Covid 19 Omicron: mysteries of new variant could take weeks to unravel

A world tired by the pandemic faces weeks of puzzling uncertainty as countries restrict travel and take other steps to stop the last potentially risky coronavirus mutant before anyone knows how dangerous Omicron truly is.

Will it spread even faster than the already extra-contagious Delta variant of the Covid-19 virus? Does it make people sicker? Does it avoid vaccine protection or re-infect survivors? There are a lot of guesses but little hard evidence as scientists rush to find answers amid scrutiny from an anxious public.

“About the right level of panic,” is how Trevor Bedford, who studies the evolution of the coronavirus at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, characterized the reactions of health experts.

Omicron might not turn out “as bad as we might imagine, but treating it as such for the time being seems entirely appropriate to me,” the US scientist said.

So far, the world has been slow to respond to every curve of coronavirus. This time, an early warning from South Africa and Botswana could have offered a significant head start.

“It’s hard to know: have we just become aware of the reality and now the world is reacting at the appropriate speed as variants emerge? Asked Dr. Jacob Lemieux, who is monitoring variants for a research collaboration led by Harvard Medical School.

Why the worry?

Omicron has sounded the alarm because of its large number of mutations, more than previous variants. Perhaps 30 are in a key location, the spike protein that allows the virus to attach to human cells.

Scientists recognize a few mutations from earlier variants that were more contagious or somewhat resistant to vaccination. But they have never seen this particular constellation of changes.

Most “are really unique to this virus,” said Dr William Moss of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. “It’s this combination of the potential increase in transmissibility and the ability – the potential ability – to evade our immune system that everyone worries about.

“It’s a balance,” Moss said. “We want to take this seriously because of the combination of mutations, but we don’t want to panic nor do we want to overreact until we really know more about this virus.”

Scrambling for responses

Scientists still have little data on whether Omicron causes more serious disease than other variants. And although he has already been diagnosed in many countries just days after his discovery was announced, it is also too early to know how contagious he is.

The Alpha variant that appeared about a year ago was more transmissible than the virus that started the pandemic. Then Delta struck, much more contagious than Alpha.

It’s unclear how Omicron would compete in a place like the United States where this strong Delta variant is responsible for more than 99% of current cases of Covid-19, said Louis Mansky, director of the Institute of Virology. molecular from the University of Minnesota.

Even in parts of South Africa, a reported jump in cases caused by Omicron may not indicate the mutant is more contagious than Delta, Lemieux said.

“We really don’t know if Omicron is outperforming Delta or if it has become the dominant strain in a few places just by chance,” he said.

To better understand Omicron, scientists are trying to understand how it emerged. He is not a descendant of Delta. A popular theory is that a person with a severely weakened immune system had a coronavirus infection that they couldn’t shake for so long that mutations built up.

“It’s completely bizarre,” said Bedford, whose variants circulating in the summer of 2020 appear to be Omicron’s closest relatives.

Viruses mutate every time they spread and it is possible that Omicron will simmer undetected somewhere with poor Covid-19 tests. But Bedford said its sudden onset is more likely the result of the cat and mouse struggle as an immunocompromised body fights a virus that repeatedly alters its spike protein to avoid detection. (Bedford receives funding from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute, which also supports the Associated Press Health and Science department.)

What to watch

Scientists say it can take two to four weeks to get important answers.

One of the biggest concerns is how far Omicron might escape immunity. So far, the beta variant has been the biggest challenge for vaccine protection, but this mutant, fortunately, has not spread widely.

“It is highly unlikely that this new variant has escaped all the antibodies generated after vaccination,” said immunologist E. John Wherry of the University of Pennsylvania.

Vaccine makers and other scientists are setting up lab tests to determine how well antibodies generated by vaccines or a previous infection can fight Omicron compared to earlier variants. This takes time because first they have to grow samples of the so-called “pseudovirus” which contain the new disturbing mutations.

But that “won’t be the whole story,” Moss said.

The immune system has several layers of defense beyond antibodies, including T cells which should help prevent serious illness even if a person suffers from a breakthrough infection.

Experts will also carefully monitor the prevalence of infections caused by Omicron and their severity.

Regarding treatments, Regeneron says its Covid-19 antibody cocktail may be less effective against Omicron although more testing is needed. But there are antiviral pills in the works, a long-needed new option that shouldn’t be affected by the Omicron mutations.

What to do now?

Scientists urge people to take simple precautions while waiting for answers – hide indoors, avoid crowds, get vaccinated if you’re among the 45 million U.S. adults who still haven’t been vaccinated – whatever the variant in circulation.

One thing is clear: vaccination remains critical. Today’s gunfire protects against Delta and other versions of the virus that are already raging, whether Omicron spreads or collapses. The United States and other countries are urging those eligible for the boosters not to wait because the extra dose causes a huge explosion of anti-virus antibodies.

“People who are reluctant to get the vaccine should see a good reason to get the vaccine. People who have yet to get their boosters and are eligible should get their boosters. And then I think we have to let the scientists and the public health practitioners are doing their job, ”said Lemieux.