how worried should we be and will Christmas be canceled?

With just over a week before Christmas, and cases of Omicron variant Increasing rapidly by the day, there are new concerns that the holiday season will be disrupted for a second year in a row. Here’s what we know so far about the cases and whether more restrictions will be needed.

Are the figures worrying?

Omicron cases are doubling every two to three days, much faster than Delta. Another 1,239 cases of Omicron were reported in the UK on Sunday, bringing the total to 3,137. To put that in context, there were a total of just three confirmed cases two weeks ago.

Scientists have predicted it will be the dominant variant in the UK by the middle of this month. The UK Health Safety Agency has said there could be 1 million infections – which is a higher number than confirmed cases as many people are unknowingly infected – every day by the end of this month, but this is based on modeling if there were any restrictions and people continued as usual.

Nonetheless, the rate of transmission is of great concern, because even if only a small proportion of people with Omicron are severely affected, the scale of infections will mean more deaths in hospital than with Delta.

UKHSA chief medical adviser Dr Susan Hopkins said on Sunday that Omicron was a “big wave” that “is coming straight to us.”

How serious are the cases?

For the first time in the UK, there are people hospitalized with the Omicron variant, two weeks after the first cases were confirmed. But that’s only a small number out of over 3,000, which is encouraging so far.

And it’s unclear if the Omicron variant caused them to be admitted, or if they were hospitalized for something else. It is not known if they have been vaccinated, or how old they are.

Until such details are known, it is too early to say whether Omicron is causing significantly less severe disease than Delta. In South Africa, there have been consistent reports over the past three weeks that people admitted to hospital with Omicron have less severe illness and fewer patients need oxygen.

But because the first cases are more likely to be younger, because they are more active in a population, and because it takes two to three weeks for people to end up in the hospital, one cannot yet conclude that this is a “softer variant”.

Will Omicron wave lead to NHS flooding?

It depends on four factors: how much less severe is Omicron – if it really is – compared to Delta, how quickly the booster deployment can occur, how much current Plan B restrictions reduce the number of daily cases, and whether there are new “Plans C” measures that go further. Even though Omicron was half as severe, meaning 10 people were admitted to hospital versus 20 for Delta, the large number of cases would see more hospital patients overall.

According to three scenarios modeled by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, the most optimistic predicts a peak in daily hospitalizations of 2,400 in January, which is just over half of last January’s peak. The worst-case scenario projects more than 7,000 admissions per day, nearly double the peak last winter, which would almost certainly overwhelm the NHS.

The government plans to speed up the rollout of the booster injections after new evidence showed that two injections were not enough to prevent people from becoming infected with Omicron. Plan B measures will help to reduce transmission to some extent, especially working from home, but even stricter restrictions under a Diet C would have a greater effect.

What will happen at Christmas and will there be a Plan C?

As it stands, the government does not intend to prevent the mixing of households during the holiday season, but this cannot be ruled out, especially if there is evidence that Omicron does not. is not significantly less severe than Delta.

Possible Plan C measures, such as 10-day isolation for all contacts of covid cases, more masks in indoor settings, check-ins and table service only in reception facilities, are likely in a few weeks or even a few days. But it would still allow families to mingle at Christmas.

A household blending ban, or even a full lockdown, could be introduced if Omicron severity data worsens and the NHS risks reaching breaking point, but it will likely be after Christmas, if at all.