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Kern Public Health Services recommends that all eligible residents receive a booster to avoid another outbreak of COVID-19 that could exceed the most recent peak that has strained local hospitals.
Recent modeling from the state’s COVID-19 Assessment Tool (CalCAT) indicates that a winter flare is a real possibility, and that declining COVID-19 immunity is a primary factor, according to a press release issued Wednesday by Kern Public Health.
Some populations see a slight decrease in the effectiveness of the vaccine against infection. These populations need a boost, according to county public health spokesperson Michelle Corson.
The worst case in Kern County shows an increase starting in early December and peaking on January 14 with an average of 748 new cases per day. This same model shows that hospitalizations would peak at 559 on January 20. It also shows that deaths from COVID-19 would climb to 2,297 on March 1. As of Wednesday, Kern County had 1,694 deaths from COVID-19.
By comparison, in this most recent outbreak, Kern peaked at an average of 411 cases per day with 336 hospitalizations. Corson noted that the county has tended to follow pessimistic state-issued modeling.
The fate of the county is not fixed. State modeling shows that boosters can make a difference by flattening the curve.
The most optimistic model shows that Kern County has completely triggered a surge, allowing daily case rates to gradually decline. A strong recall response would allow case rates to drop to 25 per day by mid-January. The death toll by March is expected to be 407 less than in the worst-case scenario.
A model in the middle where boosters balance waning immunity demonstrates a scenario where there is a much smaller increase than the worst-case scenario, peaking at 88 new cases per day. There would be 74 fewer deaths by March.
Modeling has been a valuable tool that helps consolidate local resources for public health, emergency medical response and hospital systems during power surges, Corson said.
“This is not to scare us but to make us aware,” said Jay Tamsi, co-founder of the Kern County Latino COVID-19 Task Force.
The working group worked to educate the community on the importance of booster shots, while administering the first and second doses in their immunization clinics. Tamsi said a reminder is especially important for those who want to stay safe during the next vacation.
“It’s all the more important to have one so that you can be with your parents, grandparents,” Tamsi said.
In a statement, Corson said: “The determining factor in how Kern will progress in modeling are the actions our community takes to ensure optimal immunity against this disease, which includes vaccinating and then getting your dose of. callback when you are eligible. “
All COVID-19 vaccines – even without a booster – continue to offer significant protection against serious illness, hospitalization and death. In Kern County, 96.15% of people hospitalized with COVID-19 were not vaccinated.
However, the CDC recommends that certain populations get a booster to ensure optimal immunity. This is not uncommon for vaccines, Corson noted. They are part of most series of vaccines for children and adults that ensure that a person maintains their immunity to infection.
A booster dose of Pfizer of Moderna vaccine is recommended six months after the second dose for people 65 years of age or older.
It is also recommended for adults who work or live in high-risk settings, such as qualified nursing residents, healthcare personnel, first responders, grocery store staff, manufacturing workers, corrections, school staff and agricultural workers.
It also recommends boosters for adults who are at increased risk due to social inequalities or who have underlying health issues including pregnancy, diabetes, heart problems, obesity, mental health, smoking. and substance use disorders.
A booster dose of Johnson & Johnson vaccine is recommended two months after the initial dose for people 18 years of age or older.
Daniel Wolcott, president of Adventist Health Kern County, noted that his local hospitals were seeing a decrease in the number of COVID-19 cases, but he urged continued vigilance.
“We want people to get vaccinated if they are able to,” Wolcott said in a statement. “With the holidays just around the corner, we want to make sure everyone stays safe, to avoid having an impact on our hospitals again.”
Corson also recommends that those who are not vaccinated to wear a mask. She said washing hands, staying home when sick and maintaining a healthy diet remain essential in the ongoing fight against COVID-19.
To find a vaccination site near you or to make an appointment at vaccination sites, visit www.kernpublichealth.com Where www.MyTurn.ca.gov. Kern County Public Health operates a COVID-19 vaccination clinic at Kern County Fairgrounds, Tuesday through Friday, 10:30 a.m. to 6 p.m.
You can reach Emma Gallegos at 661-395-7394.
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