Omicron: best and worst case scenarios, experts say

Experts have mapped out what the spread of the Omicron strain might look like – and returned with results ranging from best-case scenario to worst-case scenario.

Researchers at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) said they used experimental data to examine how Omicron might transmit over the next few months.

But even in the most positive results, the impact of Omicron is expected to be severe.

Here are the possibilities the country faces as the new variant takes hold, assuming it has the same level of disease as the Delta variant:

READ MORE: “First” Omicron symptoms observed in 90% of identified cases

The most optimistic scenario

The more optimistic outlook would see Omicron’s weak immune breakout from vaccines, as well as high effectiveness of booster shots.

But even in this situation, a wave of infection is still expected, which could lead to a peak of more than 2,000 daily hospitalizations, with 175,000 hospitalizations and 24,700 deaths between December 1 of this year and April 30, 2022. .

The most pessimistic scenario

In the worst case, there is a strong immune evasion of the vaccines and poor effectiveness of the boosters.

This wave of infection could lead to a peak in hospitalizations about twice the peak seen in January 2021, if no further control measures are taken.

That could cause 492,000 hospitalizations and 74,800 deaths, according to the study, which has yet to be peer reviewed.

What are the scientists saying?

Dr Rosanna Barnard, Center for Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases at LSHTM, who co-led the research, said: “These early projections help guide our understanding of potential futures in a rapidly changing situation.

“In our most optimistic scenario, Omicron’s impact in early 2022 would be reduced with light control measures such as working from home.

“However, our most pessimistic scenario suggests we may have to endure tighter restrictions to ensure the NHS doesn’t get overwhelmed.

“Wearing a mask, social distancing and booster shots are essential, but may not be enough.

“No one wants to experience another lockdown, but last resort measures may be needed to protect healthcare services if Omicron has a significant level of immune escape or otherwise increased transmissibility compared to Delta.

“It is crucial that decision-makers consider the wider societal impact of these measures, not just the epidemiology. “

The reality of Omicron

Many experts have already stated that the Omicron is more heritable and expect it to quickly overtake Delta as the dominant variant.

Eleanor Riley, professor of immunology and infectious diseases, said Omicron is spreading so quickly that people are “very likely” to meet someone infected with the Covid-19 variant unless they “live life. of a hermit “.

The University of Edinburgh scholar also warned that “a lot of people” could still end up in hospital even if the coronavirus mutation turns out to cause milder symptoms than the Delta variant.

She told BBC Radio 4’s Today show: “There is a huge ‘if’ about it, ‘is it sweeter?’ I think it is very dangerous to compare the data from the South Africa, say, UK.

“Even though it’s milder and therefore a smaller proportion of infected people end up in the hospital, since so many people are going to come across this virus, even a small proportion of a lot of people, that’s a lot of people in the hospital. “

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“These results suggest that Omicron has the potential to cause substantial increases in the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths in populations with high immunity levels, including England,” reads the authored article. by scientists.

“The reintroduction of additional non-pharmaceutical interventions may be necessary to prevent hospitalizations from exceeding levels seen in England during the previous peak in winter 2020-2021.”

As experts search for more information on the new strain, they believe it could “escape vaccines to a large extent.”

CMMID’s Dr Nick Davies, who co-led the new study, said: “These are early estimates, but they suggest that, overall, Omicron is quickly outperforming Delta in avoiding vaccines to a large extent.”

Protection offered

These scenarios could materialize if no additional control measures are implemented beyond the current Plan B introduced by the UK government.

The team, which also sits at the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modeling (SPI-M) or the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said wearing the mask, working from home and booster shots may not suffice and predict a peak in daily hospitalizations of 2,400 in January.

Should the best-case scenario arise, the implementation of control measures in early 2022 – such as restrictions on indoor seating, the closure of some entertainment venues and restrictions on the number of people who can congregate. in the same location – would be enough to significantly control the wave, reducing hospital admissions by 53,000 and deaths by 7,600, they say.

But in the worst-case scenario (high immune escape from vaccines and lower effectiveness of boosters), modelers say stricter measures may be needed to keep maximum hospital admissions below the January 2021 peak.

Number 10 argued there were “no plans” to go further with the measures in England, amid reports that proposals are being drawn for a Plan C, with even more rules. strict.

Dr Davies added that “the booster program will significantly lessen the impact of Omicron in England”, urging people to accept the offer as it is difficult to predict the true level of protection offered by two doses of AstraZeneca and from Pfizer.

On Friday, an analysis by the British Health Safety Agency (UKHSA) found that the AstraZeneca and Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines offered “much lower” levels of protection against symptomatic infections with Omicron compared to Delta.

But the UKHSA said a booster dose gives about 70% to 75% protection against symptomatic infection with Omicron, as they urged people to have their boosters.

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