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Lifting containment restrictions two-stage NSW could overwhelm intensive care units for up to five weeks over the Christmas period, according to modeling from a new expert advisory group.
Easing restrictions when 70% of adults in NSW are fully immunized and further easing the rules to 80% would lead to a ‘worst case scenario’, suggests OzSage, a recently formed advisory group of experts in epidemiology, health and economics.
The modeling also suggests that waiting for an 80% vaccination rate – estimated to occur in November – to relax the restrictions would lead to more infections, deaths, and peak daily intensive care beds than if the restrictions were relaxed to 70%. It predicts 689 deaths in New South Wales by February 1 if restrictions are relaxed to 70%, compared to 1,004 deaths at 80%.
The finding is in contradiction with separate modeling researchers at three universities, who suggested last month that reopening at an 80% vaccination rate for adults would result in 4,000 fewer deaths in Australia than reopening at 70%.
Modeling from the Doherty Institute, which forms the basis of the national cabinet’s four-step reopening plan, suggests that while Australia is opening up to 80% with partial public health measures such as contact tracing and quarantine, there would be 761 deaths nationwide in first six months after reopening, against 1,457 deaths at 70%.
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Experts from the Grattan Institute, meanwhile, “do not support openness” until 80% of the total population of Australia is vaccinated, requiring a higher vaccination rate in adults.
OzSage has over 80 members, including Professor Brendan Crabb, Director of the Burnet Institute, Professor Brian Schmidt, Vice-Chancellor of the Australian National University, and Professor Nancy Baxter, Head of the School of Population and Global Health from the University of Melbourne. .
He developed independently recommendations for reopening Australia.
The group is advocating for the elimination of Covid in Australia, without sustained community transmission and only occasional outbreaks – an approach that other scientists say is is no longer possible, especially in the light of more transmissible variants like Delta.
Fully vaccinated people in NSW will have greater freedoms in October when the state reaches 70% double-dose vaccination, as per the government directive. reopening roadmap released last week.
Presenting the OzSage modeling at a press briefing, Professor Raina MacIntyre, head of the biosafety research program at the Kirby Institute at the University of NSW, said that a two-stage reopening would lead to an extended scenario of “Code black,” where the demand for intensive care beds across the state for Covid and non-Covid patients exceeds 926 patients per day.
“This is the worst case scenario. This gives you five weeks of code black from December 9 to January 15, ”she said. In this scenario, the model predicts that the total number of ICU patients would peak at 1,192 on December 26, with 1,169 Covid deaths by February 1 of next year.
According to Modeling of the government of New South Wales undertaken by the Burnet Institute, which ignores the 70% easing restrictions, hospitalizations in the state are expected to peak in October.
MacIntyre said: “When the restrictions are relaxed there will be a second larger spike which could, depending on how it is managed, threaten the delivery of health care.”
Dr Greg Kelly, intensive care specialist at Westmead Children’s Hospital and member of OzSage, said there was “no doubt” that the quality of health care in NSW was already substandard because of Covid.
“Young people should not die at home without prompt medical attention,” he said. “We don’t already do a lot of the things we’re supposed to do: major scheduled surgeries, like cancer and heart surgeries… As the system becomes more overloaded, the quality of care we provide is improving. improving more and more. more degraded.
Professor James McCaw, who is in the Doherty Institute modeling group and not involved in OzSage, agrees that if there were too much relaxation of measures, the virus would spread quickly and put the health care system under “Harmful and preventable strain”.
“In line with Doherty’s modeling work, it supports a continuous adaptive response that aims to minimize escalation of cases and hospitalizations. “
OzSage suggests the best case scenario is a single easing of restrictions in NSW to 70%, with more extensive testing and a quick contact tracing.
One assumption in the modeling is that there would be more freedom of movement if the restrictions were relaxed to 80% from 70%.
Professor Catherine Bennett, who holds a chair in epidemiology at Deakin University and is not involved in OzSage, said modeling the effect of lifting the lockdown was made difficult by the various restrictions across New South Wales.
“Not everyone reacts the same to easing restrictions,” she said.
OzSage also recommended maintaining restrictions in New South Wales until at least 85%, and preferably more than 90%, of the state’s Aborigines and Torres Strait Islanders are fully vaccinated.
Dr Kalinda Griffiths, of the UNSW Big Data Research Center, said: “Aboriginal people and Torres Strait Islanders have a younger age distribution. We also have higher rates of underlying conditions that can impact the severity of illness caused by Covid. “
More than 1,500 Indigenous people had contracted Covid since the start of the current outbreak in NSW, she said.
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