COVID hospitalizations to peak next month, but forecasts show improvements

DALLAS – Hospital cases of COVID-19 patients are still expected to peak next month at levels near or above what North Texas saw in the outbreak last January. However, the new forecast shows some signs of improvement.

UT’s southwest COVID forecast expects the situation to get worse before it gets better.

Hospitalizations are on the rise in the North Texas area, but so are vaccinations and the use of masks. This could start to bring down the rate of COVID infection faster than expected.

UT Southwestern predicts that hospitalizations in North Texas are expected to continue to increase over the coming weeks.

“This whole wave is frankly due to two things: it is primarily the delta variant, and it primarily targets the unvaccinated,” said Stephen Love of the DFW Hospital Board.

At the current rate, forecasts predict that Dallas and Tarrant counties will see hospitalization cases in September reach levels higher than previous increase totals in January.

Instead of Dallas County expecting to reach 1,500 hospitalized COVID patients by mid-September, the projection is now 1,300 for a daily high.

In Tarrant County, the forecast peak was further reduced from 1900 to 1300.

UT Southwestern: COVID-19 hospitalizations expected to reach record pandemic level

The highly contagious delta variant is now responsible for 95% of new infections.

“It also has the ability to attach better to cells in your throat as well as your lungs, which is why so many people end up in hospital,” explained Dr. Trish Perl of UT Southwestern.

Parkland Hospital currently has 206 COVID patients. Eight are pregnant women in active labor.

“There are serious consequences for mother and baby during a COVID-19 infection,” said Dr Anthony Fauci, chief medical adviser to the president. “Therefore, it is important that pregnant women and those planning to become pregnant get vaccinated.”

The weekly admissions rate among younger age groups in North Texas has already passed January’s peaks.

Dr John Carlo is on the Texas Medical Association’s COVID-19 task force.

“It is possible that we will see these results manifest right now through this heightened awareness, and I certainly hope that will continue,” he said. “Because what’s going on in our hospital systems right now is a very, very busy situation, and we don’t want to see her get any busier.”

Currently, our 19-county area has more than 3,400 COVID patients in North Texas hospitals.

As of Tuesday, 95 pediatric confirmed COVID patients were hospitalized. This is the highest total for this group since the start of the pandemic, associated with the premature spread of a different respiratory virus.

“We are also simultaneously facing an RSV epidemic right now, which is typical for this, leading to a greater occupancy of these pediatric hospital beds,” said CDC director Dr. Rochelle Walensky. .

UT Southwestern’s report includes some encouraging trends.

In Dallas County, where self-reported masking in public is at 80%, new hospitalizations remain stable. There has also been a decrease in test positivity rates.

The report found that due to rising masking and vaccination rates, hospitalization rates are not increasing as quickly as expected. He added that once hospitalizations peak, they may start to decline more quickly.

“What this means is it’s going in the right direction,” Love said.

As the vaccination rate has increased and the positivity rate is dropping, Labor Day could derail some of that progress.

“I hope this Labor Day holiday weekend we are all doing our part,” Dr. Carlo said. “We really have to make sure that we are aware of our surroundings.”

Dr Perl wants to remind people that when you get the vaccine it takes 10 weeks to get a full immune response. That’s why she says it’s important to always wear a mask with the highly contagious delta variant that is still circulating.