Opinion: If Donald Trump loses the GOP primary, will his supporters abandon the nominee?

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On Capitol Hill and in other Democratic circles, many Democrats believe that Donald Trump will be easier to defeat in the general election than Ron DeSantis.

Trump certainly has weaknesses. Most of the country doesn’t like him, for reasons too obvious and numerous to list here. He has also been indicted twice and is likely to face additional criminal charges between now and the election, although so far he appears to be relatively unscathed.

In addition, Trump is seen as the candidate who will most mobilize the Democratic base and Democratic funders as well.

But Trump is unique in some ways that give him special powers. Ironically, one of these powers is something that comes from a personality trait that almost no politician, demagogue or even dictator likes to display in public. But Trump seems proud of it: his apparent disregard for most anyone but himself.

This suggests that Trump has the ability, and possibly the willingness, to throw his party under the bus if he loses the presidential primary. It could easily make any other Republican nominee a sitting duck.

Trump’s large following among Republican voters, currently around 52%, has been described as a kind of cult following. But regardless of the relationship between Trump and his voters, current polls indicate that millions of them will side with him in the battle for the leadership of the party. In an NBC poll last month, 34% of Republican or Republican-leaning voters said they were more supporters of Donald Trump than supporters of the Republican Party.

What happens if anyone but Trump wins the Republican primary? Will Trump accept the result, or will we see a repeat of “stop the theft”? If it’s the latter, it seems likely that a significant number of Republican voters will stay home for the general election. In that scenario, current data indicates that Republicans will lose the White House.

If Trump loses the primary, there are several possible outcomes besides his outright rejection of the results that could also spell defeat for the Republican nominee. Given the size of Trump’s loyal base, and Trump’s fiery style, a primary won by another candidate is likely to be a close and very unpleasant race. If Trump refuses to endorse the winner, a large portion of his loyal base could stay home. Currently, Trump has not pledged to support the nominee. And it is not clear what his promise would mean if he offered it; in 2015, he signed this pledge but later reneged on it.

Even if Trump gives a weak endorsement without sufficient and perhaps repeated appeal to his base, a significant portion of his base may still stay home.

It seems wise to consider other unexpected results than those that have occurred in previous elections by considering Trump’s unique characteristics and relationship with the largest voting bloc in the Republican Party.

The general election is 16 months away, and many campaign resources will be deployed before the Republican presidential candidate is selected next July. It doesn’t make sense to look at Trump as if he were a normal candidate from the past. He is not.

Mark Weisbrot is co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, an economic policy think tank.

The Chicago Tribune

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