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The split in the vaccination rate between the red and blue states is more severe than before:
The United States looks increasingly unlikely to reach President Joe Biden’s July 4 vaccine goal. We need at least 70% of all adults to have a dose of Covid-19 vaccine, and we are at a rate of having between 67% and 68%. The overall picture masks, however, an underlying pattern: Almost all of the states Biden has won will make his goal, while all of the states he has lost are unlikely. The share of the vaccine portion among adults is greater than at present. As the CDC reported Thursday, 69.9% of adults in the average state that Biden won received at least one dose, meaning those states typically reached Biden’s goal with more in a little over three weeks to go. Compare this to the states that lost to Biden and won to Donald Trump, where an average of 54.9% of adults received at least one dose. The states that Trump won are nowhere near where the Biden-won states are. You have to go back more than a month for the states that Biden won to average the vaccination rate as low as the states that Trump won.
When you separate it by individual states, 13 of the 25 states Biden took last fall hit the 70% mark. An additional 7 states have at least 67% of all adults with a dose, so they are likely to reach the 70% threshold by the time July 4 rolls. There are zero states taken. of Trump last fall with at least 67% of adults with at least one dose of the vaccine. The closest was Nebraska at 62.8%, which is lower than all but four states Biden won (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Nevada). The only Biden-won state that is unlikely to reach the mark was among the closest to the last election: Wisconsin and the aforementioned Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin. Biden emerged the winner by less than 3 points in all of them. In fact, it’s not just the binary (whether Biden won or lost the state) that increasingly predicts vaccination rates, but how much Biden won in the state. On a scale of -1 to +1, the correlation is +0.85 between Biden’s 2020 margin in one state and the adult vaccination rate in one state.
If Tucker Carlson’s goal was to make as many of his viewers unnecessarily infected with a deadly virus as possible, the mission has been accomplished!
What’s particularly remarkable about this is that Operation Warp Speed (although it didn’t directly lead to the development of the Pfizer vaccine) was usually the only good thing Trump was responsible for, and vaccinations began with Trump in office. Republican propaganda outlets may have encouraged their viewers to take the Trump Vaccine, but they will have to put value into the lives of ordinary Americans so here we are.
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