Typical ‘vaccine hesitant’ is 42-year-old Ontarian voting Liberal: Abacus poll

If science is right, and I personally trust it, we are at the final turning point in this pandemic, at least when it comes to the things we can do in Canada to keep us safe. While we’re unlikely to stumble, every day we see examples of how we might.

I recently read a story about a conservative radio host known for his vaccine skepticism. Right before COVID-19 killed him, he told people he made a mistake in not getting the shot.

How does it work in an advanced society, we ask ourselves? How do some read that today’s infections occur almost exclusively among the unvaccinated – and still think it’s a bad idea to get the vaccine? How can parents have the slightest doubt about the need to immunize their children’s teachers?

Since COVID-19 vaccines first appeared last fall, our Abacus Data team has been studying public opinion on vaccination. After more than 30,000 interviews on the subject, here is where we are; all of our work has been shared as a contribution to a coalition of organizations work together to help promote vaccinations.

Based on an adult population of 29.5 million in Canada, our latest results show that 7% or 2.1 million adults are hesitant and the same number outright refuses a COVID-19 vaccination.

Understanding how to increase vaccine uptake begins with recognizing that hesitant and deniers share some similarities, but in other ways are quite different.

Let’s start with the ‘vaccine hesitant’, people who say they are ‘willing but would rather wait a little longer’ or ‘would rather not but could be persuaded’.

The number of hesitant vaccines is much lower today than it was a few months ago, and there is a good chance it will still be in a month. But while the reluctance has dropped from 21% in May to 7% today, the past few weeks have gone more slowly.

Yet, based on the attitudes of the hesitant, there’s a good chance we will reach 90 percent of fully immunized adults – and maybe even a point or two more than that.

The hesitant are not conspiracy theorists. They are not mad at the world. They don’t think COVID-19 is a hoax. They are not radicals on the left or the right – 61% of them say they are in the center of the spectrum. Two-thirds have post-secondary education. They might be shy, but they’re not stupid.

Almost half of them (46%) live in Ontario and more than half of them (59%) are women. A quarter were born outside of Canada. Their average age is 42 years and the plurality is between 30 and 44 years. If they voted in the federal election today, 35% would vote Liberal, 25% Conservative, 17% NDP, 9% Green – quite similar to the overall voting intentions for the general population.

However, compared to the vaccinated, they don’t have much confidence in the government. They also try to avoid prescriptions, dislike putting anything abnormal in their body, and 83% say they are reluctant to take vaccines. Most fear that COVID-19 vaccines have not really been tested for a long time.

Just under half hate needles, and 43% think that if others get vaccinated, they don’t need to.

A third say their doctor could persuade them and a quarter say friends and family can. A similar number say they will get vaccinated if it makes it easier to attend events and travel.

In short, many hesitant lack confidence in government and vaccines, but still report that the right messages, information, and incentives will make them decide to get the vaccine.

Vaccination refusals are a different situation. They are unhappy with the direction of the world and of Canada.

Three-quarters (73%) of them think COVID-19 is a hoax or grossly exaggerated, while only 33% of hesitant buy this argument.

Two-thirds of them (69%) are not at all worried about contracting COVID-19 (only 27% of hesitant feel this). Two-thirds (65%) say that if they contracted COVID-19, they wouldn’t get really sick (only 40% of hesitant agree).

Forty percent of those who refuse do not trust the doctors, while only 17 percent of those who hesitate do. Most Canadians don’t trust Donald Trump or Fox News, but the more they trust, the more likely they are to avoid getting the vaccine. Among the completely vaxxed, 11% trust Fox and Trump, against 28% of the hesitant and 40% of the refusing.

There are some similarities among the hesitant and refusing groups. Over 85% of both groups hate the idea of ​​the government telling them how to live their lives. The hesitant and refusal are also likely to try to avoid prescriptions and vaccines, preferring to rely on their body’s natural defenses.

So where does that leave us?

Most people who refuse to be vaccinated are unlikely to be vaccinated unless not getting vaccinated becomes too costly or bothersome. If they weren’t afraid of sickness now, they weren’t. If they haven’t been convinced by peers or medical professionals yet, that probably won’t change. Only 6 percent say their doctor might change their mind, only 3 percent say a friend or family member might.

Most hesitant could be vaccinated at some point this year. For some, especially those with unique cultural group perspectives or health concerns, the diligent work done by public health agencies and vaccine awareness teams like This is Our Shot or 19 to Zero makes a difference. difference. Even though the pace seems slow to everyone, the work is essential, and it works.

Some of the hesitant will react to the rewards and sweepstakes, but others may need firmer, clearer, and persistent nudges to see not getting vaccinated as a limitation of the experiences they had. habit or to which vaccinated people can return. Staying unvaccinated comes at a cost, and perhaps a stigma, as those vaccinated see them as stowaways unwilling to do their part to protect the community, the economy – and Canada’s children for whom no vaccine is not yet offered.

I don’t encourage polarization; it already exists and the weight of the judgment of the majority will be felt among the 7%.

Vaccinating Canadians against COVID-19 has highlighted some of the most important distinctions between the United States and Canada in political culture. Most Canadians have trusted government to navigate their way through this pandemic, while America has reminded us of how deep and broad dislike for government involvement is in their culture.

Our media offered some weird takes, but nothing that resembled the role played by conservative radio talk, or Fox News and its similar style media platforms.

We have a party leader who is against masks and vaccines, but he is the one who failed to win a single seat anywhere in the country, including the seat he had held for years. America is blocked by politicians pushing through laws that encourage COVID-19 madness.

After immersing myself in this topic for almost a year and digesting more data on it than on any other topic in my nearly 40 years in the polling business, count me as an optimist, at the times on where we’re going to end up in terms of vaccination and our ability to (mainly) rally around.

It was not perfect, lives were lost that did not need to be lost, psychological stresses will last and millions of people have suffered economically. But if it helps compare with the alternatives, it could get worse in a lot of ways.

To those refusing, it seems to boil down to a deep lack of trust in government, doctors, vaccines, and the world’s leadership. For the hesitant, it is more about building confidence and in some cases pushing messages, prompts and infringements on the flexibility of life as an unvaxed person.

Bruce Anderson has been a distinguished Canadian pollster, communications advisor and political analyst for many years. Earlier in his career, he worked on election campaigns for Progressive Conservatives and Liberals, but no longer works for any political party now. For several years he was a regular member of the popular CBC At Issue panel and currently presents two podcasts, “Good Talk” with Peter Mansbridge and Chantal Hebert and “Smoke Mirrors and the Truth” every Wednesday on Peter’s The Bridge podcast. Mansbridge. He is president of Abacus Data and Summa Communications and partner of Spark Advocacy. He is co-chair of the Faster Together volunteer initiative which works with more than 270 organizations across the country to promote COVID vaccinations.