Covid-19: New Zealand should target more than 90% vaccinated – epidemiologist Rod Jackson

New Zealand should aim to immunize 90 percent of the eligible population if society is to deal with the Delta variant, according to a leading epidemiologist.

People were waiting their turn at the vaccination center behind the wheel of the Trusts Arena last week.
Photo: RNZ / Nick Monro

Rod Jackson, professor of epidemiology at the University of Auckland, said Nine at noon coping with a rapidly spreading Delta variant required a maximum level of vaccination.

If the virus spread among essential workers, more restrictions would be needed, he said.

“If we find out in the next few days that this continues to happen then we will need to upgrade to something like level 4.5 and this will be especially important for essential workers.

“They’re all going to need to be vaccinated, they’re all going to have to wear N95 masks. They’re all going to have to put more effort into keeping this infection at bay.

“The one thing that’s certain about this whole pandemic is that if you keep infected people away from uninfected people, we’ll hit this over the head.”

Jackson said developing best practices with Delta is new territory for the world, and everyone is behind the game.

But New Zealand simply did not have enough vaccines and should look to bring more, he said.

Nearly 90,000 vaccines were administered as of Friday, the second-highest daily total to date.

Associate Minister of Health Ayesha Verrall said the government would try to find a way to keep vaccination rates at an increased rate, rather than the 50,000 to 60,000 per day that are viable under current supply agreements.

“We just don’t have enough vaccines, so we have to find a way around that, and you know one of the ways around that is to bring in more vaccines.”

In addition to the Pfizer vaccine, Medsafe has approved the AstraZeneca and Janssen vaccines.

“For those who want to get it now, I think we should seriously consider other vaccines.”

The best situation for health and the economy remained elimination, which simply meant that the virus was not currently spreading in the community.

“In New South Wales, that may not be possible anymore. It could have gotten out of hand, so…

The biggest threat in the short term is exponential spread, but in the longer term, modeling continues to determine how to handle the virus once the vaccine is available to everyone.

“Basically it’s like this, either you’re going to catch Covid or you’re getting vaccinated. If you get vaccinated, some people will still get Covid, but for a vaccinated person, Covid is like a bad flu. If you’re unvaccinated, it’s at least 20 times worse than the flu. It’s a different disease.

“The modeling from Australia – and I think it will probably be very similar in New Zealand – is that if you reach 90 percent of the eligible vaccinees, you could have 1,000 deaths.”

In addition to reducing the potential number of deaths, a vaccination rate above 90% would contribute to hospitalization rates.

People in intensive care with Covid-19 need more staff and resources, and would exclude a couple of other people who may need to be there, Jackson said.

“My call is that all New Zealanders and all commentators find innovative and constructive ways to help the hesitant get vaccinated.”

He clarified that the vast majority of people who had not yet been vaccinated or who had not made an appointment were not against the vaccines, but were hesitant.