COVID data for Thursday, Sept. 30: Cases on 3-month climb in Michigan while most states see decreases

It is not hard to count the number of counties at the highest risk level, based on new COVID-19 cases per capita in the last week. The state map is monochromatic; it’s all red.

Only Charlevoix County had fewer than 150 cases per day per 1 million people on average in the past seven days.

Case rates in Michigan have been rising for three months, since the low on June 26. When compared to other states, Michigan ranks eighth with a 13% increase in daily cases per 100,000 people in the last 14 days, according to data collected by the New York Times. Only 11 other states were seeing increases.

Young people are presently most affected. Each day, nearly 370 children younger than 12 become infected with COVID-19, 50 more children per day than last week, according to the, state’s latest COVID Response Data and Modeling Update. Since Sept. 1, total cases among children 0-9 increased by 16%. Cases in people 10-19 increased 11%. For the remaining age groups, the percentage was 5-8%.

Children and younger, healthy people are less likely to get severe COVID-19 illness and, chances are, they will not die or require hospitalization. The daily average of hospitalized children in Michigan is about 25 and since Sept. 1, three people under 20 have died; all of them were 10 or older, according to data presented on the state coronavirus dashboard.

Hospitalizations and deaths also are on the rise. About 3.9% of emergency department visits were for COVID-19, according to the modeling update, dated Tuesday, Sept. 28. This was up from 3.5%. Over the past week, those 60-69 years saw the highest number of avg. daily hospital admissions, 38.

Health officials continue to mention the delta variant when asked about rises in cases. The highly contagious strain has been identified in 3,492 cases in 81 counties, and accounts for 99.8% of specimens analyzed in the last four weeks. Every county except Lake and Osceola counties, between Grand Rapids and Traverse City, have had a confirmed case of the delta variant. It is important to note: routine testing for SARS-CoV-2 does not identify variants, but a small number of specimens undergo additional examination, genomic sequencing in labs to determine the variant. This takes time and numbers lag real-world spread.

Below is a closer look at the latest state and county coronavirus data, according to the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Vaccinations: 67.7% of people 16 and older have received at least one dose

This CDC-measured mark is what state leaders have used to gauge success of the COVID-19 vaccination effort. The goal has been 70%. As of Wednesday, Sept. 29, Michigan had about 5.5 million residents 16 and older who had received at least one dose.

Of the eligible population, people 12 and older, the state has reached 62.2% at least partially vaccinated, and 57.7% fully inoculated.

By total population, Michigan ranks 34th among U.S. states with 57% at least partially vaccinated. Vermont is at the top with 78% and Idaho is at the bottom with 47%.

The least vaccinated group in Michigan is children 12-15. The percentage of this population who have initiated the vaccine series just reached 40%, meaning all age groups now have an immunization rate 40% or higher.

Children 120-15 have been eligible for a shorter period, only since May, but the numbers have not steadily climbed like they did for older populations early in the roll-out. Younger people are less at risk of severe disease or death. Their parents also have to consent to immunization, and many remain resistant, hesitant or unconcerned.

Among people 50-64, more than 70% have now received one or more doses, bringing the three oldest age groups to 70% or more vaccinated.

From Aug. 29 to Sept. 25, about 124,000 people received an initial dose of the vaccines. This amounted to a 2.4% increase in the total number of at least partially immunized people in Michigan.

Below is a breakdown by age group of Michigan residents who have gotten one or more shots and those who are fully immunized as of Tuesday, Sept. 28.

• 75 and older: 80.7% initiated; 76.6% completed.
• 65 to 74: 84.1% initiated; 80.4% completed.
• 50 to 64: 70.2% initiated; 66.0% completed.
• 40 to 49: 59.5% initiated; 54.8% completed.
• 30 to 39: 55.8% initiated; 50.6% completed.
• 20 to 29: 45.6% initiated; 40.6% completed.
• 16 to 19: 47.7% initiated; 42.8% completed.
• 12 to 15: 40.0% initiated; 35.5% completed.

The interactive map below shows the number of who have people 12 and older who have received as least one dose of vaccine so far. The numbers are based on residence of the vaccine recipient vs. where the the vaccine was given.

You can hold your cursor over a county to see the underlying data, which includes a breakdown by four age groups: Those 65 and older; ages 64 to 50; ages 49 to 20, and under 20. It includes numbers on vaccines initiated and completed.

Cannot see the map? Click here.

Five counties have reached the state’s 70% partial vaccination goal, led by Leelanau at 80.3%. The others: Oakland (73.2%), Grand Traverse (72.7%), Washtenaw (72.8%), and Emmet (71.7%).

Wayne County, minus Detroit, is at 70.6%. However, The state looks at Detroit, which has its own health department, separately. When combined, the rate in Wayne County is about 61%.

Meanwhile, 16 counties remain below 50%, with Cass reporting a state-worst 40.8%. Others at the bottom of the list include Hillsdale (42.6%) in southern Michigan; Osceola (45.3%), Mecosta (45.7%) in central Michigan, and Luce (46.8%) in the U.P.

Below is a chart that ranks counties from most vaccinated to least vaccinated. Cannot see it? Click here.

Many now eligible for booster shots

About 103,800 people have now received a third dose of either the Moderna or Pfizer vaccines. This is way up from last week, when about 68,200 people had received a booster. The CDC broadened last week the criteria for booster shots, previously available only to people with compromised immune systems.

Third doses of the Pfizer vaccine are now endorsed for people older than 65, long-term care facility residents, people 18-64 with underlying medical conditions and people whose occupations or work settings pose a risk.

New cases: The state is averaging 2,941 new confirmed cases a day

This number is up – 9% – from 2,697 a week ago. It marks a 53% increase from from Sept. 1. (This average is calculated based on the day the state reports cases, not on the onset of symptoms.)

Case numbers continue to move upward, week after week. Since the low point in June, the seven day average has increased about 2,600%.

Michigan now ranks 29th of U.S. states based on new cases per 100,000 residents in the last seven days. Since Sept. 8, it moved up 19 spots. Alaska leads with 171 cases per 100,000 people in the last week. Connecticut looks best with 14.

Case rate trends were highest for residents 10-19-year-olds followed by those 30-39, 20-29, 40-49, and 0-9, according to the Tuesday modeling update.

Can’t see the chart below? Click here.

Of Michigan’s 83 counties, 37 reported an increase in weekly COVID-19 cases per 1 million residents for the week of Sept. 23 to Wednesday, Sept. 29. One, Alger County in the Upper Peninsula, saw no change. The highest per capita case rates in the state belong to sparsely populated Keweenaw County in the U.P., Dickinson County, also in the U.P., Iosco County in northeast Michigan, Menominee County in the U.P. and Isabella County in central Michigan. (In communities with low populations, small numbers can make a big difference.)

Four counties — Montmorency County in northern Michigan, Schoolcraft and Keweenaw counties in the U.P. and Oscoda County in the northeast — saw week-over-week increases of 100% or more. Manistee County on Lake Michigan saw the greatest week-over-week percent decrease, 61%.

Below is an online database that allows readers to see the number of new coronavirus cases in the past seven days compared to the previous week, as well as the per capita number that adjusts for population. The arrows indicate whether the total number of new cases reported in the last seven days has gone up or down compared to the previous seven days.

Can’t see the database above? Click here.

The map below is shaded by the state’s six risk-assessment levels. This is based on new cases reported per day per million people for the week of Sept. 23 through Wednesday, Sept. 29

A total of 82 counties are at the highest risk level, this is up from 60 early in the month. Only Charlevoix County in northern Michigan is at the next highest level and just barely, with 148 new, reported cases per day per 1 million people over the last week.

The arrows on the map indicate whether the total number of new cases reported in the last seven days has gone up or down compared to the previous week. Readers can put their cursor over a county to see the underlying data. (Hint: You can drag the map with your cursor to see the entire Upper Peninsula.)

Cannot see the map? Click here.

Positivity rate: The seven-day average was about 9%

The percent of tests coming back positive has remained steady, about 9%, in recent weeks.

Of the 40,345 diagnostic tests processed on Tuesday, Sept. 28, 9.5% came back positive for SARS-CoV-2. This brought the seven-day average to about 9%, up a bit from a week ago, when on average, 8.8% were positive.

Hillsdale County on the southern border had the highest percent positivity per day in the last week with 22.9%. In Ogemaw and Iosco counties in northeast Michigan and Osceola County in central Michigan, more than 20% of tests also were positive.

Early in the coronavirus pandemic, the World Health Organization recommended community closures if test rates surpassed 5%, indicating that viral spread was too high and/or not enough testing was being done to accurately gauge transmission. All but one county, Washtenaw, and Detroit were below 5%. Gogebic County in the U.P. was at 5.8%.

The chart below allows you to look up any county by name to see the seven-day average positivity rate. The chart compares the average from the past seven days to the average for the previous week. This chart has not been updated since last week because of the state issue with the testing data.

Can’t see the database? Click here.

The interactive map below shows the seven-day average testing rate by county. You can put your cursor over a county to see the underlying data.

Can’t see the map above? Click here.

Hospitalizations: 1,415 inpatients

As of Wednesday, hospitals statewide were treating 1,711 patients patients with confirmed or suspected cases of COVID-19, with 436 patients in the ICU. Of those hospitalized, 40 are children and 199 are on ventilators. The numbers are up from a week ago, when there were 1,578 patients in the hospital and 415 in the ICU.

This marks a 36% increase since the beginning of the month.

As of Sept. 1, there were 1,258 patients, including 20 children, hospitalized. About 340 people were in intensive care units and 162 were on ventilators.

For context, the state surpassed 3,900 hospitalizations at the peak of all three prior surges, while the low points of the pandemic have been around 300 patients at a time.

Deaths: The state is averaging 31 deaths a day

Michigan’s seven-day average of reported COVID-19 deaths increased about 19% this week. It was 26 a week ago and 31 as of Wednesday. It is the highest it has been since June 10, when the average was 30. (This is based on the day they are reported by the state, not the date of death.)

There were more than 680 deaths reported since Sept. 1. Of them, 26 were among people younger than 40 and 57 were under 50. Slightly more than 220 were 50-69. Almost 190 were 70-79. Most, 215, were 80 or older. Three were 10-19 and six were in their 20s.

The disease has resulted in 20,998 confirmed deaths in Michigan. Additionally, the state has reported 1,357 probable deaths, in which a physician and/or antigen test ruled it COVID-19 but no confirmatory PCR test, which detects the presence of a virus, was done.

Below is a chart illustrating the seven-day average for reported deaths throughout the pandemic. Can’t see the chart below? Click here.

State’s overall risk assessment: All regions reach highest risk level

All of the state is purple. This is unchanged since last week. At the start of the month, three regions were at the second-highest risk leve.

The six-level scale ranks the eight regions from “low” to levels A through E.

In assigning the risk scores, Michigan Department of Health and Human Services looks at factors such as new cases and deaths, test positivity rates, and patients hospitalized with COVID-19.

Can’t see the above map? Click here.

For more statewide data, visit MLive’s coronavirus data page.

To find a testing site near you, check out the state’s online test find send an email to [email protected], or call 888-535-6136 between 8 a.m. and 5 p.m. on weekdays.

Read more on MLive:

Every Michigan county is now considered high risk for coronavirus transmission

Doctors urge pregnant women to be vaccinated against COVID-19

Pfizer submits data to FDA regarding vaccinating children 5 to 11 against COVID-19

614 infected across 106 new COVID outbreaks at Michigan schools, per Sept. 27 report

Health officials call for school mask mandate in Michigan amidst ‘protest mobs,’ bullying

Researchers estimate combined vaccination, natural immunity rate