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Local COVID-19 “breakthrough” cases are much more prevalent than initially expected – likely due to the increase in the Delta variant, according to an analysis of COVID-19 cases reported between July 1 and July 17 by the Prince William Health District.
Of the 233 new cases of COVID-19 reported in the health district in the first three weeks of July, between 56 to 66 of them – or about 25 to 30% – involved people fully vaccinated against COVID-19, Sean said. Morris, a COVID-19 epidemiologist from the Prince William Health District.
Since Sunday August 1, the VDH “COVID-19 cases by vaccination status” web page showed just 19 groundbreaking cases out of a total of 2,686 COVID-19 cases reported in northern Virginia since July 1. These data suggest that more than 99% of cases since July 1 have been in unvaccinated residents, which was not true in Prince William Health District. according to the new analysis.
The VDH website lists cases by immunization status only by region and not by individual health district.
Morris said the discrepancy was related to the time it takes to fully analyze and report cases to the VDH, which then conducts its own review.
“Our specific case numbers are not released until they are sent to the state for further review and publication,” Morris said in a July 30 email.
Morris further highlighted a statement on the VDH website that notes that every groundbreaking case is reviewed by a “subject matter expert” and matched against state immunization records maintained through the Virginia Immunization Information System.
“It takes longer and may delay reporting of cases on this dashboard,” says the VDH website.
“It may help explain the discrepancies between our data and what is published as they do additional quality assurance on it,” Morris said.
The groundbreaking case count in the Prince William Health District, which includes the county, Manassas and Manassas Park, was not available earlier this week, health district director of community engagement Sean Johnson told Prince William time Tuesday July 27.
Given the increase in the Delta variant, which is at least twice as contagious as the original strain of the coronavirus, the increase in breakthrough cases is not unexpected and is in line with what epidemiologists report in the country, Morris said.
Morris also said the data underscores the need for people who have not yet been vaccinated to get vaccinated as soon as possible.
“Cases of rupture are expected as the spread increases, and [the Prince William Health District] appears to be in line with national trends, ”Morris said. “And with the growth of the Delta variant and the increase in cases, getting the vaccine now is vital.”
“Even if you contract COVID after being vaccinated, the vaccine gives your immune system a head start to fight it, which significantly reduces the risk of you having serious illness,” he added.
Indeed, the recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in and around the seaside town of Cape Cod in Provincetown, Massachusetts, prompted the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to change their mask guidelines last week. On Friday, the CDC released his report outbreak analyzes. In total, they involved more than 900 cases which were attributed to rallies around the July 4th bank holiday weekend.
About three-quarters of those infected were fully vaccinated, but few had severe cases. A total of seven people were hospitalized and no deaths were reported.
The CDC report says the cases indicate that the Delta variant is highly contagious, and people who have been vaccinated can become infected with the variant and pass it on to others. Importantly, samples from vaccinated people showed they carried the same amount of virus as unvaccinated people, according to the CDC report.
The CDC now recommends that vaccinated and unvaccinated people in areas with “substantial” or “high” community transmission of the virus resume wearing face masks in indoor public spaces and even outdoors in crowded places.
The CDC investigation also suggests that jurisdictions without substantial or high COVID-19 transmission rates “consider expanding prevention strategies, including masking in indoor public places, regardless of vaccination status, given the potential risk of infection when attending large public gatherings that include travelers from many countries. areas with different transmission levels, ”the report said.
The towns of Manassas and Manassas Park fall within the “moderate” transmission zone, according to VDH data.
Additional preventive measures are recommended
Morris said new information on the spread of the Delta variant among the vaccinated and unvaccinated underscores the importance of not only vaccinations but also testing for those with symptoms of COVID-19 – regardless of their status. vaccine.
“As fall approaches, when we see an increase in the number of cases, it is critical that we all take steps to protect ourselves from COVID and ensure that we are working to limit the spread and avoid future flare-ups by getting vaccinated, staying home and looking for tests if you feel sick and following VDH recommendations, ”Morris said.
Most cases among vaccinees are not serious
Almost all of the groundbreaking cases that occur across the country are either asymptomatic or mild, and hospitalizations and deaths among those vaccinated are extremely rare, “which is a trend we are also seeing in PWHD,” Morris said. .
Nationally, about 99.5% of deaths associated with COVID-19 since the vaccine’s deployment have been among the unvaccinated, according to the CDC, and a Yale study found that the vaccination prevented up to 279,000 COVID deaths nationwide and 1.25 million hospitalizations, Morris said.
The CDC also found a seven-fold reduction in the likelihood of being hospitalized after vaccination and a 20-fold reduction in the risk of hospitalization or death, Morris said.
“While we’re all disappointed with the COVID trends we’re seeing, the good news is that we now have the tools and knowledge we need to protect ourselves and turn the corner,” Morris said.
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