UK data supports omicron causes fewer hospitalizations, but also shows boosters are declining

Based on cases in the UK, a person with omicron is estimated to be 31% to 45% less likely to go to a hospital emergency department compared to a person with delta, “and 50 to 70% less likely to be admitted to hospital, ”the agency says.

He warned that the analysis is “preliminary and very uncertain” due to the small number of omicron patients in hospitals and the fact that most belonged to younger age groups. As of December 20, 132 people had been admitted to UK hospitals with a confirmed omicron. Fourteen of them died, all between the ages of 52 and 96.

Countries around the world are watching Britain closely, where omicron is now dominant and COVID-19 cases have increased by more than 50% in one week.
Experts not involved in the analysis called it encouraging.

“To me it’s a tiny ray of sunshine among all the dark clouds,” said Dr. Jonathan Li, director of Harvard / Brigham Virology Specialty Laboratory.

Signs that omicron may cause less severe disease than delta also match lab data suggesting omicron does not grow as well in cells derived from the lungs, Li said.

The findings add to similar data from South Africa, added Dr Bruce Walker, director of the Ragon Institute of Massachusetts General Hospital, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard.

Walker said there were still unknowns, such as the relative severity of omicron in someone who has been vaccinated compared to someone who has already had COVID-19 or someone who has not. not vaccinated and did not have the disease.
Vaccination remains crucial, he said.

“Ultimately, the best way for someone to prepare for this new wave is to get vaccinated, and if someone is already vaccinated, to receive a booster,” said Walker, a researcher at Howard Hughes Medical. Institute, which also supports the Health and Science Department of the Associated Press.

According to research by the UK agency, the protection offered by a vaccine booster against symptomatic omicron infection appears to wane after about 10 weeks, although protection against hospitalization and serious illness is likely to last longer. long time.

The analysis “shows an encouraging early signal that people who contract the omicron variant may have a relatively lower risk of hospitalization than those who contract other variants,” said UK HSA chief executive Jenny Harries.

But she added that “cases are currently very high in the UK, and even a relatively small proportion requiring hospitalization could lead to serious illness in a significant number of people.”

The analysis follows two studies, from Imperial College London and Scottish researchers, which found that patients with omicron were 20% to 68% less likely to require hospital treatment than those with delta.

Even if the first studies are confirmed, the new variant could still overwhelm healthcare systems due to the sheer number of infections. The U.K. health agency said omicron appeared to be able to re-infect people more easily than previous variants, with 9.5% of omicron cases found in people who had previously had COVID-19 – a figure that, according to her, was probably underestimated.

Britain reported nearly 120,000 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases on Thursday, the highest on record during the pandemic and on day two the number topped 100,000.

The UK Office for National Statistics estimated that around 1 in 45 people in private households in England – 1.2 million people – had COVID-19 in the week to December 16, the highest level seen in the pandemic.

The British Conservative government this month reinstated rules requiring face masks in stores and ordered people to show proof of vaccination or a negative coronavirus test before entering nightclubs and other crowded places in the goal of slowing the spread of omicron.

The government said on Thursday it would not impose any new restrictions until Christmas, but could do so soon after.

Officials also urged people to get tested regularly and reduce their social contact. Many in Britain have heeded this advice, leaving entertainment and hospitality businesses in shock at what should be their busiest time of year.

Experts stressed that staying out of the hospital shouldn’t be the only goal; people should also try to avoid the long COVID-19, which can result from mild infections.

“We are all delighted to hear that this is immediately less serious in terms of illness,” Walker said. “But do we know what the possibility of a long COVID is? No, we don’t. There hasn’t been enough time (that has passed) to know if omicron is associated with a long COVID. “

Louis Mansky, director of the Institute for Molecular Virology at the University of Minnesota, said there was not enough data to know how the omicron would perform in the United States.

“It comes down to the health of the average American,” Mansky said. “We have other epidemics in terms of obesity, cardiovascular disease,” he said, explaining that “the general health of the individual” will be an important factor in the degree of disease he may contract. because of omicron.