What we know and don’t know about the delta variant and COVID vaccines

“I think this reflects a combination of our recent local ‘surge’ in April, May and June, where we had a lot of cases … resulting in a lot of innate post-infection immunity and our overall higher vaccination rate than these states are experiencing widespread community transmission, “said Dr. Phillip Levy, assistant professor of emergency medicine, vice president of research and leader of the COVID-19 response team at Wayne State University.” Michigan, we have many communities where vaccination rates are 75% or higher, which gives me a sense of optimism that while we see epidemics in the future, the impact will be less and people will not suffer significant consequences. “

Petrie, however, believes Michigan could see outbreaks like the South when K-12 schools reopen this month and next, as many do not require masks to be worn.

“Michigan may be lagging behind some of the southern states because we have a relatively higher vaccination rate and school hasn’t started yet,” Petrie said. “However, Michigan is certainly at risk of seeing a high number of cases like in these southern states, especially with schools reopening in the fall.”

However, the recorded deaths are expected to be lower, Levy said.

“As we continue to see deaths across the United States from COVID-19, the case fatality rate is lower overall with this phase of the pandemic,” Levy said. “This is largely because the groups most at risk are very heavily immunized. So I don’t think we will see the dramatic surge in deaths that we witnessed in April 2020 here. We will continue to see people dying. of COVID-19, virtually all of them occur among the unvaccinated. “

Known: Children under 12 will be allowed the vaccine

The three experts stressed the importance of the US Food and Drug Administration’s approval of COVID vaccines for children under 12, who are not yet eligible to receive a vaccine.

The agency is expected to authorize a vaccine in the coming months, but a precise date is not yet known.

“There has been an urgent need to do some testing, which is needed to show safety. There is cautious optimism for the EUA (emergency use authorization) of the Pfizer vaccine for 5 to 11 year olds in the past. next few weeks, ”Levy said.

Moderna is also conducting large pediatric trials to study the effectiveness and safety of using its COVID-19 vaccine for children under 12. Johnson & Johnson reportedly plan to start a study of its vaccine in children as young as 12 in the fall.

“I hope that once this (EUA) happens, parents will see the importance of getting their children vaccinated. The path to eradication of SARS-CoV2 is much easier if this group is vaccinated.”

Chopra said the heist is the FDA’s request for four to six months of safety data for children instead of two months for adults. Almost all reactions and injuries from vaccines, not just the COVID-19 vaccine, occur within the first 45 days after administration.

Unknown: Will we need boosters forever?

The Biden administration authorized a third vaccine booster, available to all Americans starting September 20. Early research suggests that vaccine effectiveness begins to wane after six months, but there isn’t enough long-term data to know whether the boosters will be permanent.

“Confusion abounds, but people need to keep in mind that we’ve never been faced with a pandemic like this before and the science builds up as it goes,” Levy said. “The boosters will do two things: they will ‘recharge’ the production of antibodies, thus providing an immediate period of protection against infection, which will help reduce transmission, and strengthen your cellular (T cell) immune response, helping to protect against infection. ensure that once the antibodies clear away, you retain strong immunity to the virus. “

Petrie said mutations are a factor as well.

“Although the unvaccinated are still much more likely to be infected, we are seeing that infections among the vaccinated appear to be increasing,” Petrie said. “This could be because the virus is changing enough to evade immunity from the vaccine or because that immunity wanes over time. Both of these factors may be at play. Boosters could help keep immunity high, especially in the groups most at risk. “