Claims by anti-vaxx groups on Covid deaths among vaccinees are misleading

THE COVID SITUATION IN IRELAND has deteriorated somewhat in recent weeks, with concerns from public health officials over the impact of the virus putting the brakes on what would have been the lifting of all remaining restrictions on Friday.

Despite the successful deployment of the vaccine during the year, the country has seen a notable increase in the number of hospitalizations, intensive care admissions and deaths from Covid-19 since the end of the summer.

Health officials aren’t the only people worried about these numbers, however.

The noticeable increase in ICU admissions and deaths from Covid-19 has led to various claims from anti-vaccine groups on social media seeking to undermine vaccine use.

In recent weeks, these groups have relied on data released weekly by the Health Protection Surveillance Center (HPSC) to claim that the number of deaths from Covid-19 since April has been higher among those vaccinated than among those without. vaccinated.

This has led to claims that vaccines don’t work, unvaccinated people don’t put pressure on health services, and Ireland is only pushing vaccine use because of the government’s ties to Big Pharma.

Neither statement is true, and the statements that rely on the HPSC data lack important context, namely the definition of a “vaccinated” person.

Vaccines still prevent much higher levels of serious illness and death than currently in Ireland, and unvaccinated people with Covid-19 still account for a higher proportion of deaths than fully vaccinated people.

HPSC data

The HPSC released its latest report on Covid-19 deaths on Friday – you can read it here.

It found that between April 1 and October 16 of this year, there were 402 deaths in Ireland of people who had had a confirmed case of Covid-19 and who were notified to HPSC as having died from the disease. . Among these :

• 42% of people (or 155 deaths) were among those who died 14 days or more after receiving all recommended doses of a vaccine.
• 55.7% of people (or 224 deaths) were among those who received at least one dose of a vaccine;
• 44.3% of people (or 178 deaths) were among those who had not been vaccinated or had not been recorded as vaccinated in the Irish Covid-19 vaccination system.

(Note: these percentages add up to over 100 because people in the first group – fully vaccinated people – are also contained in the third group).

It should be noted here that the number of Covid-19 deaths since April remains the lowest in the category of fully vaccinated people, that is, those who have died more than two weeks after receiving all doses of the vaccine given to them.

An individual is not considered vaccinated against Covid-19 until after this point; until then, the vaccine does not give them the most complete protection possible against the virus and they are at greater risk of serious illness and death.

But despite this statistic, vaccine skeptics and anti-containment groups have nonetheless suggested that the HSPC’s own data undermines the goals of the vaccination program.

They point to trends from the health monitoring center – which releases its figures every week – to imply that vaccines no longer work because a higher proportion of partially or fully vaccinated people have died with Covid-19 in recent weeks.

In contrast, data from the HSPC shows that the number of deaths among unvaccinated people as a percentage of the overall total has gradually declined.

Between April and September 11th, 59.4% of deaths (149 out of 251) occurred in people who were not recorded as having been vaccinated; this compares to 44.3% of deaths (178 out of 402) during the period April to October 16.

At the same time, the number of deaths among people who received at least one dose of a vaccine increased over the same period, from 40.6% (102 out of 251 deaths) until September 11 to 55.7% (224 deaths out of 402) until October 16.

Likewise, the percentage of fully vaccinated people who died from Covid-19 nearly doubled, from 24.3% of deaths (61 out of 251) through September 11 to 43.3% of deaths (174 out of 402) through to October 16.

In other words, between September 11 and October 16, only 29 unvaccinated people died from Covid-19 compared to 149 people who received at least one dose (including 113 people fully vaccinated).

Deaths occur in people who have been vaccinated due to so-called “rupture” cases, which we have previously explained. here.

The main goal of Covid-19 vaccines is to prevent Covid-19 from making people seriously ill or dying – but the sad reality is that this won’t always be the case, because vaccines aren’t 100% effective to prevent the spread of the virus.

In most cases, vaccines will prevent serious illness and death, but sometimes some deaths do occur.

Additional data

Earlier this week, The newspaper asked members of the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) to explain why more vaccinated people die from Covid-19 than those who are not.

Speaking at the first NPHET press briefing in more than two months, Professor Philip Nolan noted that Covid-19 vaccines do not fully reduce the risk of death from the virus, especially among older populations.

“The situation is that the vast majority of people – in fact, almost 100% of people – who are at risk of dying from this virus have been vaccinated,” he explained.

“And what that means then is [that] vaccination greatly reduces the risk of dying from this virus, but it does not eliminate the risk.

“This unfortunately means that with very high levels of the virus circulating, some older people will be infected and very few of those people will die.”

HPSC data on deaths due to Covid-19 – including the age profile – also describes the impact of the virus on the elderly since September.

It shows how the median ages of new Covid-19 deaths in each of the six weeks between September 8 and October 19 (roughly the period covered by vaccination data) were 81, 74, 79, respectively, 79, 85 and 76.

Similar data from the Central Bureau of Statistics (CSO), which also publishes information on Covid-19, shows that there were 156 deaths recorded between September 11 and October 19.

Of those deaths, 136 were in people over the age of 65, including 81 over the age of 80 (in fact, no ages were given for eight of the remaining 12 deaths).

Although the vaccination status of these people is not known, the figures show how affected those over 65 are by Covid-19, although almost all people over 60 in Ireland are fully vaccinated.

But that doesn’t mean the vaccine doesn’t work – in fact, the situation would likely be much worse without the vaccine, as Nolan explained in more detail this week.

“On a simple calculation, it is likely that vaccination – in terms of additional protection against infection – has prevented at least 1,700 deaths between June and now,” he said.

And if you add the fact that it also protects huge numbers of people from infection, it has actually prevented a huge number of deaths.

There is no way to indicate all the deaths that does not have occur in older people as a result of vaccine deployment: numbers that do not exist simply cannot be given.

Impact of unvaccinated

However, it can be highlighted how deaths from Covid-19 are more likely to occur among unvaccinated people.

Following Nolan’s comments this week, Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan explained that although more people who have been vaccinated are dying from the virus, deaths among the unvaccinated population far exceeded those per capita.

“It is important to say that while the majority of reported deaths could be in people who have been vaccinated, the proportion of those deaths that are not vaccinated is much higher than in the general population,” he said.

Recent figures cited by public health officials put the total number of unvaccinated people in Ireland (i.e. people over the age of 12 eligible for a vaccine) at around 300,000.

This translates to 1 death per 1,685 people among those unvaccinated in Ireland since April, or 1 death per 10,344 people since September 11 (date of the first report on deaths from the HPSC vaccine).

Official figures also show that 3.8 million people in Ireland have received at least one dose of a vaccine (as of October 18).

That translates to 1 death per 16,964 people since April, or 1 death per 25,503 people since September 11 – lower per capita rates than the unvaccinated population.

The disproportionate impact of unvaccinated people on health services not only results in deaths, but can also be observed in HPSC Intensive Care Admissions Data, the critical part of the health service approaching capacity.

Between April 1 and October 16, 68% of the 438 people admitted to intensive care were not vaccinated – including 59% of the 137 intensive care admissions since September 11.

While it is inevitable that cases of Covid-19 will continue to emerge, and although they can cause serious illness, they are much less likely to do so among the vaccinated population.

The majority of the pressure on health services due to Covid-19 continues to be caused by those who have not been fully immunized.