in Ukraine was a major topic, and top Ukrainian officials, including Zelenskyy and head of the presidential office Andriy Yermak, made virtual appearances. US and Ukrainian officials offered many assurances.

Ukraine is winning this war, and Russia is losing this war, UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said.

But little has been said that hasn’t already been said, and no immediate success is expected.

Alina Polyakova, head of the Center for European Policy Analysis, said that the issue in Ukraine seems to be in a holding pattern.

What I gather from this conversation is that Russia’s war in Ukraine has just been baked into the global map, he said.

This is not a happy thing for the Ukrainians, who have repeatedly said they want to win the war, and quickly. But, as usual, they asked for continued military support from the West, including F-16s and long-range missiles, and said their counteroffensive against Russia was going according to plan.

Zelenskyy added that his military was approaching [the] moment when actions can gain speed.

Colin Kahl, until recently a top Pentagon official, warned against despair. The Ukrainians have yet to use much of their defensive power in the counteroffensive, he pointed out. Asked to predict what things will look like on earth at the end of the years, however, Kahl declines.

We should all be humble enough not to make predictions about what is happening in the war in Ukraine because it has not gone according to plan for anyone at any stage, he said.

It’s time to regulate AI

Enormous attention has been paid to the promise and danger of artificial intelligence here. US and foreign officials, current and former, say now is a good chance to ensure that this powerful, ever-evolving tool can be used to benefit humanity, not harm it.

I have no doubt that it can be good, said Cleverly in his public talk.

Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the US ambassador to the United Nations, said the global body should develop and enforce global rules around technology.

The potential negative side of AI needs to be regulated, and only the UN can regulate it for the world, the ambassador said.

Companies like Microsoft, a sponsor of the conference, have called on world governments to establish policies on the development and use of AI even as they want to be involved in making what those look like. There has been little push by the Aspen company on the idea, though the business community is generally wary of regulating an advancing technology.

Trump is Voldemort

This is the last Aspen Security Forum before the 2024 campaign gets really crazy, so maybe people just want to enjoy normality a little longer. Regardless, it’s remarkable how rarely Donald Trump is mentioned and how few people want to talk about him.

Again and again, POLITICO asked current and former officials in Aspen to talk about how they feel about a potential second Trump presidency. Most didn’t appreciate the question, almost ducking for cover.

My God! said Monica Juma, the Kenyan president’s national security adviser. Nope. That’s not for me.

Others have spoken out privately to express concern about how Trumps brand of chaos could undermine the best-laid national security plans, including efforts to help Ukraine defeat Russia.

Next year, the forum will be held a few months before the US election. Will Trump, the presumptive GOP nominee or Biden, for that matter, be invited to speak? A spokeswoman for the forum said it would return closer to next summer.

Either way, perhaps the people in attendance had more to say about what a second Trump term might mean.

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