How worried should you be?

Slightly mutated version of the delta coronavirus variant, which some observers have dubbed ‘delta plus’, is gaining prominence in the UK, but several infectious disease experts suggest it is unlikely to lead to outbreaks of cases as severe as those associated with the original delta variant.

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This is not the first so-called ‘delta plus’

According to NPR, since the original delta variant was first identified last year in India, it has continued to evolve and mutate, and public health experts and the media have unofficially called several sub-variants ” delta plus ”. For example, in June, a notable “delta plus” a subvariant with a spike protein mutation has been identified in India.

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This latest delta plus sub-variant, more officially known as AY.4.2, was first identified by British scientists last month, PA / Modern health reports, and has two mutations on its spike protein. It has been found in 27 countries, including the United States, Canada, and Australia, and parts of Western Europe.

However, the data from the GISAID The virus notification database indicates that AY.4.2 only became important in the UK. As of October 18, around 14,247 of the 14,970 delta plus cases that have been sequenced worldwide were from the UK, News week reports.

According to British officials, the AY.4.2 variant currently accounts for 6% of all Covid-19 cases analyzed in the country and is “on an increasing trajectory”. In addition, the first evidence of the UK Health Safety Agency suggests that its growth rate may be higher than that of the original delta variant.

According to News week, AY.4.2 is currently not considered a variant of interest or concern by the UK, World Health Organization, Where CDC, although the UK referred to it as a “variant under investigation”.

Should people be worried about AY.4.2?

Several health experts have said that while it’s too early to say for sure, AY.4.2 is unlikely to be much more transmissible than the original delta variant, NPR reports.

William Hanage, epidemiologist at Harvard University, estimates that the AY.4.2 variant is about 10% more transmissible than the original delta variant. However, according to NPR, because the delta variant is already highly transmissible, this increased transmissibility is unlikely to make much of a difference.

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“[T]This is not a situation comparable to the emergence of alpha and delta which were much more transmissible – 50% or more – than any strain in circulation at the time, ”said François Balloux. , director of the Institute of genetics To University College London. “Here we are dealing with a small potential increase in transmissibility that would not have a comparable impact on the pandemic.”

For this reason, some health experts have said that the AY.4.2 variant is unlikely to cause an increase in Covid-19 cases in the United States like the original delta variant did over the summer. , reports NPR.

“There is no clear sign that this is going to take off like the delta did,” said Jeremy Luban, virologist at the University of Massachusetts School of Medicine. “I think if you ask the people who follow these variations, most of them will tell you that AY.4.2 is unlikely to be a new delta. It is unlikely that it will fully take over. It’s more likely to be a slow, creeping increase in cases. “

And Jeremy Lessler, epidemiologist at University of North Carolina, who developed models for the Covid-19 Scenario Modeling Center, said: “Even with a variant that is much more transmissible than delta-plus, the cases [in the simulated models] didn’t go back to the types of peaks we saw last winter or even the types of peaks we saw in the delta wave. “

Separately, old FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb said the latest delta plus variant was not contagious enough to affect the current trajectory of the pandemic in the United States.

“I don’t think that’s enough to really change the course of the direction we’re heading,” said Gottlieb. “We’re much closer to the end of this delta wave than we are to the beginning.” He added that the Covid-19 vaccines are expected to protect against the AY.4.2 variant and that it is unlikely to spread as widely as the original delta variant.

According to News week, there have currently only been three reported cases of the AY.4.2 variant in the United States. However, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said the agency “is monitoring the genomic sequencing of this [AY.4.2 variant] very carefully ”, especially as variant cases continue to increase in the UK (Browne, News week, 19/10 [1]; Browne, News week, 19/10 [2]; PA / Modern health, 10/22; AP / US News and Global Report, 10/22; Doucleff, NPR, 10/22; Vakil, The hill, 24/10; Golgowski, Huffington Post, 10/24)