COVID hospitalizations soar, raising specter of LA’s winter wave

LOS ANGELES, CA – COVID-19 hospitalizations are on the rise in Los Angeles County and health officials are urging people this week to get or get vaccinated before the holidays.

For millions of people vaccinated from late 2020 to spring, their immunity could wane, warned Dr. Mark Ghaly, California’s Secretary of Health and Human Services. He urged people to get their recalls as health officials prepare for a possible winter surge.

Unvaccinated residents are still much more likely to become seriously ill or die if infected. There are still millions of people in Los Angeles County who have not been vaccinated, raising the specter of another winter wave, if not as catastrophic as last year.
“I don’t think we’ll have the same huge spike we had last winter, but I think we’ll see another spike,” said Dr. Timothy Brewer, an infectious disease expert at the University of California at Los Angeles. the New York Times. “And the big difference will be because of the large number of people vaccinated.”

According to state figures, there were 632 COVID-positive patients in county hospitals on Monday, up from 600 on Sunday. Among those hospitalized, 156 were treated in intensive care, against 163 the day before.
The average daily rate of people testing positive for the virus in the county was 1% on Monday. The seven-day cumulative case rate in the county, as estimated by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, rose last week to 98 cases per 100,000 population. That number was in the mid-1970s two weeks ago.

At 98 cases per 100,000 population, the county is on the verge of being demoted from the CDC’s “substantial” transmission category to the “widespread” category.

“Our weekly case rate is 98 new cases per 100,000 population, reflecting high and continuing borderline transmission throughout the county,” County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said on Monday in a report. communicated. “Unfortunately, increased transmission among unvaccinated people will also affect those vaccinated – which is why additional protections such as masking remain so important. Getting vaccinated, receiving reminders and masking indoors and in spaces crowded outdoors remains essential as we face the real possibility of a winter surge. “

County health officials said last week, and reiterated Monday, that unvaccinated residents are now seven times more likely to be infected with COVID than their vaccinated counterparts, and 44 times more likely to be hospitalized. The risk of death is 60 times higher in unvaccinated people, according to the county.

Another 10 deaths from COVID-19 have been reported by the county public health department, giving the county a total death toll from the virus of 26,872. Meanwhile, 824 new infections have been reported, a number typically low for a Monday due to delays in reporting weekend test results. The new cases gave the county a running total throughout the pandemic of 1,512,147.

Of the more than 5.9 million fully vaccinated people in the county, 72,163 have subsequently tested positive, for a rate of 1.22%, according to the county. A total of 2,424 vaccinated people were hospitalized, for a rate of 0.041%, and 396 died, or a rate of 0.007%.

As of last week, 81% of county residents aged 12 and older have received at least one dose of the COVID vaccine, and 73% are fully immunized. Of the county’s 10.3 million people, 70% have received at least one dose and 63% are fully immunized.

City News Service and Patch Staffer Paige Austin contributed to this report.