Omicron Covid variant can be spread through ‘infected breath’, warns government scientist

People only need to be exposed to “an infected puff of breath” to catch the Omicron variant, a government scientist has warned. England is gearing up for an unrestricted New Years Eve.

Professor Peter Openshaw, a member of the Advisory Group on New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats (Nervtag), said he was “lucky” that Covid-19 “was not so infectious when it first passed through both to human-to-human transmission “.

“Omicron is so contagious,” BBC Breakfast said.

“We have had several iterations of this virus going through different stages of its evolution. It ended up being so contagious that it almost only needs a puff of infected breath and you could get infected. “

He said it would be especially dangerous in countries with low vaccination rates.

“We are in a relatively good position in countries like the UK, but I think you have to remember that in many parts of the world vaccination rates are only around 5%, and they are at risk. to this very infectious virus with very little protection.

it comes after the government has given the green light to New Year’s Eve celebrations in England, despite the imposition of some restrictions by Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales.

The UK scored a new record of daily coronavirus cases yesterday, registering 189,213 new positive tests in the last 24 hours.

Prof Openshaw also warned that the healthcare system could be overwhelmed by the skyrocketing Omicron cases, with the system’s capacity likely to be breached “fairly quickly”.

He said he was “very concerned” about how NHS staff would cope with the growing number of Omicron cases.

Absences from the NHS due to Covid climbed 30% in one week, from 18,829 employees on December 19 to 24,632 on Boxing Day.

“I think we haven’t quite hit the threshold set by the government in terms of NHS overflow, but it looks like it will be hit pretty quickly,” he told BBC Breakfast.

“What concerns me a lot is our NHS staff, my dear colleagues who have worked so, so hard through the repeated waves of this infection. How are they going to get out of it?

‘We really need to care for them, give them all our support and do everything we can to make the NHS a great place to work, which of course it is, but I am really very worried about the NHS staff . “

Professor Christina Pagel said that even though Omicron appeared to leave fewer people in need of intensive care, the increase in the number of cases would still threaten the capacity of the NHS.

“It seems less admissions require intensive care (good) but needing a hospital is not a good thing and is severely restricting the ability of the NHS to treat other conditions – especially with so many sick staff “she said in a social media post.

“A service-based NHS crisis instead of the ICU is always an NHS crisis.”

Professor Pagel also warned that the situation was likely to worsen, predicting that cases and hospitalizations would increase after an increase in the household mix over Christmas.

“Reported levels in England are now more than twice as high as the previous peak last January and more than three times as high as at the start of December,” she said in a media post. social.

“The latest figures reflect infections before the Christmas mix. These figures are underestimated.

She also warned that ongoing testing shortages would make problems worse, as people would not be able to test themselves before socializing on New Years Eve.

Home PCR and sidestream kits were unavailable again this morning; on the fifth day of intermittent shortages.

“As I (and many others) warned a few weeks ago, we are now at the limit of how many tests we can perform – and that means the number of cases is less and less of an indicator. spread, ”she added. “Positivity is what we need to be careful about. Lack of testing also increases transmission – especially during the New Years. ”

NHS braces for increase but new borders ‘not yet needed’

Meanwhile, the NHS supplier chief warned it would take at least two weeks for any new restriction to reduce the hospitalization rate, but said he did not yet think curbs were needed.

Chris Hopson said that while trusted leaders did not yet believe restrictions were needed, “they may be needed at a sustained rate” in the future and that it would take “about a fortnight for further restrictions to affect hospital admissions levels “.

“It’s the government that sets the rules on the restrictions, not the NHS, and we know the government has set a high threshold for the introduction of new restrictions,” he told the Today program of BBC Radio 4.

“So on this basis, trusted leaders can see why the government is arguing that in the absence of a wave of critically ill elderly patients coming to the hospital, that threshold has not yet been crossed.”

“But we still don’t know if an increase is going to happen, and in fact, we’re talking exactly about the preparations we are making for that increase right now.

“So in terms of restrictions, I think we are in exactly the same place that we have been in the last fortnight, that is, the government has to be prepared to introduce tighter restrictions at a speed real if they are needed. “